South Africa ‘beats climate goal’ through load shedding? Why this viral claim misleads

Presidential climate commission is source of claim, says Bloomberg

We asked Bloomberg for evidence that South Africa had beaten its climate goal.

Antony Sguazzin, who wrote the article, told us the claim was not based on data, but was a direct quote from the presidential climate commission. The PCC is an independent body established by South African president Cyril Ramaphosa to drive the country’s transition to a low-carbon economy.

Crispian Olver is the commission’s executive director. In the article, he is quoted as saying: “We reckon we are well within the range of meeting the 2030 target.”

South Africa is part of the 196-member Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty that aims to limit the increase in the global average temperature to below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels.

All countries in the treaty have to put forward nationally determined contributions, or NDCs, where they show the specific steps they will follow to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the changes.

South Africa entered its first NDC under the treaty in 2015. The country committed to reducing its emissions to between 398 and 510 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2-eq) by 2025 and between 350 and 420 Mt CO2-eq by 2030.

Carbon dioxide is the primary anthropogenic, or human-made, greenhouse gas. It is the reference gas against which other greenhouse gases are measured, leading to the term carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-eq).

South Africa strongly relies on coal-based energy, which contributed an average of 91.8% of total carbon dioxide emissions between 2000 and 2015. In 2021, coal contributed 86% of the country’s total electricity production.

Head of commission was misquoted

We asked Olver whether he had been quoted correctly and whether the commission had any data to back up the claim.

“The statement I made … was that the emissions were most likely within the NDC range, due to low energy availability factors and load shedding,” Olver said.

He said the Bloomberg article quoted him as though he had said the country was within the NDC range and also didn’t make clear that he did not specify which NDC target range – 2025 or 2030.

“My statement was based on the original modelling work we had done for the NDC and the assumptions that went into this about EAFs.”

The energy availability factor (EAF) is the maximum energy availability minus the total unavailability, expressed as a percentage.

For example, there would be maximum available energy if all the country’s power stations were running at full capacity. But energy is often unavailable due to planned or unplanned outages for maintenance, faults, load reduction or load shedding.

This calculation does not include renewable energy (such as solar power), independent power producers or imports of energy.

‘Many variables at play’ in determining current emission values

Steve Nicholls, the PCC’s head of climate mitigation, sent us a comprehensive report with data to support their statement.

In the report, the PCC said that there was a time lag in emissions inventory data. South Africa emitted 450 Mt CO2-eq in 2020 and so would be within the 2025 NDC range (between 398 and 510 Mt CO2-eq) if it maintained its emissions at this level.

However, this would still be slightly above the desired range for 2030, which is between 350 and 420

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure
• SDG 13: Climate Action

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

• SDG 7.2: Increase the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix
• SDG 9.4: Upgrade infrastructure and retrofit industries to make them sustainable
• SDG 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• Percentage of energy generated from renewable sources
• Reduction in carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-eq) emissions
• Inclusion of climate change measures in national policies and planning

Table: SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Note: The specific values or measurement methods for the indicators are not provided in the article.

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Source: africacheck.org

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