The Trend for Fertilizer Prices in 2026 – Hoosier Ag Today

Report on 2026 Fertilizer Market Outlook and Alignment with Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary: Fertilizer Affordability and Global Food Security

Elevated fertilizer prices in 2025 are projected to persist into 2026, posing a direct challenge to SDG 2: Zero Hunger by impacting agricultural productivity and food affordability. This report, based on analysis from StoneX, examines the market dynamics for key fertilizer components and evaluates the potential for increased domestic production to mitigate these challenges in line with several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Global Supply Chain Analysis and SDG Implications

The global fertilizer market is experiencing varied conditions across its main components, with significant implications for international development targets.

• Phosphate: The global supply remains constricted, primarily due to a significant reduction in exports from China, which is exporting approximately half of its normal volume. This market tightness elevates prices, directly threatening crop yields and undermining efforts toward SDG 2: Zero Hunger. The lack of alternative suppliers exacerbates this vulnerability in the global food system.
• Urea (Nitrogen): The outlook is more favorable, with increased exports from China expected to provide some price relief. Stabilized production in the Middle East, contingent on regional peace, is also a positive factor. This highlights the interconnectedness of SDG 16: Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions with the stable supply chains essential for food security (SDG 2).
• Potash: The market is characterized by stability, largely due to logistical efficiency and consistent supply from Canada. This regional reliability supports North American agricultural planning and contributes to the resilience needed to achieve SDG 2.

Strategic Imperative for Domestic Production and Sustainable Industrialization

A key strategic recommendation is to reduce import dependency by increasing domestic fertilizer production within the United States. This approach aligns with multiple SDGs and offers a pathway to a more resilient and sustainable agricultural sector.

1. Enhancing National Food Security: Shifting production domestically would insulate farmers from global supply shocks and geopolitical instability, strengthening the foundation for SDG 2: Zero Hunger and promoting resilient infrastructure as outlined in SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure.
2. Leveraging National Assets for Economic Growth: The U.S. possesses key advantages, including abundant, low-cost natural gas supplies and a stable political environment. Capitalizing on these assets to build new production facilities would stimulate local economies and create jobs, directly supporting SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth.
3. Promoting Responsible and Clean Production: Domestic manufacturing can be held to higher environmental standards than many international sources. This presents an opportunity to produce essential agricultural inputs more cleanly, advancing SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production by minimizing the environmental footprint of the food supply chain.

Conclusion: Aligning Agricultural Inputs with Sustainable Development

The 2026 fertilizer market outlook underscores the vulnerability of global food systems to supply chain disruptions. A strategic shift towards increased domestic production offers a multi-faceted solution that not only addresses price and availability but also strongly aligns with core principles of the Sustainable Development Goals.

• SDG 2 (Zero Hunger): By ensuring a stable and affordable supply of essential farm inputs.
• SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth): Through investment in domestic manufacturing and job creation.
• SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure): By building a resilient and modern industrial base for agriculture.
• SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production): By implementing cleaner production technologies and shortening supply chains.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

1. SDG 2: Zero Hunger
   • The article’s central theme is the price and availability of fertilizer, a critical input for agriculture. High prices and supply chain disruptions, as discussed (“The prices that farmers are paying for fertilizer remain sky-high”), directly impact farmers’ ability to produce food, affecting agricultural productivity and the stability of food production systems.
2. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure
   • The article explicitly calls for increasing domestic industrial capacity to solve supply issues. The statement, “let’s produce this at home let’s build those plans here,” is a direct appeal for industrialization and infrastructure development to reduce reliance on imports and create a more resilient domestic supply chain.
3. SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production
   • The article touches on the environmental aspect of production. The suggestion to produce fertilizer domestically is justified by the claim that “we can produce it cleaner than the rest of world are Sanders are going to be higher than what other people can do.” This relates to promoting more sustainable and environmentally sound production practices.
4. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals
   • The issues described are rooted in global trade and international partnerships. The article details how the U.S. market is affected by the actions of other countries, such as China’s reduced phosphate exports (“China is normally the world’s largest exporter… I will be thrilled if they hit 4.5 million tons this year”) and reliance on imports from “Russia in the Middle East.” This highlights the interconnectedness of global supply chains and trade policies.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. Under SDG 2 (Zero Hunger):
   • Target 2.3: “By 2030, double the agricultural productivity and incomes of small-scale food producers…” The article’s focus on “sky-high” fertilizer prices directly relates to this target, as high input costs can severely reduce farmers’ incomes and hinder their ability to invest in measures that would increase productivity.
   • Target 2.4: “By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices…” The discussion of global supply shortages for phosphate and the U.S.’s heavy reliance on imports points to a lack of resilience in the current agricultural system. A stable and affordable fertilizer supply is essential for sustainable food production.
2. Under SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure):
   • Target 9.2: “Promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization…” The call to “build those plans here and quit being reliant on tons coming from like Russia in the Middle East” is a direct argument for increasing domestic industrialization (specifically in fertilizer manufacturing) to enhance economic self-sufficiency and supply chain stability.
3. Under SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production):
   • Target 12.2: “By 2030, achieve the sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources.” The article mentions that the U.S. has “some of the best natural gas supplies in the world,” a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer. The argument to use this domestic resource to produce fertilizer locally relates to the efficient and strategic management of national natural resources.
4. Under SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals):
   • Target 17.11: “Significantly increase the exports of developing countries…” While the article focuses on a developed country’s import issues, it illustrates the global trade system this target addresses. The sharp decline in exports from a major player like China (“They normally export 8-to-10 million tons… thrilled if they hit 4.5 million tons”) demonstrates the volatility and impact of global trade flows on all nations.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

1. Fertilizer Prices:
   • The article explicitly mentions that “prices that farmers are paying for fertilizer remain sky-high.” The market price of fertilizers like phosphate, urea, and potash is a direct indicator of their affordability for farmers, which is crucial for measuring progress towards Target 2.3 (farmer incomes and productivity).
2. Volume of Exports and Imports:
   • The article provides specific figures for fertilizer trade, such as China’s phosphate exports dropping from a normal of “8-to-10 million tons” to a potential “4.5 million tons.” This volume is a key indicator for monitoring global supply chains and trade stability, relevant to Target 2.4 and Target 17.11.
3. Level of Import Reliance:
   • The statement that “the U.S. is heavily reliant on importing the entire supply” implies an indicator measuring the ratio of domestically produced fertilizer to imported fertilizer. A decrease in this reliance would indicate progress towards Target 9.2 (promoting domestic industrialization).
4. Domestic Production Capacity:
   • The call to “build those plans here” suggests that the number of domestic fertilizer plants and their total production capacity would be a key indicator of progress. This directly measures the advancement of industrial infrastructure as envisioned in Target 9.2.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: hoosieragtoday.com