Thirsty sands: climate change and water stress in the Arabian Peninsula –

The Threat of Water Stress and Transboundary Aquifers in the Arabian Peninsula

The dangerous pairing of water stress and transboundary aquifers is a likely threat to geopolitical stability in the Arabian Peninsula.

Introduction

The recent flash flood that occurred in Dubai in April has drawn attention to the growing intensity and risks of extreme climate events caused by climate change. This phenomenon is becoming more frequent in the Arabian Peninsula, leading to concerns about water stress and regional geopolitical stability. Flash floods can directly impact water resources by surging the levels of wadis and contaminating groundwaters. They can also indirectly damage infrastructure such as pipelines, pumping stations, and bridges, with long-lasting effects on agriculture and human health. These events can exacerbate water stress, leading to tensions and conflicts over the region’s valuable water resources.

Climate Context and Groundwater Resources

The Arabian Peninsula is known as one of the harshest and most inhospitable climatic regions on Earth. It has a hyperarid climate characterized by extremely hot temperatures, significant temperature fluctuations, and elevated evaporation rates. Water scarcity is the major consequence of this climate, as evidenced by the Blue Water Sustainability Index. According to this index, water use and consumption in the Arabian Peninsula are unsustainable due to overexploitation of nonrenewable groundwaters for agricultural needs. Groundwaters are the primary water source in the region since it lacks surface water resources like river basins. Most groundwaters are transboundary aquifers shared among several countries, leading to issues concerning efficient water allocation.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has the largest share of transboundary aquifers, which affects its bargaining power with other regional players.

Climate Change’s Effects on Local Populations and Economies

Inhabitants of the Arabian Peninsula are highly exposed to both surface water stress and groundwater stress. The World Bank reports that in 2010, the percentage of population exposed to high or very high surface water stress was 100% in the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait, over 80% in Yemen, and around 65% in Saudi Arabia. Concerning groundwater stress, the percentage of affected inhabitants was 50% in Oman, 40% in Bahrain, over 30% in Yemen, and less than 30%, 20%, and 10% in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, respectively.

GDP per capita produced in the Arabian Peninsula is also significantly exposed to elevated groundwater stress. In 2010, approximately 75% of GDP per capita was affected in the UAE, 45% in Saudi Arabia, 55% in Qatar and Oman. Despite high water productivity in the region due to nonconventional water resources, water demand is expected to increase due to population and economic growth. The Arabian Peninsula is particularly susceptible to the influences of climate change due to its deadly combination of water scarcity, harsh climate, and reliance on fossil fuel.

Rising temperatures and climate changes are already being observed in the region, with negative effects on populations and economies. The central regions of Yemen and the southwestern regions of Saudi Arabia are experiencing warm changes, while flash floods are becoming more frequent. Rising temperatures will also impact human activity, particularly water-intensive agriculture due to increased evapotranspiration rates.

Projections for the Middle East and North Africa show that climate change and socioeconomic change will be the main drivers of surface water stress in 2030. Some countries will experience alterations driven by climate change, while others will be affected by socioeconomic change. The level of water stress in the Arabian Peninsula is already high, except for Yemen.

Regional Water-Related Disequilibria and Their Global Implications

Given the changing climate regime in the Arabian region and the already-high water stress level, future competition for water resources is likely to occur, especially for transboundary aquifers. This could lead to regional geopolitical instability. To meet increasing water demand and maintain water productivity, water management techniques such as cloud seeding and desalination need to be implemented.

Desalination has become crucial for fresh water supply in several Arabian countries, including Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. It is believed to be the sole long-term reliable and sustainable source of fresh water for the Arabian Peninsula. However, desalination is still more expensive than conventional water treatments and not affordable for all countries in the region. Yemen, in particular, is a likely crisis point due to its poverty and high population growth rate.

The combination of rising water demand, drought risks in Yemen, and flood risks in Oman, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia could result in a crisis for Yemen and instability for neighboring states. Competition for shared water resources may exacerbate conflicts and lead to the weaponization of water, as seen in previous instances. These regional disequilibria would have global implications, negatively affecting economies dependent on oil and the global economy itself due to the oil price’s role in financial instruments.

To address these challenges, regional cooperation should be promoted to balance water supply and meet inhabitants’ needs. Cooperative regulations on transboundary water resources would enhance water security and secure future economic development in the Arabian states.

^[1] The term “blue gold” was created by Maude Barlow and Tony Clarke in the book “Blue Gold: The Fight to Stop the Corporate Theft of the World’s Water.”

^[2] The Blue Water Sustainability Index is a dimensionless quantity ranging from 0 to 1 that expresses the portion of consumptive water use that is met from nonsustainable water sources.

^[3] Source: Beyond Scarcity: Water Security in the Middle East and North Africa, World Bank, 2017, p. 26-28

^[4] Source: Beyond Scarcity: Water Security in the Middle East and North Africa, World Bank, 2017, p. 35-36

^[5] See “Assessing exposure to climate extremes over the Arabian Peninsula using ERA5 reanalysis data: Spatial distribution and temporal trends,” Al-Sakkaf et al., 2024.

^[6] Source: Beyond Scarcity: Water Security in

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

SDGs Addressed or Connected to the Issues

• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation
• SDG 13: Climate Action
• SDG 16: Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions
• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

Specific Targets Based on the Article’s Content

1. Target 6.4: By 2030, substantially increase water-use efficiency across all sectors and ensure sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater to address water scarcity and substantially reduce the number of people suffering from water scarcity.
2. Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.
3. Target 16.1: Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere.
4. Target 17.17: Encourage and promote effective public, public-private, and civil society partnerships, building on the experience and resourcing strategies of partnerships.

Indicators Mentioned or Implied in the Article

• Indicator 6.4.2: Level of water stress: freshwater withdrawal as a proportion of available freshwater resources.
• Indicator 13.1.1: Number of deaths, missing persons, and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population.
• Indicator 16.1.1: Number of victims of intentional homicide per 100,000 population, by sex and age.
• Indicator 17.17.1: Amount of United States dollars committed to public-private and civil society partnerships.

Table: SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

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Fuente: iari.site

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