Iran’s Capital, Tehran, Faces Zero Day without Water: Climate Change and Bad Policy – Informed Comment

Report on Iran’s Water Crisis and its Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary

Iran is confronting a severe water crisis, characterized by one of the worst droughts in decades, leading to the depletion of key reservoirs and placing the capital, Tehran, on the verge of “Day Zero.” This situation represents a critical challenge to the nation’s ability to meet several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation) and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities). Decades of unsustainable water management, coupled with climate change impacts, have led to a state of “water bankruptcy,” where demand consistently outstrips renewable supply. The government’s proposal to relocate the capital highlights the severity of the crisis but fails to address the systemic issues. This report analyzes the root causes of the crisis and proposes solutions aligned with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Analysis of Water Bankruptcy in Iran

Historical Mismanagement and Policy Failures

The current water crisis is the result of long-term policy decisions that have disregarded environmental limits and the principles of sustainable resource management. These failures have directly undermined progress toward key SDGs.

• Unsustainable Agricultural Practices: Driven by a policy of food self-sufficiency, Iran has heavily relied on water-intensive irrigation. This approach, while aiming to address SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), has led to the over-extraction of groundwater and aquifer depletion, creating a conflict with SDG 6 and threatening long-term food security.
• Aggressive Hydraulic Infrastructure: Since 1979, the construction of numerous dams and river diversions to support urban and agricultural expansion has severely damaged natural ecosystems. This has resulted in drying lakes and rising water salinity, directly impacting SDG 15 (Life on Land).
• Ineffective Governance: A centralized, top-down water governance model has failed to balance supply and demand, exacerbating the gap and preventing the implementation of sustainable water management practices as outlined in SDG 6.5 (Integrated Water Resources Management).

Climate Change and Urbanization Pressures

The challenges of mismanagement are compounded by climate change and rapid urbanization, further straining the nation’s water systems and hindering the achievement of SDG 11 and SDG 13 (Climate Action).

1. Climate Vulnerability: Four of the water years since 2020 have seen below-normal precipitation. The fall of 2025 was the hottest and driest on record for Tehran, demonstrating the nation’s increasing vulnerability to extreme weather events linked to climate change. Shrinking snowpack and rising temperatures reduce predictable water flows and increase demand.
2. Urban Overstretch: The concentration of economic activity in Tehran has fueled massive migration, placing immense pressure on already overstretched water resources. This unbridled expansion has created a host of environmental problems, making the city less resilient and sustainable, in direct opposition to the goals of SDG 11.
3. Ineffective Mitigation Strategies: Proposed short-term fixes, such as interbasin water transfers, have historically fueled unsustainable growth rather than promoting conservation. The proposal to relocate the capital is a reactive measure that fails to address the core imbalance between supply and demand affecting cities nationwide.

Strategic Recommendations for Achieving Water Security and Sustainable Development

Policy Reforms for Sustainable Resource Management

To reverse the trend of water bankruptcy, Iran must adopt a holistic strategy that integrates economic, agricultural, and environmental policies in line with the SDGs.

• Decouple Economic Growth from Water Consumption: Invest in economic sectors that generate value with minimal water use, fostering progress toward SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) without depleting natural resources.
• Promote Sustainable Agriculture: Transition to higher-value, less water-intensive crops. This supports SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production). Furthermore, engaging in global trade to import water-intensive staple crops can reduce domestic water stress, aligning with SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).
• Enhance Urban Water Efficiency: Implement measures to reduce urban water demand, which is critical for achieving SDG 11. This includes:
  • Strengthening public education on conservation.
  • Restricting high-consumption water uses.
  • Upgrading distribution infrastructure to minimize leaks.

Technical and Nature-Based Solutions

Implementing modern technical and environmental solutions is essential for augmenting water supplies and improving water quality, directly supporting targets within SDG 6.

1. Wastewater Treatment and Reuse: Expand the recycling of treated wastewater for potable and non-potable uses, including maintaining environmental flows in rivers. This is a core component of SDG 6.3.
2. Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR): Utilize flood management techniques to recharge depleted aquifers, enhancing water storage and resilience against drought, which contributes to SDG 11.5 (reducing the impact of water-related disasters).
3. Groundwater Desalination: Explore inland groundwater desalination where feasible to supplement supplies while minimizing environmental harm, providing a new source of clean water as per SDG 6.1.

Conclusion

Iran’s water crisis is a national security threat rooted in systemic mismanagement and exacerbated by climate change. The proposal to relocate the capital is a symptom of the problem, not a solution. A sustainable path forward requires bold, coordinated action that addresses the root causes of water bankruptcy. By aligning its national policies with the Sustainable Development Goals—particularly SDG 6, SDG 11, SDG 13, and SDG 15—Iran can transition from a state of crisis to one of long-term water security and environmental resilience.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article on Iran’s water crisis touches upon several interconnected Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The analysis identifies the following SDGs as being directly relevant to the challenges and potential solutions discussed:

• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation: This is the most central SDG, as the entire article revolves around water scarcity, drought, mismanagement of water resources, groundwater depletion, and the impending “Day Zero” in Tehran.
• SDG 2: Zero Hunger: The article connects the water crisis to agricultural practices, mentioning Iran’s focus on “food self-sufficiency” through “water-intensive irrigation,” which has exacerbated water shortages. It suggests solutions related to sustainable agriculture.
• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities: The focus on Tehran, a megacity of 15 million people, highlights urban sustainability challenges. Issues like “unbridled expansion,” chronic water stress in a major urban center, and the drastic proposal to move the capital are directly related to this goal.
• SDG 13: Climate Action: The article explicitly links the worsening water crisis to climate change impacts, such as the “hottest and driest fall on record,” “shrinking snowpack,” and “rising temperatures,” emphasizing the need for climate adaptation and resilience.
• SDG 15: Life on Land: The environmental consequences of the water crisis, including “drying lakes,” “groundwater depletion,” and “land subsidence,” are discussed, which directly relate to the protection and restoration of terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems.
• SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth: The article suggests a fundamental economic shift to address the crisis, proposing to “decouple its economy from water consumption” by investing in sectors with minimal water use, which relates to sustainable economic growth.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the issues and solutions presented in the article, several specific SDG targets can be identified:

1. Under SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation):
   • Target 6.3: Improve water quality and increase recycling. The article suggests that “Treated wastewater could be further recycled for both drinking and nonpotable purposes.”
   • Target 6.4: Increase water-use efficiency and address water scarcity. The core theme of “water bankruptcy” where “water demand permanently exceeds the supply” directly addresses this target. The article also mentions reducing “agricultural water consumption” and upgrading “distribution infrastructure to minimize leaks.”
   • Target 6.5: Implement integrated water resources management. The article criticizes Iran’s “centralized, top-down approach to water governance” as ineffective and discusses the negative consequences of uncoordinated “interbasin water transfers.”
   • Target 6.6: Protect and restore water-related ecosystems. The mention of “Drying lakes” and “groundwater depletion” points to the failure to protect these ecosystems.
2. Under SDG 2 (Zero Hunger):
   • Target 2.4: Ensure sustainable food production systems. The article critiques Iran’s pursuit of “food self-sufficiency” through “aggressive hydraulic mission” and “water-intensive irrigation,” which are unsustainable. It proposes a shift to “less water-intensive crops.”
3. Under SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities):
   • Target 11.3: Enhance sustainable urbanization. Tehran’s “unbridled expansion” and resulting problems like “chronic water stress” and “severe air pollution” highlight the challenges related to this target.
   • Target 11.5: Reduce the impact of disasters. The severe drought is presented as a water-related disaster threatening millions in Tehran, with the city facing an impending “Day Zero.”
   • Target 11.b: Implement integrated policies for resource efficiency and climate resilience. The crisis in Tehran demonstrates a lack of integrated planning for resource management and disaster resilience, prompting extreme suggestions like relocating the capital.
4. Under SDG 13 (Climate Action):
   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards. The article states that the lack of foresight leaves the country “increasingly vulnerable to extreme climate conditions,” such as the record drought, rising temperatures, and shrinking snowpack.
5. Under SDG 15 (Life on Land):
   • Target 15.1: Conserve and restore freshwater ecosystems. The consequences of water mismanagement, such as “Drying lakes,” directly relate to the degradation of inland freshwater ecosystems.
   • Target 15.3: Combat desertification and restore degraded land. The article describes a nation facing one of its “worst droughts in decades,” a key driver of desertification and land degradation.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

The article provides several qualitative and quantitative points that can serve as indicators to measure the severity of the problems and, conversely, progress towards the SDG targets.

• For Target 6.4 (Level of water stress):
  • The concept of “water bankruptcy” is a critical qualitative indicator, defined as the point where “water demand permanently exceeds the supply.”
  • The “sharp decline in reservoir levels” and the fact that “several key reservoirs are nearly dry” are measurable indicators.
  • The impending “Day Zero” for Tehran is a stark indicator of extreme water stress.
• For Target 6.6 (Change in the extent of water-related ecosystems):
  • The explicit mention of “Drying lakes” and “groundwater depletion” serve as direct indicators of ecosystem degradation. The rate of groundwater level decline or the surface area of drying lakes could be measured.
• For Target 11.3 (Sustainable urbanization):
  • The population of the Tehran metro area (“15 million people”) serves as an indicator of the scale of urban concentration and the associated pressures on resources.
• For Target 13.1 (Resilience to climate-related hazards):
  • Climatic data points like the “hottest and driest fall on record for Tehran” and observations of “Shrinking snowpack and shifting rainfall patterns” are indicators of increasing climate-related hazards that the country is not resilient to.
• For Target 2.4 (Sustainable agriculture):
  • The reliance on “water-intensive irrigation” is an indicator of unsustainable practices. A measurable indicator of progress would be the percentage of agricultural land shifting to “less water-intensive crops.”

4. SDGs, Targets, and Indicators Table

Source: juancole.com