A 2025 check in with Oregon’s ambitious education goal, 40-40-20 – Oregon Public Broadcasting – OPB

Analysis of Oregon’s Educational Attainment Goals in Relation to Sustainable Development Goal 4

This report analyzes the State of Oregon’s educational attainment initiative, known as the “40-40-20” goal, through the lens of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with a primary focus on SDG 4: Quality Education.

The “40-40-20” Initiative: A Framework for SDG 4

In 2011, Oregon established an ambitious educational vision for 2025, reflecting key targets within SDG 4. The goal was designed to ensure comprehensive educational pathways from secondary to tertiary levels.

Core Components of the Initiative

• 100% High School Completion: This component directly aligns with SDG Target 4.1, which aims to ensure that all children complete free, equitable, and quality primary and secondary education.
• 40% Attainment of a Four-Year Degree: This supports SDG Target 4.3, focused on ensuring equal access to affordable and quality tertiary education, including university.
• 40% Attainment of a Two-Year Degree or Credential: This objective promotes SDG Target 4.3 and SDG Target 4.4, which emphasizes increasing the number of youth and adults with relevant technical and vocational skills for employment and decent jobs.
• 20% Attainment of a High School Diploma or GED: This foundational layer ensures a baseline of education for the entire youth population, contributing to SDG Target 4.1.

Performance Assessment and Progress Toward SDG Targets

An evaluation of Oregon’s progress reveals significant gains alongside persistent challenges in fully realizing the targets set forth by the initiative and, by extension, the associated SDGs.

Progress in Secondary Education (SDG Target 4.1)

The state has made considerable progress in increasing secondary school completion rates.

1. The high school graduation rate increased from 69% in 2011 to 82% for the Class of 2024.
2. Despite this improvement, the 100% completion goal remains unmet, and Oregon continues to rank in the bottom third of U.S. states for high school graduation.

Progress in Tertiary and Vocational Education (SDG Targets 4.3 & 4.4)

Progress toward post-secondary attainment goals has been mixed, with the state falling short of its 2025 targets.

• Four-Year Degrees: The state has reached 39% attainment, nearly achieving the 40% goal. However, this figure is partly influenced by the in-migration of college-educated individuals.
• Two-Year Degrees/Credentials: At 18%, attainment in this category is significantly below the 40% target, indicating a substantial gap in providing accessible vocational and associate degree pathways.

Challenges and Setbacks to SDG Attainment

Several factors have impeded Oregon’s progress, highlighting systemic barriers to achieving quality education for all.

• Pandemic-Related Learning Loss: The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant educational disruptions, with reports indicating that Oregon experienced learning losses at a rate two to three times higher than other states, stalling progress toward SDG 4.
• Persistent Equity Gaps: Officials acknowledge that educational equity gaps have not been closed, a critical challenge that undermines SDG Target 4.5, which seeks to eliminate disparities in education and ensure equal access for vulnerable populations.
• Socio-Economic Barriers: Students report that personal circumstances, such as family health issues or the need to care for siblings, create significant obstacles to educational attainment, reflecting the complex realities that policy must address to be effective.

Strategic Readjustment and Future Outlook

In response to the outcomes and challenges, Oregon’s education leaders are recalibrating their goals to create more achievable and accountable frameworks.

Revised High School Graduation Target

A new, interim goal has been established to advance progress on secondary completion.

• Governor Tina Kotek has proposed a revised target of a 90% high school graduation rate by 2027.
• This shift has raised concerns about which 10% of students might be left behind, a question that directly engages with the core SDG principle of “leaving no one behind.”
• The new goal is intended to be supported by an accountability plan that links funding to progress, a strategy aimed at improving return on investment in education.

Re-evaluation of Higher Education Goals

The Higher Education Coordinating Commission (HECC) is planning to develop a new long-term goal for 2035 or 2045. This future strategy will be informed by the lessons of the 40-40-20 initiative, aiming to balance aspirational targets with measurable outcomes that are within institutional control.

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

SDG 4: Quality Education

• The entire article is centered on educational attainment goals in Oregon, which is the core focus of SDG 4. It discusses the state’s ambition to ensure all students graduate from high school and a large percentage pursue higher education or vocational training. The text explicitly deals with targets for secondary and tertiary education completion, the quality of educational outcomes (referencing “learning losses”), and equity in education.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

SDG 4: Quality Education

1. Target 4.1: By 2030, ensure that all girls and boys complete free, equitable and quality primary and secondary education leading to relevant and effective learning outcomes.
   • The article directly addresses this target through its extensive discussion of Oregon’s goal for 100% high school graduation. It tracks the state’s progress from a 69% graduation rate to the current 82% and mentions the new, revised goal of 90% by 2027. This focus on high school completion is a primary theme.
2. Target 4.3: By 2030, ensure equal access for all women and men to affordable and quality technical, vocational and tertiary education, including university.
   • The “40-40-20” goal is a direct reflection of this target. The article specifies the state’s objective for “40% of young Oregonians should have a 4-year degree, 40% should have a 2-year degree or other credential, and the remaining 20% would have at least a high school diploma or GED.” This breaks down the desired outcomes for tertiary (4-year degree) and technical/vocational (2-year degree or credential) education.
3. Target 4.5: By 2030, eliminate gender disparities in education and ensure equal access to all levels of education and vocational training for the vulnerable.
   • The article highlights this target by mentioning the need to address equity issues. Ben Cannon is quoted saying, “We have not closed all the equity gaps, and we need to do more to fulfill the promise and commitment that we’ve made to Oregon students.” Furthermore, the concern raised by Carla Gay about the new 90% goal—”Which 10% are we not going to graduate? How are we deciding that?”—directly points to the importance of ensuring that vulnerable or marginalized student groups are not left behind, which is the essence of Target 4.5.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Indicators for SDG 4 Targets

1. For Target 4.1:
   • Indicator: High school graduation rate. The article provides specific data points for this indicator: the initial rate of 69% when the goal was set, the current statewide rate of 82%, the aspirational goal of 100%, and the revised target of 90% by 2027.
2. For Target 4.3:
   • Indicator: Percentage of the population with specific levels of educational attainment. The article uses the “40-40-20” framework as a set of indicators. It measures progress by stating the current attainment is “more like 39-18-20,” providing a clear, quantifiable measure of progress towards the goal for 4-year degrees, 2-year degrees, and other credentials.
   • Indicator: College enrollment rates. The article mentions that Oregon has been “seeing stagnant college enrollment rates for more than a decade,” implying this is a key metric being tracked to assess progress in higher education.
3. For Target 4.5:
   • Indicator: Measurement of equity gaps in educational outcomes. While the article does not provide disaggregated data, it explicitly states, “We have not closed all the equity gaps.” This implies that the measurement and monitoring of outcomes across different student populations is a key indicator for assessing whether education is equitable.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: opb.org