Could climate change create a new dust bowl? – UC Santa Cruz – News

Global Drought Study Reveals Severe Threats to Ecosystems and Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary

A global study published in Science, with contributions from UC Santa Cruz researchers, reports on the severe impacts of long-term, extreme drought on the world’s grassland and shrubland ecosystems. The findings indicate that prolonged drought more than doubles the loss of plant productivity compared to moderate droughts, critically undermining the resilience of these ecosystems. This research has profound implications for several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those related to climate action, terrestrial life, food security, and clean water.

Key Findings and Ecosystem Impacts

The research, conducted by the International Drought Experiment, highlights a critical decline in ecosystem function under simulated extreme drought conditions.

• Productivity Loss: After four years of experimentally induced extreme drought, losses in plant productivity were more than twice as high as those from moderate droughts.
• Loss of Resilience: Grassland and shrubland ecosystems, which cover approximately 50% of the Earth’s land surface, lose their ability to recover over time when subjected to prolonged dry conditions.
• Vulnerable Ecosystems: Annual grasslands, including three research sites monitored by UC Santa Cruz, demonstrated particularly high sensitivity to drought over time compared to perennial grasslands and shrublands.

Implications for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

The study’s results present a direct challenge to the achievement of multiple SDGs. The degradation of these vital ecosystems threatens global progress on environmental stability, human well-being, and economic prosperity.

1. SDG 13 (Climate Action) & SDG 15 (Life on Land): The research provides stark evidence of the consequences of climate change, which is projected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts. The resulting loss in plant productivity disrupts carbon sequestration, accelerates soil erosion, and can lead to desertification, directly contravening the targets of SDG 15 to halt and reverse land degradation.
2. SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) & SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation): The decline of grasslands and shrublands directly impacts agricultural productivity and grazing lands, threatening global food security. Furthermore, prolonged drought conditions exacerbate water scarcity, jeopardizing access to safe drinking water for communities worldwide, a core objective of SDG 6.
3. SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities): The potential for widespread soil erosion and dust storms, reminiscent of the 1930s Dust Bowl but on a global scale, poses a significant risk to human settlements. These environmental hazards, along with an increased risk of wildland fires, threaten the safety and resilience of communities.

Methodology: A Model for Global Collaboration (SDG 17)

The findings were generated through a large-scale, collaborative research initiative that serves as a model for addressing global challenges, directly aligning with SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).

• Project: The International Drought Experiment, a coordinated effort involving 170 researchers across six continents.
• Technique: Researchers utilized rainfall manipulation structures to simulate 1-in-100-year extreme drought conditions over a multi-year period.
• Contribution: UC Santa Cruz established and monitored three of only eight annual grassland sites in the entire global dataset, providing crucial data for the overall analysis.

Education and Capacity Building (SDG 4)

The project underscores the role of academic institutions in advancing sustainability research and education, a key component of SDG 4 (Quality Education).

• Living Laboratories: University lands, such as those at UC Santa Cruz, function as critical infrastructure for repeatable, long-term experiments.
• Student Training: These research sites provide accessible, hands-on training for undergraduate and graduate students in ecosystem monitoring and analysis, helping to develop the next generation of environmental leaders.

Analysis of the Article in Relation to Sustainable Development Goals

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 2: Zero Hunger – The article connects drought to impacts on agricultural productivity, which is fundamental to food security.
• SDG 4: Quality Education – The research project is highlighted as a “living laboratory” and a “hands-on training lab” for students, contributing to the education of future environmental leaders.
• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation – The text explicitly states that drought directly impacts the provision of safe drinking water, a key concern of this goal.
• SDG 13: Climate Action – The entire study is framed within the context of climate change, which increases the frequency and severity of droughts. The research aims to understand and quantify the impacts of these climate-related hazards.
• SDG 15: Life on Land – This is the most central SDG, as the article focuses on the degradation of terrestrial ecosystems (grasslands and shrublands) due to drought, leading to loss of plant productivity, potential soil erosion, and disruption of carbon sequestration.
• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals – The study is described as a large, collaborative “International Drought Experiment,” involving a “global group of 170 contributing researchers,” which exemplifies a partnership for sustainable development.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

• SDG 2: Zero Hunger

  • Target 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems… The article’s focus on how drought impacts “agricultural productivity” directly relates to the need for resilient agricultural practices in the face of climate change.

• SDG 4: Quality Education

  • Target 4.7: By 2030, ensure that all learners acquire the knowledge and skills needed to promote sustainable development… The article highlights that the research sites “become hands-on training labs for students… helping to train the next generation of environmental leaders,” which is a direct contribution to this target.

• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation

  • Target 6.4: By 2030, substantially increase water-use efficiency across all sectors and ensure sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater to address water scarcity… The article’s mention of drought’s impact on “providing safe drinking water” underscores the challenge of water scarcity addressed by this target.

• SDG 13: Climate Action

  • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries. The study investigates how ecosystems “lose their ability to recover over time under prolonged dry conditions,” which is a direct analysis of their resilience to climate-related hazards like drought.
  • Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction and early warning. The research itself, conducted by 170 researchers and involving students, enhances human and institutional capacity to understand and predict the impacts of climate change.

• SDG 15: Life on Land

  • Target 15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services… The article’s focus on grasslands and shrublands, which “cover roughly 50% of the Earth’s surface,” and their role in “carbon uptake and sequestration” speaks directly to the sustainable use and conservation of these ecosystems.
  • Target 15.3: By 2030, combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil, including land affected by desertification, drought and floods… The study’s findings about severe productivity loss, potential “soil erosion and dust storms,” and the particular sensitivity of annual grasslands are central to understanding and combating land degradation and desertification caused by drought.

• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

  • Target 17.16: Enhance the Global Partnership for Sustainable Development, complemented by multi-stakeholder partnerships that mobilize and share knowledge, expertise, technology and financial resources… The “International Drought Experiment” described as a “global group of 170 contributing researchers” across six continents is a clear example of such a partnership sharing knowledge and expertise.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• For SDG 15 (Targets 15.1, 15.3)

  • Indicator: Plant Productivity. The article explicitly measures “losses in plant productivity” and states they were “more than twice as high after four years of experimentally induced extreme drought.” This is a direct, quantifiable indicator of ecosystem health and land degradation.
  • Indicator: Rate of Carbon Sequestration. The article mentions that grasslands and shrublands “play a large role in balancing and facilitating carbon uptake and sequestration globally,” which could be “disrupted by drought-induced productivity losses.” Measuring this rate would be an indicator of the ecosystem’s service function.
  • Indicator: Incidence of Soil Erosion and Dust Storms. The article warns that the eventual results of productivity loss could include “soil erosion and dust storms.” The frequency and extent of such events would serve as an indicator of severe land degradation.

• For SDG 13 (Target 13.1)

  • Indicator: Ecosystem Recovery Rate. The study shows that ecosystems “lose their ability to recover over time under prolonged dry conditions.” Measuring the time or extent of recovery after a drought event is an implied indicator of ecosystem resilience.

• For SDG 4 (Target 4.7)

  • Indicator: Number of students trained in environmental science. The article states that “many undergraduate and graduate students have learned how to measure plant productivity” and that the project helps “train the next generation of environmental leaders.” The number of students participating in such research is a tangible indicator of progress.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: news.ucsc.edu