Human-induced climate change ‘worsened drought’ affecting Syria, Iraq and Iran

Sustainable Development Goals and the Impact of Human-Induced Climate Change on Drought in Syria, Iraq, and Iran

Human-induced climate change has worsened an “exceptional” three-year drought that has spanned areas of Syria, Iraq, and Iran, according to a recent study.

The Impact of Drought on the Region

Since 2020, a region encompassing the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, as well as Iran, has experienced unusually low rainfall and persistent heat, leading to a severe drought in an area heavily reliant on wheat farming.

By September 2022, the drought had displaced nearly two million people from rural areas in Syria.

Rana El Hajj, of the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, highlighted the dire consequences of the drought on the livelihoods and health of people living in Iran, Syria, and Iraq. She emphasized that farmers have witnessed fertile lands drying up and millions of people struggling to access clean water. Land degradation, desertification, water stress, and conflict have all contributed to increasing vulnerability to drought.

In Syria and Iraq, the impacts of conflict and security concerns have greatly reduced people’s ability to respond to the drought.

The Role of Human-Induced Climate Change

Scientists from Iran, the Netherlands, the UK, and the US, led by the World Weather Attribution Group, conducted a study to determine the extent to which human-induced climate change played a role in the drought. They found that high temperatures, driven by climate change, made the drought much more likely to happen – about 25 times more likely in Syria and Iraq, and 16 times more likely in Iran.

The heat accelerated the evaporation of water from soil and plants, making the drought much more severe. However, it did not appear to have an impact on rainfall.

The scientists concluded that the drought, classified as “extreme” on the US Drought Monitor scale and the second worst on record, was primarily driven by soaring temperatures. They emphasized that in a world 2°C warmer than pre-industrial levels, an event like this would be an exceptional drought, the worst category possible.

Implications for the Future

In the present climate, events of this severity are expected to occur at least every decade. However, the authors warn that unless the world stops burning fossil fuels, droughts like the one affecting the region will become even more common in the future.

Ben Clarke, a researcher at the Grantham Institute, Imperial College London’s climate change and environment hub, highlighted the role of prolonged heat, driven by climate change, in droughts around the world. He emphasized that even if climate change doesn’t significantly influence low levels of rainfall, higher temperatures are turning many droughts into extreme events.

October 2023: Warmest on Record

According to the EU’s climate monitor, October 2023 was recorded as the warmest October on record. This year is “near certain” to be the hottest on record.

Data released by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) showed an average surface air temperature across the planet of 15.3°C for the month. This is 0.4°C warmer than the previous global record for October set in 2019 and 1.7°C warmer than the pre-industrial average.

Recent research by Imperial College found that the window to limit global warming to 1.5°C is closing. The study analyzed the global carbon budget and concluded that if carbon emissions remain at 2022 levels, the carbon budget will be exhausted by about 2029, committing the world to warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

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SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

1. SDG 2: Zero Hunger

   • Target 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding, and other disasters, and that progressively improve land and soil quality.

2. SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation

   • Target 6.4: By 2030, substantially increase water-use efficiency across all sectors and ensure sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater to address water scarcity and substantially reduce the number of people suffering from water scarcity.

3. SDG 13: Climate Action

   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.
   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning.
   • Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising, and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning.
   • Target 13.b: Promote mechanisms for raising capacity for effective climate change-related planning and management in least developed countries and small island developing States, including focusing on women, youth, and local and marginalized communities.

Analysis

The issues highlighted in the article are connected to SDGs 2, 6, and 13.

1. SDG 2: Zero Hunger

The severe drought caused by climate change has affected wheat farming in the region, leading to food scarcity and potential hunger. Target 2.4 aims to ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices. The drought’s impact on agriculture aligns with this target.

2. SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation

The drought has also resulted in water scarcity, making it difficult for people to access clean water. Target 6.4 focuses on increasing water-use efficiency and ensuring sustainable freshwater supply. The article mentions the struggle to access clean water, indicating the relevance of this target.

3. SDG 13: Climate Action

The article highlights the role of human-induced climate change in worsening the drought. Several targets under SDG 13 are relevant:

• Target 13.1 emphasizes the need to strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters, which includes droughts.
• Target 13.2 calls for integrating climate change measures into national policies and planning, which is crucial for addressing the impacts of droughts.
• Target 13.3 focuses on improving education and awareness about climate change adaptation and mitigation, which can help communities respond to droughts effectively.
• Target 13.b highlights the importance of capacity-building for climate change planning and management, particularly in vulnerable regions like the one affected by the drought.

Table: SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

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Source: thenationalnews.com

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