Report on the Destabilization of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and its Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary

An analysis of events at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) during the first six months of the second Trump administration reveals significant setbacks to the United States’ progress toward key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Actions initiated by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), influenced by “Project 2025,” led to severe understaffing, underfunding, and a degradation of mission-critical capabilities. This report details how these actions have directly undermined SDG 13 (Climate Action), SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being), and SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions).

Erosion of Institutional Capacity and Impact on SDG 16

The administration’s approach to reforming NOAA has resulted in significant institutional instability, directly contravening the objectives of SDG 16, which calls for effective, accountable, and inclusive institutions. The sequence of events demonstrates a weakening of a critical federal agency:

1. In early February, the DOGE team initiated plans to cut NOAA’s personnel by 50% and its budget by 30%.
2. By the end of February, approximately 880 employees, including key scientists, received termination notices. This was compounded by over 1,000 employees opting for early retirement or buyouts due to the instability.
3. The agency’s workforce was projected to shrink by 20% due to a combination of layoffs and resignations.
4. Conflicting announcements regarding reinstatements and further terminations created widespread uncertainty, eroding morale and institutional knowledge.
5. The removal of references to climate change from the agency’s website and the dismantling of DEI programs reflect an ideologically driven approach that compromises the institution’s scientific integrity and inclusivity.

This process has weakened agency performance and eroded its talent pool, forcing NOAA to expend valuable resources rebuilding processes it had dismantled, rather than strengthening its core functions.

Compromised Climate Action and Community Resilience (SDG 13 & SDG 11)

The operational capacity of NOAA is fundamental to achieving SDG 13 (Climate Action) and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), particularly Target 11.5, which aims to reduce deaths and economic losses from disasters. The staff and budget cuts directly impaired NOAA’s ability to monitor and forecast severe weather, a critical component of climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction.

The consequences of this diminished capacity were tragically illustrated by the Texas floods, which resulted in at least 135 fatalities. This event highlighted the direct link between the agency’s operational integrity and public safety. The degradation of the national weather monitoring system, essential for early warnings, represents a failure to protect communities and build resilience against climate-related hazards.

Disruption of Critical Weather Monitoring Services

The reduction in personnel led to repeated disruptions in the national weather data collection system, most notably the weather balloon launch program, which is vital for forecasting hurricanes, floods, and other severe weather events. These disruptions directly threaten public health and safety, undermining SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being).

• Weather balloon launches were suspended in Albany, New York; Gray, Maine; Kotzebue, Alaska; Omaha, Nebraska; and Rapid City, South Dakota.
• Launch frequency was reduced from twice to once daily in Aberdeen, South Dakota; Grand Junction, Colorado; Green Bay, Wisconsin; Gaylord, Michigan; North Platte, Nebraska; and Riverton, Wyoming.
• Layoffs impacted the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii.
• Nearly half of all weather offices reported staffing shortages of 20%.
• Some weather service departments eliminated overnight forecaster shifts.

Conclusion: Reversal and Long-Term Implications for Sustainable Development

Following the catastrophic Texas floods, a policy reversal was initiated, with nominee Neil Jacobs announcing plans to rehire staff and the White House authorizing the filling of 126 vacant positions. However, this reactive measure cannot immediately undo the damage. The loss of experienced personnel and the time required to train new specialists mean that NOAA’s forecasting capabilities will remain significantly reduced in the interim, leaving the nation vulnerable.

The case of NOAA serves as a cautionary example of how ideologically driven, across-the-board cuts to scientific institutions can severely impede a nation’s ability to meet its Sustainable Development Goals. Weakening the institutions responsible for climate monitoring, disaster warning, and public safety leads to increased human and economic losses, directly contradicting the principles of sustainable and resilient development.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

1. SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
   • The article directly connects the weakening of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to a deadly natural disaster. The flooding in Texas, which “killed at least 135 people,” highlights the critical importance of effective weather monitoring and warning systems for the safety and resilience of human settlements. A failure in this system, as described in the article, directly impacts the sustainability and safety of communities.
2. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • The article discusses NOAA’s role in monitoring weather and issuing warnings for severe events like hurricanes and floods, which are climate-related hazards. The ideological opposition to NOAA, described as viewing it as an institution “aligned with climate advocacy,” and the specific action of removing “references to climate change from NOAA’s website” directly link the agency’s struggles to the broader theme of climate action. The degradation of its early warning capabilities undermines the ability to adapt to climate-related disasters.
3. SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions
   • The central theme of the article is the dismantling and weakening of a critical government institution. The narrative of NOAA being “understaffed, underfunded, and experiencing leadership challenges” due to politically motivated cuts and restructuring is a clear example of institutional decay. The article serves as a “cautionary tale of how not to reform government,” directly addressing the need for effective, accountable, and resilient institutions.
4. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure
   • The article details the disruption of essential scientific infrastructure required for weather forecasting. The suspension and reduction of weather balloon launches across numerous states (“Albany, New York,” “Kotzebue, Alaska,” “Omaha, Nebraska,” etc.) and layoffs at the “Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii” represent a degradation of reliable and resilient infrastructure necessary for public safety and well-being.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. Target 11.5: By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected… caused by disasters, including water-related disasters.
   • The article’s mention of the Texas floods that “killed at least 135 people” directly relates to this target. The weakening of NOAA’s forecasting ability increases the risk of such fatalities, demonstrating a move away from, rather than towards, achieving this target.
2. Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.
   • The entire article illustrates a reduction in resilience and adaptive capacity. By cutting staff and infrastructure, NOAA’s ability to “predict hurricanes, floods, snowstorms, and other serious events” is compromised, making the nation more vulnerable to climate-related hazards.
3. Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction and early warning.
   • The actions described, such as removing “references to climate change from NOAA’s website” and the loss of “many leading scientists and forecasters,” directly undermine institutional capacity and awareness-raising on climate change and its impacts.
4. Target 16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions at all levels.
   • The story of NOAA under the DOGE team is a case study in the opposite of this target. The agency was made less effective through “across-the-board cuts,” a lack of “a clear strategy for continuing critical missions,” and a chaotic series of conflicting announcements about layoffs and rehirings, which eroded the talent pool and weakened agency performance.
5. Target 9.1: Develop quality, reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructure… to support… human well-being.
   • The article provides a list of disruptions to the national weather monitoring infrastructure, including the suspension of weather balloon launches at multiple stations and layoffs at the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center. This directly impacts the reliability and resilience of an infrastructure system critical for human well-being.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

1. Indicators for Target 11.5:
   • Number of deaths attributed to disasters: The article explicitly states that the “flooding in Texas killed at least 135 people.” This is a direct quantitative indicator of the human cost of disasters when early warning systems are compromised.
2. Indicators for Targets 13.1, 13.3, and 9.1:
   • Status of early warning infrastructure: The article provides a detailed list of disruptions that can be used as negative indicators, such as “Weather balloon launches were suspended in Albany, New York, and Gray, Maine,” “ended in Kotzebue, Alaska,” and “cut from twice daily to once daily” in six other locations.
   • Staffing levels in critical institutions: The article provides multiple metrics for the loss of institutional capacity, including:
     • The loss of “about 20% of its workforce” through layoffs and resignations.
     • “Nearly half of all weather offices are currently missing 20% of their staff.”
     • A specific number of “126 vacant positions in depleted forecast offices.”
3. Indicators for Target 16.6:
   • Personnel and budget stability: The article implies indicators of institutional instability and ineffectiveness, such as:
     • Planned cuts of “50% of the personnel and 30% of the budget.”
     • The number of termination notices sent (“roughly 880 employees”).
     • The number of employees seeking early retirement or buyouts (“more than 1,000 such requests”).
     • Conflicting announcements regarding reinstating 791 employees while also identifying “an additional 1,029 positions for potential termination.”

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: brookings.edu