Iran’s Poverty Line Exposed as Deception, Leaving Millions Below Survival – National Council of Resistance of Iran – NCRI

Report on Economic Hardship and Sustainable Development Goal Failures in Iran

Introduction: Poverty Metrics vs. National Reality

This report analyzes the state of poverty in Iran, focusing on the discrepancy between official government statistics and the lived reality of its citizens. The findings indicate a significant regression on key United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those concerning poverty, hunger, decent work, and inequality. In late October 2025, the Iranian government announced an official poverty line of 6,128,739 tomans per person per month. However, independent analysis and economic data suggest this figure deliberately understates the severity of a systemic crisis, masking failures to progress towards the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Analysis of SDG 1: No Poverty

Official vs. Realistic Poverty Thresholds

The government’s declared poverty line is insufficient to meet basic needs, directly contravening the core objective of SDG 1. The gap between official figures and the actual cost of living is stark:

• Official Poverty Line (per person): 6.1 million tomans/month.
• Estimated Survival Line (family of 3.3): Approximately 20 million tomans/month.
• Estimated Livelihood Cost (working family): Approximately 50 million tomans/month.
• Official Minimum Wage: Approximately 10 million tomans/month, covering less than half the basic survival cost.

Poverty Rate and Demographics

Iran’s progress towards eradicating poverty has reversed. The national poverty rate has reached 36%, the highest in over a decade, meaning nearly 30 million people are unable to afford basic necessities. Other estimates place the figure as high as 50% of the population (over 40 million people). This crisis disproportionately affects vulnerable groups, with poverty rates in rural and marginalized urban areas reaching between 40% and 50%, further undermining the SDG principle of “leaving no one behind.”

Setbacks in Core Socio-Economic SDGs

SDG 2: Zero Hunger

Food security and nutrition have deteriorated, indicating a failure to achieve SDG 2. Chronic inflation, which stood at 37.1% with food inflation soaring to 57.9% by late summer 2025, has severely impacted household access to food.

1. Caloric Intake Decline: By 2022, over half of Iranians consumed fewer than the recommended 2,100 calories per day, a figure that has likely worsened.
2. Soaring Food Prices: The cost of staple goods has risen dramatically, with beans increasing by 250%, chicken by over 50%, and domestic rice tripling in price.
3. Nutritional Deficiencies: Many families can no longer afford essential proteins like meat or even legumes, increasing the risk of malnutrition and long-term health crises, which also impacts SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being).

SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

The Iranian labor market reflects a deep crisis, failing to provide decent work or sustainable economic growth as outlined in SDG 8.

• Widespread Unemployment: 41 million working-age individuals are without jobs or are economically inactive, with less than 38% of the working-age population employed.
• Youth and Gender Disparities: Youth unemployment stands at 19%, and women’s joblessness exceeds 15%, highlighting a failure to ensure inclusive employment and progress on SDG 5 (Gender Equality).
• Prevalence of “Working Poor”: Stagnant wages combined with chronic inflation above 45% have eroded real incomes, trapping even employed individuals in poverty.

SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

Economic policies have exacerbated inequality, leading to the collapse of the middle class and contradicting the aims of SDG 10. Between 2017 and 2024, the economic buffer for middle-income families shrank by 22%, pushing millions toward destitution. While the Gini coefficient may show a slight statistical improvement, this is attributed to a general impoverishment of the population rather than a genuine reduction in wealth disparity.

Institutional Failures and SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

Governance and Resource Mismanagement

The root causes of the crisis are linked to systemic governance failures, undermining SDG 16, which calls for effective, accountable, and transparent institutions. Decades of economic mismanagement, systemic corruption, and the diversion of national wealth toward security apparatuses and foreign proxies have crippled domestic production and fueled chronic budget deficits.

Manipulation of Statistics

The official declaration of a poverty line that is widely regarded as a “line of death” represents a failure of institutional transparency. Critics, including labor leaders, have accused the government of manipulating measurement tools to conceal the true scale of the social catastrophe. This lack of accountability prevents the formulation of effective policies to address poverty and achieve the SDGs.

Conclusion

The economic situation in Iran reflects a profound failure to meet fundamental Sustainable Development Goals. The officially declared poverty line serves not as a tool for economic planning but as an instrument of political denial. Widespread poverty, hunger, unemployment, and inequality are not merely economic indicators but evidence of a systemic crisis rooted in governance failures. The conditions represent a severe regression from the 2030 Agenda, sacrificing the welfare of an entire nation and turning poverty into a structural and social catastrophe.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

1. SDG 1: No Poverty

   • The article’s central theme is the widespread and deepening poverty in Iran. It extensively discusses the official poverty line, the actual cost of survival, and the increasing percentage of the population falling below this line. It explicitly states that “nearly 30 million Iranians can no longer afford their basic needs” and that the poverty rate has reached “36 percent — the highest in over a decade.”

2. SDG 2: Zero Hunger

   • The article directly links poverty to hunger and malnutrition. It highlights that “over half of Iranians consumed fewer than 2,100 calories per day” and that soaring food inflation has made staple goods unaffordable. The text notes that families who gave up red meat “can no longer afford poultry or legumes, increasing the risk of malnutrition and long-term health crises.”

3. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

   • The article addresses the lack of decent work and productive employment. It points to high unemployment, with “41 million people of working age are without jobs,” and specifically mentions high rates for youth (19%) and women (over 15%). It also describes the phenomenon of the “working poor,” where even those with jobs cannot earn a living wage, as the official minimum wage is “less than half the basic requirement” for survival.

4. SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

   • The article discusses the severe economic inequality and the erosion of the middle class. It notes that “the distance between middle-income families and the poverty threshold shrank by 22 percent,” pushing many into precarity. It also mentions the Gini coefficient, a measure of inequality, explaining that its supposed improvement “merely reflects the fact that everyone has become poorer.” The article also points to the vulnerability of specific groups like “workers, pensioners, children, and elderly women.”

5. SDG 5: Gender Equality

   • The article touches upon gender inequality in the economic sphere by specifically highlighting that “women’s joblessness exceeds 15 percent.” This points to unequal economic opportunities for women, which is a key aspect of SDG 5.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. SDG 1: No Poverty

   • Target 1.1: By 2030, eradicate extreme poverty for all people everywhere. The article directly relates to this by identifying a segment of the population in extreme poverty, stating that “about 6 percent, or 5 million, trapped in extreme poverty, unable to afford even food.”
   • Target 1.2: By 2030, reduce at least by half the proportion of men, women and children of all ages living in poverty in all its dimensions according to national definitions. The article shows a negative trend away from this target, with the national poverty rate increasing to 36%, the “highest in over a decade,” and various sources estimating it could be as high as 50%.

2. SDG 2: Zero Hunger

   • Target 2.1: By 2030, end hunger and ensure access by all people, in particular the poor and people in vulnerable situations… to safe, nutritious and sufficient food all year round. The article demonstrates a failure to meet this target by describing how “over half of Iranians consumed fewer than 2,100 calories per day” and how exploding prices for staples like beans, chicken, and rice put basic nutrition out of reach for millions.

3. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

   • Target 8.5: By 2030, achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all women and men… and equal pay for work of equal value. The article highlights the gap in achieving this target by citing that “less than 38 percent of the working-age population holds employment” and that the minimum wage is insufficient for survival, creating a nation of “working poor.”
   • Target 8.6: By 2020, substantially reduce the proportion of youth not in employment, education or training. The article shows this target is not being met, with “Youth unemployment stands at 19 percent.”

4. SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

   • Target 10.2: By 2030, empower and promote the social, economic and political inclusion of all, irrespective of age, sex… or other status. The article points to the economic exclusion of vulnerable groups, noting that “workers, pensioners, children, and elderly women — who are being crushed by inflation.”
   • Target 10.4: Adopt policies, especially fiscal, wage and social protection policies, and progressively achieve greater equality. The article critiques the existing policies, such as a minimum wage that is “less than half the basic requirement” and “failed welfare programs,” indicating that current policies are exacerbating rather than reducing inequality.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

1. For SDG 1 (No Poverty)

   • Indicator 1.2.1 (Proportion of population living below the national poverty line): The article provides multiple data points for this indicator, citing figures of 30%, 36%, 40%, and “half the population—over 40 million people.”
   • Indicator 1.1.1 (Proportion of population living below the international poverty line): This is implied by the mention of “extreme poverty,” for which the article gives a specific figure: “6 percent, or 5 million.”

2. For SDG 2 (Zero Hunger)

   • Indicator 2.1.1 (Prevalence of undernourishment): The article provides a direct proxy for this indicator by stating that “over half of Iranians consumed fewer than 2,100 calories per day.”
   • Indicator 2.1.2 (Prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity): This is strongly implied by the data on food inflation (“beans up 250 percent, chicken over 50 percent”) and the statement that many families “can no longer afford poultry or legumes.”

3. For SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth)

   • Indicator 8.5.2 (Unemployment rate, by sex and age): The article gives precise figures for this indicator: “Youth unemployment stands at 19 percent, women’s joblessness exceeds 15 percent.”
   • Indicator 8.2.1 (Annual growth rate of real GDP per employed person): While not giving the exact rate per person, the article mentions low economic growth (“a meager 3.1 percent”) and stagnating wages amid high inflation, implying a negative growth in real income for workers.

4. For SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities)

   • Indicator 10.2.1 (Proportion of people living below 50 per cent of median income): The collapse of the middle class and the fact that the minimum wage is less than half the survival income strongly implies a large and growing proportion of the population falls under this indicator.
   • Gini Coefficient (Indicator 10.2.1 is often analyzed alongside this): The article explicitly mentions the “Gini coefficient” as a measure of inequality being discussed within the country.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: ncr-iran.org