The catastrophic flood in Libya is a symbol of the threat posed by the warming of the Mediterranean –

Libya Faces Catastrophic Floods Triggered by Storm Daniel

Libya extreme and catastrophic floods triggered by Storm Danie is one of the many examples of extreme climate-disaster characterizing 2023. The massive rainfall has caused deaths and destruction in the country urging national and international action immediately. The climatologist David Faranda warns that the growing warming of the Mediterranean Sea will affect all coastal counties. Bob Henson and Jeff Masters from Yale University link climate change to Mediterranean cyclones, emphasizing the risks posed by intensified rainfall and extreme weather events. In Africa, climate adaptation measures must be implemented to become more resilient. 

Introduction

Since the beginning of 2023, numerous and catastrophic environmental damages have inflamed the political debate. After the devastating earthquakes in Morocco, Libya is now facing an alarming  humanitarian crisis due to the following devastating floods triggered by storm Daniel, which struck the country’s eastern region. Storm Daniel, described as an extreme weather event due to the massive amount of rainfall, has already caused 27 deaths in Greece, Turkey, and Bulgaria before reaching Libya. It significantly impacted coastal towns like Jabal al-Akhdar and Benghazi, where a curfew was imposed and schools closed.

The Current Situation

This flood is already counting many deaths and missing people in multiple localities. At the current stage, the situation in Eastern Libya is catastrophic, therefore urging for national and international actions, since the water overflow destroyed and it is still perpetuating the destruction of entire areas including buildings, houses, infrastructure, etc.  The UN mission in Libya and world leaders, including the French President and US State Department spokesman, expressed solidarity while humanitarian organizations and NGOs are urging for immediate actions.

The Impact of Climate Change on Mediterranean Cyclones

According to the climatologist David Faranda, the ‘Daniel storm’ will be the nightmare of the countries along the Mediterranean coast: “Due to the ongoing CO2 emissions warming the atmosphere, the Mediterranean Sea will have more energy, more heat, and more moisture to create more intense cyclones. Therefore, the areas that are most exposed are also the ones that are most vulnerable from an infrastructure perspective. As we have seen, North African countries, but even some southern European countries, do not have the infrastructure designed to withstand these quantities of rainfall.”

From Yale University, Bob Henson and Jeff Masters delve into the complex relationship between climate change and the occurrence of Mediterranean cyclones, referred to as medicanes^[1] in the article. With the recent Libya’s flood disaster caused by storm Daniel, the authors underscore how meteorological factors represent an intensifying impact of climate change on extreme weather events. Moreover, they declare that human-induced climate change is, in fact, amplifying the likelihood of tropical cyclones and similar storms producing extreme rainfall.

The Role of Rising Sea Temperatures

This is due to the warming of the atmosphere, which allows these storms to draw more moisture from oceans into the atmosphere. As above-mentioned by  the climatologist David Faranda,  all the authors are concerned about the alarming warming of the Mediterranean sea. Over the past four decades, the Mediterranean Sea has experienced an average temperature increase of approximately 2 degrees Celsius (3.6°F). “This summer the daily average sea surface temperatures of the Mediterranean hit new records for July (topping 28 degrees Celsius or 82°F for the first time in any month) as well as for August”. These rising sea temperatures provide the energy necessary for the formation of more frequent and more intense medicanes.

Implications for Future Medicanes

To further support their analysis, Bob Henson and Jeff Masters link their conclusions with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report, which draws parallels between the future of medicanes and tropical cyclones. The IPCC predicts a decrease in the frequency of medicanes under warming conditions; however, it also anticipates that the strongest ones will become even more potent.

This is a worrisome trend as stronger storms typically result in more significant damage and increased rainfall. By following the IPCC’s predictions, the authors mention Dr. Liz Stephens, associate professor in climate risks and resilience at the University of Reading, which highlights the linkages between climate change and intensified rainfall associated with medicanes. This indicates a heightened risk of flooding, as seen in the Libyan disaster.

Climate Change and Mid-Latitude Atmospheric Blocking Patterns

In the second part, the article discusses the potential influence of climate change on mid-latitude atmospheric blocking patterns in summer. Such changes in atmospheric patterns can contribute to extreme weather events (like Storm Daniel) and unusual heat waves especially in the area of central Europe. Researchers suggest that this correlation can be due to the disproportionate warming in the Arctic compared to mid-latitude regions. Furthermore, the article goes beyond underscoring that climate change is mostly anthropogenic. 

Human Actions and Development Choices

Indeed, the authors highlight how climate change can be worsened by various aspects of human society, including ecosystems, housing patterns, and infrastructure. For example, in Libya, inadequate dam maintenance may have heightened the risk of flooding, highlighting how human actions and development choices can wors

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

1. SDGs Addressed or Connected to the Issues Highlighted in the Article

   • SDG 1: No Poverty
   • SDG 2: Zero Hunger
   • SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being
   • SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation
   • SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure
   • SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
   • SDG 13: Climate Action
   • SDG 15: Life on Land
   • SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

   The issues highlighted in the article, such as extreme climate-disasters, floods, destruction of infrastructure, and the need for immediate national and international action, are connected to various SDGs. These SDGs address poverty reduction (SDG 1), food security (SDG 2), health and well-being (SDG 3), access to clean water and sanitation (SDG 6), sustainable infrastructure (SDG 9), resilient cities and communities (SDG 11), climate action (SDG 13), conservation of land ecosystems (SDG 15), and global partnerships (SDG 17).

2. Specific Targets Under the SDGs Based on the Article’s Content

   • Target 1.5: By 2030, build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events and other economic, social, and environmental shocks and disasters (SDG 1)
   • Target 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding, and other disasters, and that progressively improve land and soil quality (SDG 2)
   • Target 3.9: By 2030, substantially reduce the number of deaths and illnesses from hazardous chemicals and air, water, and soil pollution and contamination (SDG 3)
   • Target 6.4: By 2030, substantially increase water-use efficiency across all sectors and ensure sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater to address water scarcity and substantially reduce the number of people suffering from water scarcity (SDG 6)
   • Target 9.1: Develop quality, reliable, sustainable, and resilient infrastructure, including regional and transborder infrastructure, to support economic development and human well-being, with a focus on affordable and equitable access for all (SDG 9)
   • Target 11.5: By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected and substantially decrease the direct economic losses relative to global gross domestic product caused by disasters, including water-related disasters, with a focus on protecting the poor and people in vulnerable situations (SDG 11)
   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries (SDG 13)
   • Target 15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration, and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services, in particular forests, wetlands, mountains, and drylands, in line with obligations under international agreements (SDG 15)
   • Target 17.16: Enhance the global partnership for sustainable development, complemented by multi-stakeholder partnerships that mobilize and share knowledge, expertise, technology, and financial resources, to support the achievement of the sustainable development goals in all countries, in particular developing countries (SDG 17)

   The article’s content implies the need to achieve specific targets under the relevant SDGs. These targets include building resilience to climate-related extreme events and disasters (Target 1.5), implementing resilient agricultural practices and adapting to climate change (Target 2.4), reducing deaths and illnesses from pollution and contamination (Target 3.9), increasing water-use efficiency and addressing water scarcity (Target 6.4), developing sustainable and resilient infrastructure (Target 9.1), reducing deaths and economic losses caused by disasters (Target 11.5), strengthening resilience to climate-related hazards (Target 13.1), conserving terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems (Target 15.1), and enhancing global partnerships for sustainable development (Target 17.16).

3. Indicators Mentioned or Implied in the Article to Measure Progress towards the Identified Targets

   • Number of deaths and missing people due to extreme weather events and disasters
   • Extent of destruction of buildings, houses, and infrastructure
   • Availability and access to clean water and sanitation facilities
   • Efficiency of water use across sectors
   • Investment in sustainable and resilient infrastructure
   • Number of people affected and economic losses caused by disasters
   • Resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters
   • Conservation and restoration of terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems
   • Level of international cooperation and partnerships for sustainable development

   The article mentions or implies several indicators that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets. These indicators include the number of deaths and missing people, extent of destruction, availability of clean water and sanitation facilities, water-use efficiency, investment in sustainable infrastructure, number of people affected and economic losses from disasters, resilience to climate-related hazards, conservation of ecosystems, and level of international cooperation and partnerships.

Table: SDGs, Targets, and Indicators