Social mobility ‘flatlining’ despite increased HE participation – Times Higher Education

Report on Higher Education’s Role in Advancing Sustainable Development Goals for Social Mobility

Analysis of Current Trends in Tertiary Education and Social Mobility

A recent report from the Sutton Trust evaluates the efficacy of higher education as a driver for social mobility, revealing both its potential and its limitations in achieving equitable outcomes. The findings indicate a complex landscape where progress in access does not uniformly translate into reduced inequality, a core tenet of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

• Increased Access for First-Generation Students: Between 2012 and 2023, the proportion of 35 to 44-year-olds who were the first in their family to attend university increased by 11 percentage points. This compares to a 5 percentage point increase for those with graduate parents, suggesting progress towards SDG 4 (Quality Education) target 4.3 concerning equal access to tertiary education.
• Diminishing Economic Returns: The positive trend in access was counteracted by an eight percentage point decrease in the earnings uplift associated with a degree. This trend challenges the contribution of higher education to SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth).
• Persistent Disadvantage: Individuals from non-graduate families were found to be 45 per cent less likely to become top earners than their peers from more privileged backgrounds. This highlights a significant barrier to achieving SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities).
• Stagnant Social Mobility: Consequently, overall social mobility has remained flat and is declining in some nations. Family background continues to be a strong determinant of future earnings, indicating a failure to achieve the equal opportunity objectives of SDG 10.

Alignment with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

The report’s findings directly relate to the progress, or lack thereof, on several key SDGs. The data underscores that focusing on a single aspect of development, such as university access, is insufficient for achieving broader goals of equity and prosperity.

1. SDG 4: Quality Education: While access to higher education has widened (Target 4.3), the report questions the quality and equity of outcomes. The persistent earnings gap suggests that educational pathways are not effectively eliminating disparities based on socio-economic background (Target 4.5).
2. SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities: The research demonstrates that family background remains a powerful predictor of economic success, directly contradicting the aim of Target 10.3 to ensure equal opportunity and reduce inequalities of outcome. The university system alone is not mitigating these inherited disadvantages.
3. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth: The declining value of a degree in terms of earnings uplift and the high number of young people not in education, employment, or training (NEET) signal significant challenges to achieving Target 8.6. The report implies that the current education system is not adequately preparing all individuals for productive employment and decent work.

Policy Recommendations for Achieving SDG Targets

The report concludes that higher education cannot be a “silver bullet” for social mobility and calls for a more holistic approach to tertiary education and employment to advance the SDGs.

• Diversify Educational Pathways: There is a critical need to develop and promote a range of high-quality vocational and technical education routes. This aligns with SDG 4.4 (skills for employment) and provides viable alternatives for individuals, particularly those from lower-income backgrounds who are less likely to enter university.
• Adopt Multi-Pronged Strategies: Policymakers should look to models from countries like Ireland, Chile, and Lithuania, which have successfully widened university access while also improving overall social mobility. This suggests that integrated policies addressing both education and labor market barriers are essential for achieving SDG 10.
• Address Systemic Barriers: Efforts must extend beyond educational institutions to tackle barriers to opportunity within the labor market and employment sectors. This is crucial for ensuring that educational attainment translates into decent work and economic security, as envisioned in SDG 8.

Country-Specific Case Study: The United Kingdom

The situation in the UK provides a clear example of the challenges outlined in the report.

• Partial Success: One in three UK graduates from non-graduate families becomes a top earner, compared to only one in eight non-graduates from similar backgrounds. This shows that a degree does provide some upward mobility.
• Enduring Inequality: Graduates from advantaged families maintain a significant advantage, demonstrating a persistent gap in achieving the equality targets of SDG 10.
• Urgent Call to Action: With nearly one million 16 to 24-year-olds not in education, employment, or training (NEET), the report serves as a “wake-up call” for UK policymakers. Achieving SDG Target 8.6 requires urgent and effective post-16 education reforms that create a stronger mix of routes across the entire tertiary education system.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

1. SDG 4: Quality Education

   The article is fundamentally about education, specifically tertiary education and its role in society. It discusses access to university, the quality of educational pathways, and the need for diverse options like vocational and technical training. The core theme revolves around ensuring that education serves as a tool for personal and societal advancement, which is the essence of SDG 4.

2. SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

   A primary focus of the article is the disparity in outcomes based on socioeconomic background. It highlights how “family background still a strong predictor of future earnings” and that individuals from non-graduate families are significantly less likely to become top earners, even if they attend university. This directly addresses the goal of reducing inequalities within and among countries by examining how educational systems succeed or fail in promoting social mobility.

3. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

   The article connects education directly to employment and economic outcomes. It discusses the “uplift in earnings associated with a degree” and the importance of providing “high-quality, vocational and technical routes” to prepare young people for the labor market. The mention of “nearly a million 16- to 24-year-olds in the UK not currently in education, employment or training” explicitly links the discussion to the challenge of youth employment, a key component of SDG 8.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. SDG 4: Quality Education

   • Target 4.3: By 2030, ensure equal access for all women and men to affordable and quality technical, vocational and tertiary education, including university. The article directly addresses this by analyzing the increase in “the proportion of 35- to 44-year-olds who were the first in their family to attend university” and calling for a “doubling down on efforts to widen access to more selective institutions.”
   • Target 4.4: By 2030, substantially increase the number of youth and adults who have relevant skills, including technical and vocational skills, for employment, decent jobs and entrepreneurship. This is identified in the call for “a range of high-quality, vocational and technical routes for those who don’t enter university,” recognizing that university is not the only pathway to successful employment.

2. SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

   • Target 10.2: By 2030, empower and promote the social, economic and political inclusion of all, irrespective of… economic or other status. The article’s central theme of social mobility being “flat and even declining” despite increased university access shows a failure in economic inclusion. The fact that family background remains a strong predictor of earnings points directly to the challenges addressed by this target.
   • Target 10.3: Ensure equal opportunity and reduce inequalities of outcome… The article highlights a clear inequality of outcome by stating that “Individuals from non-graduate families were 45 per cent less likely to become top earners than their more privileged peers,” even after obtaining a degree. This demonstrates that equal access to education does not guarantee equal opportunity or outcomes.

3. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

   • Target 8.6: By 2020, substantially reduce the proportion of youth not in employment, education or training. The article explicitly references this issue by stating, “With nearly a million 16- to 24-year-olds in the UK not currently in education, employment or training, Harrison said ‘the stakes for the government’s post-16 education reforms couldn’t be higher’.” This directly aligns with the goal of reducing the NEET (Not in Education, Employment, or Training) rate among youth.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Yes, the article mentions several quantitative and qualitative indicators that can be used to measure progress.

1. Indicators for SDG 4 (Quality Education)

   • Proportion of first-generation university students: The article measures access by noting that “the proportion of 35- to 44-year-olds who were the first in their family to attend university rose 11 percentage points between 2012 and 2023.” This serves as an indicator for Target 4.3 on equal access.

2. Indicators for SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities)

   • Earnings uplift from a degree: The article mentions an “eight percentage point fall in the uplift in earnings associated with a degree,” which measures the economic return on education and can indicate whether its value in reducing inequality is changing.
   • Likelihood of becoming a top earner by family background: The statistic that “Individuals from non-graduate families were 45 per cent less likely to become top earners” is a direct indicator of inequality of outcome (Target 10.3).
   • Correlation between family background and future earnings: The finding that “family background still a strong predictor of future earnings” is a qualitative indicator that social mobility is stalled, pointing to persistent inequality.

3. Indicators for SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth)

   • Proportion of youth not in education, employment, or training (NEET): The article provides a specific number: “nearly a million 16- to 24-year-olds in the UK not currently in education, employment or training.” This is the official indicator (8.6.1) for measuring progress on Target 8.6.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: timeshighereducation.com