Guest editorial: 4 factors driving 2023’s extreme heat and climate disasters
Guest editorial: 4 factors driving 2023's extreme heat and climate ... The Park Record
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Record-Breaking Weather in 2023: Understanding the Factors and Implications
Between the record-breaking global heat and extreme downpours, it’s hard to ignore that something unusual is going on with the weather in 2023.
People have been quick to blame climate change — and they’re right, to a point: Human-caused global warming does play the biggest role. A recent study determined that the weeks-long heat wave in Texas and Mexico that started in June 2023 would have been virtually impossible without it.
However, the extremes this year are sharper than anthropogenic global warming alone would be expected to cause. Human activities that release greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere have been increasing temperatures gradually, at an average of 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit (0.1 Celsius) per decade.
The Role of El Niño
El Niño is a climate phenomenon that occurs every few years when surface water in the tropical Pacific reverses direction and heats up. That warms the atmosphere above, which influences temperatures and weather patterns around the globe.
Essentially, the atmosphere borrows heat out of the Pacific, and global temperatures increase slightly. This happened in 2016, the time of the last strong El Niño. Global temperatures increased by about 0.25 F (0.14 C) on average, making 2016 the warmest year on record. A weak El Niño also occurred in 2019-2020, contributing to 2020 becoming the world’s second-warmest year.
El Niño’s opposite, La Niña, involves cooler-than-usual Pacific currents flowing westward, absorbing heat out of the atmosphere, which cools the globe. The world just came out of three straight years of La Niña, meaning we’re experiencing an even greater temperature swing.
The Impact of Solar Fluctuations
The Sun may seem to shine at a constant rate, but it is a seething, churning ball of plasma whose radiating energy changes over many different time scales.
The Sun is slowly heating up and in half a billion years will boil away Earth’s oceans. On human time scales, however, the Sun’s energy output varies only slightly, about 1 part in 1,000, over a repeating 11-year cycle. The peaks of this cycle are too small for us to notice at a daily level, but they affect Earth’s climate systems.
Rapid convection within our Sun both generates a strong magnetic field aligned with its spin axis and causes this field to fully flip and reverse every 11 years. This is what causes the 11-year cycle in emitted solar radiation.
The Role of a Massive Volcanic Eruption
Volcanic eruptions can also significantly affect global climates. They usually do this by lowering global temperatures when erupted sulfate aerosols shield and block a portion of incoming sunlight – but not always.
In an unusual twist, the largest volcanic eruption of the 21st century so far, the 2022 eruption of Tonga’s Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai is having a warming and not cooling effect.
The eruption released an unusually small amount of cooling sulfate aerosols but an enormous amount of water vapor. The molten magma exploded underwater, vaporizing a huge volume of ocean water that erupted like a geyser high into the atmosphere.
Water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas, and the eruption may end up warming Earth’s surface by about 0.06 F (0.035 C), according to one estimate. Unlike the cooling sulfate aerosols, which are actually tiny droplets of sulfuric acid that fall out of the atmosphere within one to two years, water vapor is a gas that can stay in the atmosphere for many years. The warming impact of the Tonga volcano is expected to last for at least five years.
Underlying it all: Global Warming
All of this comes on top of anthropogenic, or human-caused, global warming.
Humans have raised global average temperatures by about 2 F (1.1 C) since 1900 by releasing large volumes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. For example, humans have increased the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by 50%, primarily through combustion of fossil fuels in vehicles and power plants. The warming from greenhouse gases is actually greater than 2 F (1.1 C), but it has been masked by other human factors that have a cooling effect, such as air pollution.
Implications for the Future
The next couple of years could be very rough.
If a strong El Niño develops over the next year, combined with the solar maximum and the effects of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption, Earth’s temperatures would likely soar to uncharted highs. According to climate modeling, this would likely mean even more heat waves, forest fires, flash floods, and other extreme weather events.
Both weather and climate forecasts have become very reliable in recent years, benefiting from vast amounts of data from Earth-orbiting satellites and enormous supercomputing power for forecasting the flow and interactions of heat and water among the complex components of the ocean, land, and atmosphere.
Unfortunately, climate modeling shows that as temperatures continue to increase, weather events get more extreme.
There is now a greater than 50% chance that Earth’s global temperature will reach 2.7 F (1.5 C) by the year 2028, at least temporarily, increasing the risk of triggering climate tipping points with even greater human impacts. Because of the unfortunate timing of several parts of the climate system, it seems that the odds are not in our favor.
SDGs, Targets, and Indicators
SDGs Addressed or Connected to the Issues Highlighted in the Article
- SDG 13: Climate Action
- SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
- SDG 15: Life on Land
Specific Targets Under Those SDGs Based on the Article’s Content
- SDG 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters
- SDG 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning
- SDG 11.5: Reduce the impact of natural disasters on cities and human settlements
- SDG 15.1: Ensure conservation, restoration, and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems
Indicators Mentioned or Implied in the Article to Measure Progress towards the Identified Targets
- Temperature increase (measured in degrees Fahrenheit or Celsius)
- Frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (heat waves, forest fires, flash floods)
- Global sea surface temperatures
- Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere
Table: SDGs, Targets, and Indicators
| SDGs | Targets | Indicators |
|---|---|---|
| SDG 13: Climate Action | 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters | Temperature increase, frequency and intensity of extreme weather events |
| SDG 13: Climate Action | 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning | Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere |
| 11.5: Reduce the impact of natural disasters on cities and human settlements | Frequency and intensity of extreme weather events | |
| SDG 15: Life on Land | 15.1: Ensure conservation, restoration, and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems | Global sea surface temperatures |
Behold! This splendid article springs forth from the wellspring of knowledge, shaped by a wondrous proprietary AI technology that delved into a vast ocean of data, illuminating the path towards the Sustainable Development Goals. Remember that all rights are reserved by SDG Investors LLC, empowering us to champion progress together.
Source: parkrecord.com
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