No one knows how to pay for Maryland’s massive education reform

The Blueprint for Maryland’s Future: A Report on Sustainable Development Goals

By Kiersten Hacker, Christina Walker, and Ela Jalil

Maryland’s Democratic-led legislature passed the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future in 2021, with the aim of investing billions of dollars into the state’s public schools to achieve universal pre-K, improve teaching quality, and ensure students are prepared for college or careers.

However, the General Assembly did not provide a long-term plan to fund this ambitious 10-year education reform effort, which is now facing significant financial challenges.

The Blueprint’s Impact on Maryland’s Finances

An in-depth investigation into the reform plan, titled “Behind the Blueprint,” conducted by the Local News Network at the University of Maryland, revealed that the Blueprint is already depleting hundreds of millions of dollars annually from the state’s fund balance. At this rate, the fund balance is projected to be fully drained by 2027.

Furthermore, a fiscal briefing released by the state Department of Legislative Services in January predicts that Maryland will start running a structural deficit in fiscal year 2025, which will increase nearly sixfold by fiscal year 2029, reaching $2.93 billion. Coincidentally, the fiscal briefing estimates that implementing the Blueprint will cost over $4 billion in 2029.

Despite these financial challenges, neither Governor Wes Moore nor any of the Democratic state legislators interviewed for this story have proposed potential solutions to address the impending cash crunch caused by the Blueprint.

On the other hand, Republicans view the Blueprint as a budget-breaking initiative. House Minority Leader Jason Buckel, a Republican from Allegany, stated that paying billions of dollars in additional funds is not feasible without significant tax increases.

The Background of the Blueprint

The Blueprint was ironically born out of a commission supported by Republican Governor Larry Hogan, who later withdrew his support due to concerns about its cost. In 2016, Hogan and the General Assembly established the Commission on Innovation and Excellence in Education to assess Maryland’s public education system and determine if current funding schemes were conducive to student success.

Headed by William Kirwan, the former chancellor of the University System of Maryland, the commission concluded that a comprehensive overhaul was necessary. However, Hogan vetoed the bill creating the Blueprint in May 2020, citing his reluctance to raise taxes during the COVID-19 pandemic to fund the education plan. The General Assembly overrode his veto in 2021.

During the following year, Democrat Wes Moore, a strong supporter of the Blueprint, was elected to succeed Hogan as governor. Moore expressed his belief in the reform plan and pledged to work with the General Assembly to ensure its proper and sustainable implementation.

The Blueprint’s Lofty Goals

The Blueprint’s ambitious goals are already taking shape in Maryland’s 24 public school districts. Each district has developed a preliminary plan to meet targets for universal pre-K, increased teacher salaries, and improved student performance. The Accountability and Implementation Board has approved these plans after requesting revisions.

The Blueprint aims to provide equal opportunities for all students in the state’s education system. To achieve its goals of maximizing reading and math skills and increasing pathways to college, a standardized approach is necessary. However, the details of funding allocation remain an ongoing conversation.

Cheryl Bost, president of the Maryland State Education Association, fully supports the Blueprint and believes that increased investment in public education is both necessary and long overdue. While acknowledging concerns about the cost, Bost emphasized the constitutional obligation to provide a public education for all students.

The Budget Dilemma

Moore’s latest fiscal year 2025 budget proposal fully funds the Blueprint, providing temporary relief for lawmakers who can now focus on other legislative issues. However, the long-term cost of implementing the Blueprint is projected to grow from $1.6 billion in fiscal year 2024 to $4.1 billion five years later. Simultaneously, the state’s structural budget gap is expected to increase each year until 2029, reaching $2.9 billion according to Legislative Services or approximately $3.5 billion according to the Moore administration.

Closing this budget gap will be extremely challenging, according to Christopher Summers, president and CEO of the conservative Maryland Policy Institute, who suggests pausing the Blueprint. Summers believes that raising taxes will not solve the problem. He also highlights the fiscal threat faced by county budgets due to the Blueprint’s requirement for increased education funding.

Lawmakers from both parties in Annapolis acknowledge the need for tough decisions in the coming years as the financial implications of the Blueprint become more apparent. Senate Minority Leader Stephen Hershey, a Republican from the Eastern Shore, suggests scaling back the Blueprint’s demands rather than paying for the current sweeping overhaul. Democrats, however, continue to support the Blueprint and believe that shared values between the legislature and the governor will lead to a solution for the budget dilemma.

State officials are looking to the Accountability and Implementation Board for recommendations on addressing the Blueprint’s budget challenges. The board has already proposed policy adjustments through legislative bills and is expected to release additional recommendations during this legislative session.

“What the AIB has tried to suggest is like, let’s try to implement it the way it’s intended. And if it doesn’t work, if it’s just no longer the right thing to do, then we need to change it,” said Rachel Hise, executive director of the board. “But for many things, we haven’t gotten to that point yet.”