Unlocking the Secrets of Climate Evolution: The Tipping Points That Changed Earth Forever

Over the past 66 million years, two major climate events have shaped the climate system, dividing the period into two distinct climate eras.

An analysis of the hierarchy of tipping points indicates that over the past 66 million years, two significant occurrences laid the foundation for subsequent climate tipping and, specifically, the evolution of the climate system. The authors propose that if the current anthropogenic climate change results in total deglaciation, it will impact the development of Earth’s climate on a geological timescale.

Inspired by a theory of evolution

The new insight into the history of climate change was inspired by the theory of punctuated equilibrium which ranks evolutionary changes into hierarchies.

A hierarchy of climate tipping events

The first event was the Chicxulub meteor impact in Mexico which killed off the large dinosaurs approximately 65.5 million years ago. This catastrophe marked the beginning of a very warm period with high levels of CO2. For the following 30 million years, this regime dictated which climatic changes were possible and kept it within the regime of hot and warm climates.

The second crucial event was the tipping point associated with the glaciation of the Southern hemisphere 34 million years ago when the Antarctic continent was isolated at the South Pole due to plate tectonics. The forming of the large ice sheet led to the glaciation of the North as well and marked the beginning of a considerably colder type of climate on Earth, again dictating the scope of future climate changes.

Serious repercussions

In the event that the ice sheets should not withstand anthropogenic global warming, the deglaciation will therefore represent a landmark tipping point similar to the two that have dominated Earth’s history leading to a new unknown climate landscape.

”The ice sheets are key components in the present climate system. But they are very sensitive. They presently experience a negative mass balance, and there are numerous reports of evidence of melting under the impact of the current climate warming, translating a trend towards a potential tipping point that could accelerate the disappearance at least of Greenland and West Antarctica, with serious repercussions for our societies” says Denis-Didier Rousseau.

“Crossing tipping points has been a recurrent feature in climate evolution. Our study reveals a better understanding of the mathematics of such events. As a consequence, strategies of adaptation to and mitigation of climate change should now take into account the possible destabilization of tipping elements,” adds Valerio Lucarini.

Reference

Reference: “A punctuated equilibrium analysis of the climate evolution of cenozoic exhibits a hierarchy of abrupt transitions” by Denis-Didier Rousseau, Witold Bagniewski and Valerio Lucarini, 12 July 2023, Scientific Reports.
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-38454-6

The TiPES project

The TiPES project is an EU Horizon 2020 interdisciplinary climate science project on tipping points in the Earth system. 18 partner institutions work together in more than 10 countries. TiPES is coordinated and led by The Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen, Denmark, and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany. The TiPES project has received funding from the European Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, grant agreement number 820970.

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

1. SDGs Addressed or Connected to the Issues

   • SDG 13: Climate Action

   The article discusses the impact of climate change on Earth’s climate system and the potential tipping points that could occur. This aligns with SDG 13, which aims to take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.

2. Specific Targets

   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters
   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning
   • Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising, and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning
   • Target 13.a: Implement the commitment undertaken by developed-country parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to a goal of mobilizing jointly $100 billion annually by 2020 from all sources to address the needs of developing countries in the context of meaningful mitigation actions and transparency on implementation and fully operationalize the Green Climate Fund through its capitalization as soon as possible
   • Target 13.b: Promote mechanisms for raising capacity for effective climate change-related planning and management in least developed countries and small island developing States, including focusing on women, youth, and local and marginalized communities

   These targets are relevant to the issues discussed in the article as they focus on building resilience to climate-related hazards, integrating climate change measures into policies and planning, improving education and awareness, and mobilizing financial resources for climate action.

3. Indicators

   • Indicator 13.1.1: Number of deaths, missing persons, and directly affected persons attributed to disasters per 100,000 population
   • Indicator 13.2.1: Number of countries that have integrated mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning into primary, secondary, and tertiary curricula
   • Indicator 13.3.1: Number of countries that have communicated the strengthening of institutional, systemic, and individual capacity-building to implement adaptation, mitigation, and technology transfer, and development actions
   • Indicator 13.a.1: Mobilized amount of United States dollars per year between 2020 and 2025 accountable towards the $100 billion commitment
   • Indicator 13.b.1: Number of least developed countries and small island developing States that are receiving specialized support, and amount of support, including finance, technology, and capacity-building, for mechanisms for raising capacities for effective climate change-related planning and management

   These indicators can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets. They focus on measuring the impact of disasters, integration of climate change measures in education, communication of capacity-building efforts, mobilization of financial resources, and support provided to least developed countries and small island developing States.

Table: SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

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Source: scitechdaily.com

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