Israel-Gaza war may wipe 23% off Lebanon’s GDP as conflict hits tourism

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Impact on Middle Eastern Countries

Introduction

A drop in tourist arrivals to the Middle East due to the Israel-Gaza war will have a significant impact on neighboring countries, particularly Lebanon. The war is expected to cause a loss in gross domestic product (GDP) of up to 23% for Lebanon, which already has a struggling economy. This article examines the potential consequences of the war on the region’s tourism sector and the implications for sustainable development.

Impact on Lebanon

• If tourism revenue falls by 10% to 30%, Lebanon’s GDP could be reduced by 10%.
• In a worst-case scenario with a 70% drop in tourism receipts, Lebanon’s GDP could be hit by 23%.
• Lebanon relies heavily on tourism, with it contributing to 26% of the country’s current account receipts.

Challenges Faced by Lebanon

Lebanon is already facing multiple challenges, including foreign currency shortages, currency depreciation, hyperinflation, and a political vacuum. The country cannot afford to lose critical foreign currency inflows from tourism, especially given its current economic situation.

Impact on Other Middle Eastern Countries

• Jordan, Egypt, and Israel could also suffer from the decline in tourism due to their shared borders with Lebanon and the potential for the conflict to spill over.
• Last year, tourism contributed 21% of Jordan’s current account receipts, 12% in Egypt, and 3% for Israel.
• A 70% drop in tourism revenue could have significant consequences for Egypt, including a reduction in foreign exchange reserves by up to 26.6% and a 1.8% decrease in GDP.

Broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region Outlook

The impact on tourism flows in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Turkey, and Iraq is unlikely to be significant. However, higher perceived security risks could dampen the inflow of tourists in the broader MENA region.

Specific Country Impacts

• The UAE has a large and diversified tourism industry that may be affected to some extent, but the decline is not expected to be significant. The country has already seen tourist inflows exceeding pre-pandemic levels.
• For Saudi Arabia and Iraq, a large part of tourism is for religious purposes and would be less susceptible to cancellations.

Conclusion

The Israel-Gaza war and the subsequent decline in tourism have significant implications for the sustainable development of Middle Eastern countries. It is crucial for these countries to find alternative sources of income and strengthen their economies to mitigate the impact of such conflicts in the future.

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

1. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

   • Target 8.9: By 2030, devise and implement policies to promote sustainable tourism that creates jobs and promotes local culture and products.
   • Indicator 8.9.1: Tourism direct GDP as a proportion of total GDP and in growth rate.

2. SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production

   • Target 12.8: By 2030, ensure that people everywhere have the relevant information and awareness for sustainable development and lifestyles in harmony with nature.
   • Indicator 12.8.1: Extent to which (i) global citizenship education and (ii) education for sustainable development (including climate change education) are mainstreamed in (a) national education policies; (b) curricula; (c) teacher education; and (d) student assessment.

The article highlights the impact of the Israel-Gaza war on tourist arrivals in the Middle East, specifically focusing on Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, and Israel. Based on the content of the article, the following analysis can be made:

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The issues highlighted in the article are connected to SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth and SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the article’s content, the specific targets that can be identified are:

• Target 8.9: By 2030, devise and implement policies to promote sustainable tourism that creates jobs and promotes local culture and products.
• Target 12.8: By 2030, ensure that people everywhere have the relevant information and awareness for sustainable development and lifestyles in harmony with nature.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Yes, there are indicators mentioned in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets:

• Indicator 8.9.1: Tourism direct GDP as a proportion of total GDP and in growth rate.
• Indicator 12.8.1: Extent to which (i) global citizenship education and (ii) education for sustainable development (including climate change education) are mainstreamed in (a) national education policies; (b) curricula; (c) teacher education; and (d) student assessment.

4. Table: SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

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Source: thenationalnews.com

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