Quebec’s Immigration Policies Have Set its Economic Growth Lower than Canada’s National Average

A Report on Quebec’s Economic Growth and the Impact of Immigration

Introduction

A new provincial outlook report by Mouvement Desjardins economists forecasts that Quebec’s economic growth is likely to fall short of the national average for a second consecutive year in 2023.

Economic Slowdown in Quebec

This belief stems from observing Quebec’s slide into a “fairly light” recession in the second half of this year, which is a sign of the dwindling provincial economic strength following eight straight Bank of Canada interest-rate hikes from March 2022 to January 2023.

“Things are moving in slow motion,” said senior economist at Desjardins in Lévis, Hélène Bégin. “Economic data is relatively weak. A lot of economic indicators are weaker in Quebec than elsewhere.”

Comparison with National Average

For illustration purposes, the provincial GDP climbed by only 0.9 in the first four months of 2023, which is dwarfed by the 2.3 percent national average.

Residential construction has steadily fallen in Quebec, and there is “only a slight” rebound in the resale market. This is in combination with a fall in provincial business investments and international exports, while the same metrics are holding up on a national scale.

Factors Affecting Quebec’s Economy

The GDP drop of 0.4 percent in April, according to Bégin, is a foreteller of negative growth for the entire second quarter due in part to forest fires, which have unprecedentedly stunted output and exports from the paper and wood industries, among others.

The pattern of a lower GDP growth in comparison to the national average is similar to the one from last year, when Quebec’s real GDP growth of 2.8 percent lagged the 3.4 percent at the Canada-wide level. Moreover, it is further predicted to stretch into early next year.

According to Desjardins economists, the primary reason for Quebec’s economy being negatively affected in the ways described above is the slower population growth when compared to the rest of Canada.

Quebec’s population grew by only 2.1 percent in the year ending in April 2023, which falls short of the 3.1 percent national average. Ontario meanwhile witnessed a population expansion of 3.4 percent over the same time-period.

As per Bégin, interprovincial migrations do not bring in a large workforce, and Quebec also has an older-than-average population when compared to the rest of Canada.

When these factors are combined with the fact that international immigration and immigrant integration in Quebec are weak compared to national rates, it is evident that the labour market has excess demand which is insufficiently met by the current immigration levels.

This resultantly creates less demographic support for the economy.

Impact on Labour Market

The Canadian Federation of Independent Business’ (CFIB) recent study reported that several Quebec regions should expect severe labour shortages in the coming years unless the government encourages the expansion of provincial immigration targets – especially outside of Montreal.

In March 2023, there was a projected annual shortfall of 18,000 immigrants in Quebec, with Montreal and Laval being the only exceptions to the rule.

However, on June 7th the Quebec government Coalition Avenir outlined a slew of proposed changes in its Official Gazette, that will impose stronger French language requirements across most permanent and temporary immigration programs.

Once implemented, these new requirements will make it harder for Quebec employers to attract top international talent. They will also render Quebec less attractive to foreign nationals as a temporary or permanent settlement choice.

CFIB suggested that luring immigrants away from the immigration hubs could be achieved by reducing paperwork, making housing more affordable, increasing services such as childcare for families, and making financial incentives available for newcomers. A speedier Canada citizenship process for foreign workers who want to settle in Quebec could also be implemented.

However, these observations will unlikely address the more acute issue of the proposed new immigration rules that will likely come into force later this year.

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

1. Goal 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
2. Goal 10: Reduced Inequalities
3. Goal 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
4. Goal 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

Conclusion

In conclusion, Quebec’s economic growth is projected to fall short of the national average for a second consecutive year in 2023. The slower population growth, weak international immigration, and immigrant integration rates in Quebec contribute to the province’s economic challenges. The impact is evident in lower GDP growth, falling residential construction, and a decline in business investments and exports. These factors also lead to labour shortages in several Quebec regions. The proposed changes in immigration rules, including stronger language requirements, may further hinder Quebec’s ability to attract top international talent. To address these challenges, it is important for the government to encourage the expansion of provincial immigration targets and implement measures to make Quebec more attractive to immigrants and foreign workers.

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators Analysis

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
• SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities
• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

The article discusses the economic growth and labor market challenges in Quebec, which are connected to SDG 8. The article also highlights the issue of reduced population growth and immigration rates in Quebec, which relates to SDG 10. Additionally, the article mentions the need for regional development and attracting immigrants outside of Montreal, which aligns with SDG 11. Finally, the article suggests the importance of partnerships and collaboration to address the labor shortages and immigration challenges, linking to SDG 17.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

• SDG 8.1: Sustain per capita economic growth in accordance with national circumstances and, in particular, at least 7 percent gross domestic product growth per annum in the least developed countries.
• SDG 10.2: By 2030, empower and promote the social, economic and political inclusion of all, irrespective of age, sex, disability, race, ethnicity, origin, religion or economic or other status.
• SDG 11.1: By 2030, ensure access for all to adequate, safe and affordable housing and basic services and upgrade slums.
• SDG 17.17: Encourage and promote effective public, public-private and civil society partnerships, building on the experience and resourcing strategies of partnerships.

Based on the article’s content, the specific targets that can be identified are SDG 8.1, which focuses on sustaining economic growth, and SDG 10.2, which aims to promote social and economic inclusion. Additionally, SDG 11.1 is relevant as it emphasizes access to adequate housing and basic services. Lastly, SDG 17.17 highlights the importance of partnerships to address the challenges discussed in the article.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate
• Population growth rate
• Immigration rates
• Labor market indicators (e.g., employment rate, unemployment rate)
• Housing affordability

The article mentions several indicators that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets. The GDP growth rate is mentioned as an indicator of economic growth. The population growth rate and immigration rates are indicators of demographic changes and social inclusion. Labor market indicators, such as employment and unemployment rates, can provide insights into the labor market challenges. Lastly, housing affordability is mentioned as a factor that can attract immigrants and promote sustainable communities.

Table: SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Behold! This splendid article springs forth from the wellspring of knowledge, shaped by a wondrous proprietary AI technology that delved into a vast ocean of data, illuminating the path towards the Sustainable Development Goals. Remember that all rights are reserved by SDG Investors LLC, empowering us to champion progress together.

Source: cimmigrationnews.com

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