Human induced climate change detected in Irish weather records

Human induced climate change detected in Irish weather records  RTE.ie

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Oct 21, 2023 - 14:00
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Human induced climate change detected in Irish weather records

Analysis: New Research Finds Human-Driven Climate Change Discernible in Irish Weather Records

By [Author Name]

Introduction

News about the changing climate is constantly making headlines, with events such as Canadian wildfires, floods across Europe, and storms in Ireland wreaking havoc across the planet. While scientists and international bodies like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have been warning about these events for decades, it has taken disasters to spur action. However, there are still individuals who deny the science behind climate change, often arguing that the changes are not caused by human actions.

The Importance of Discerning Human-Driven Climate Change

Discerning a human-driven climate change signal in observed weather records is crucial for identifying the impacts of climate change that require adaptation. Previous research papers have examined trends in Irish weather records, but none have specifically attributed observed changes to anthropogenic climate change.

The Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST)

At a planetary scale, the Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) is used to track changes in climate and inform international policy. The Paris Agreement, for example, aims to limit GMST increases to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels to avoid dangerous climate change. While GMST is a powerful representation of human-driven climate change, it is not directly experienced by everyone on the planet in the same way. Regional and local changes in climate and variability have a significant impact on people’s day-to-day experiences, particularly in mid-latitude regions like Ireland.

New Research on Irish Weather Observations

A new research project funded by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Met Éireann, called HydroDARE, set out to determine if an anthropogenic climate change signal is discernible in Irish weather observations. Previous assumptions suggested that the Irish climate was too variable to detect a clear signal of anthropogenic climate change at this point in time.

Methodology

The research team, consisting of students from the MSc Climate Change program at Maynooth University and researchers from Maynooth and Met Éireann, compiled temperature and rainfall records dating back to 1850. They then linked changes in local temperature and rainfall records to global temperature changes and used statistical analysis to quantify the extent of climate change in Ireland relative to early industrial conditions.

Findings

The research found that the annual mean temperature in Ireland shows the largest signal of human-driven climate change compared to other variables. The rate of warming on the Island of Ireland is approximately 0.88°C per 1 degree increase in GMST, which is considered “unfamiliar” relative to early industrial climate. Certain weather stations in eastern and central regions show an even greater rate of warming, with an increase of 1.14°C per degree of warming in GMST found at Phoenix Park and over 1°C at Armagh, Birr, Dublin, and Glasnevin.

Long-term weather stations showing where the anthropogenic climate change signal in annual and seasonal average temperature has emerged as unusual (orange) or unfamiliar (red) relative to early industrial climate. The direction of the triangle reflects the direction of the long-term trend. Winter is not shown as no station shows the emergence of winter average temperature from natural variability. Image: Supplied by Conor Murphy

Long-term weather stations showing where the anthropogenic climate change signal in annual and seasonal average temperature has emerged as unusual (orange) or unfamiliar (red) relative to early industrial climate. The direction of the triangle reflects the direction of the long-term trend. Winter is not shown as no station shows the emergence of winter average temperature from natural variability. Image: Supplied by Conor Murphy

When examining temperature extremes, such as cool days and nights and warm nights, the research identified the emergence of “unfamiliar” conditions relative to the natural baseline. In terms of rainfall data, fewer stations and indicators showed a clear climate change signal due to the large variability in rainfall from year to year and season to season. However, many stations demonstrated substantial increases in winter rainfall per degree of warming in GMST, indicating a significant increase in flood risk.

Implications and Conclusion

The research findings clearly indicate that human-driven climate change is now discernible in Irish weather records. Out of the 903 climate indicators analyzed, 37% showed the emergence of conditions considered at least “unusual” relative to early industrial or natural climate. These results emphasize the need for greater emphasis on adaptation to the impacts of climate change in national and local climate policies. It is evident that climate change is already affecting our weather observations.

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

  1. SDG 13: Climate Action

    • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters
    • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning
    • Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising, and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning
    • Target 13.b: Promote mechanisms to raise capacity for planning and management in least developed countries and small island developing States
    • Indicator 13.1.1: Number of deaths, missing persons, and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population
    • Indicator 13.2.1: Number of countries that have integrated mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning into primary, secondary, and tertiary curricula
    • Indicator 13.3.1: Number of countries that have communicated the strengthening of institutional, systemic, and individual capacity-building to implement adaptation, mitigation, and technology transfer
    • Indicator 13.b.1: Number of least developed countries and small island developing States that are receiving specialized support, and amount of support, including finance, technology, and capacity-building, for mechanisms for raising capacities for effective climate change-related planning and management

Analysis

The article discusses the discernible impact of human-driven climate change on Irish weather records. Based on this information, the relevant SDG is SDG 13: Climate Action. The targets under SDG 13 that can be identified are Target 13.1, Target 13.2, Target 13.3, and Target 13.b. The indicators mentioned in the article that can be used to measure progress towards these targets are Indicator 13.1.1, Indicator 13.2.1, Indicator 13.3.1, and Indicator 13.b.1.

Table: SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

SDGs Targets Indicators
SDG 13: Climate Action
  • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters
  • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning
  • Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising, and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning
  • Target 13.b: Promote mechanisms to raise capacity for planning and management in least developed countries and small island developing States
  • Indicator 13.1.1: Number of deaths, missing persons, and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population
  • Indicator 13.2.1: Number of countries that have integrated mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning into primary, secondary, and tertiary curricula
  • Indicator 13.3.1: Number of countries that have communicated the strengthening of institutional, systemic, and individual capacity-building to implement adaptation, mitigation, and technology transfer
  • Indicator 13.b.1: Number of least developed countries and small island developing States that are receiving specialized support, and amount of support, including finance, technology, and capacity-building, for mechanisms for raising capacities for effective climate change-related planning and management

Behold! This splendid article springs forth from the wellspring of knowledge, shaped by a wondrous proprietary AI technology that delved into a vast ocean of data, illuminating the path towards the Sustainable Development Goals. Remember that all rights are reserved by SDG Investors LLC, empowering us to champion progress together.

Source: rte.ie

 

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