Are Hurricanes the Icons of Climate Change They are Made Out to Be?

The Climate Report: The Impact of Climate Change on Hurricanes

Editor’s note: The Liberal Patriot and The Breakthrough Institute are pleased to present the inaugural piece in our new collaborative series “The Climate Report” looking at the science and reporting behind extreme weather events and other climate related matters. To receive the series directly in your inbox, please subscribe here.

Introduction

In recent weeks, the media has been attributing the occurrence of hurricanes to climate change. Headlines such as “Climate Change Brings Tropical Storm to California for First Time in 84 Years—Are We Ready?” and “Hurricane Idalia: How climate change is fueling hurricanes” have been prevalent. Bill Weir, speaking on CNN, emphasized the increasing cost of using fossil fuels and the surprising speed at which climate change is occurring. President Biden also acknowledged the impact of the climate crisis. This narrative aligns with the theme established since the release of “An Inconvenient Truth” in 2006, which depicted a hurricane emerging from a power plant smokestack.

The Relationship Between Climate Change and Hurricanes

While it is undeniable that warming will have some impact on all weather phenomena, the relationship between climate change and hurricanes is more complex. Various characteristics of hurricanes have been studied, including frequency, strength, duration, size, rain rate, location, rate of intensification, and forward movement. Different types of scientific evidence, such as historical trends, fundamental theory, and mathematical modeling, have led to conflicting conclusions about the impact of climate change on hurricanes.

Focusing on Historical Trends

To determine if hurricane seasons today differ significantly from the past, it is crucial to examine historical trends in hurricanes and their strength. The Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State maintains an up-to-date database of global hurricane statistics. Analysis of this data reveals no long-term trend in the number of hurricane days or major hurricane days globally. The North Atlantic Ocean, which affects the U.S. and Central America, has experienced an increase in hurricane activity since the 1970s. However, this uptick is attributed to a recovery from suppressed hurricane activity caused by human-caused aerosol emissions during the 1960s to 1980s.

Impacts of Climate Change on Hurricanes

While frequency and strength may not show clear trends, other characteristics of hurricanes, such as maximum rain rates and storm surges, are affected by climate change. Scientific evidence indicates that warming increases maximum rain rates in hurricanes by about 10 to 15 percent per degree Celsius. Additionally, sea level rise has caused storm surges to be higher than in the past. These factors contribute to increased rainfall totals and larger storm surges during hurricanes.

Conclusion

Overall, there is no definitive evidence of a significant increase in hurricane frequency or intensity due to climate change. However, it is clear that when hurricanes do occur, they can produce higher rainfall totals and larger storm surges compared to the past. It is important to recognize that the majority of the risk associated with hurricanes stems from living in a climate that naturally produces these storms. By solely attributing extreme weather events to climate change, we risk misinforming the public and undermining the credibility of climate science.

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators Analysis

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 13: Climate Action

The article discusses the connection between hurricanes and climate change, which falls under the scope of SDG 13, which aims to take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

• Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters
• Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning
• Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising, and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning

The article highlights the need to strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards such as hurricanes. It also emphasizes the importance of integrating climate change measures into policies and improving education and awareness on climate change.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• Indicator 13.1.1: Number of deaths, missing persons, and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population
• Indicator 13.2.1: Number of countries that have integrated mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning into primary, secondary, and tertiary curricula
• Indicator 13.3.1: Number of countries that have communicated the strengthening of institutional, systemic, and individual capacity-building to implement adaptation, mitigation, and technology transfer

The article mentions the impact of hurricanes on deaths, missing persons, and affected populations, which can be measured using Indicator 13.1.1. It also discusses the need for education and awareness on climate change, which can be measured using Indicator 13.2.1. Additionally, the article emphasizes the importance of strengthening institutional and individual capacity-building, which can be measured using Indicator 13.3.1.

Table: SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

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Source: thebreakthrough.org

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