A decade after Paris, how much hotter has our planet become? – Euronews.com

A Decade Post-Paris Agreement: An Assessment of Progress on Sustainable Development Goal 13

This report analyzes climate change developments in the decade following the 2015 Paris Agreement, evaluating progress and setbacks in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with a primary focus on SDG 13 (Climate Action).

Global Temperature Trends and the 1.5°C Target

The primary objective of the Paris Agreement, directly aligned with SDG 13, was to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2°C, while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. Data from the past decade indicates significant challenges to achieving this goal.

Record-Breaking Temperatures

• The period from 2015 to 2024 has been officially recorded as the warmest 10-year period in history.
• Every year since the agreement was signed has ranked among the 10 warmest on record, underscoring the accelerating pace of climate change.
• According to the UN Secretary-General, a temporary overshoot of the 1.5°C threshold is now considered inevitable, signaling a critical juncture for global climate policy.

Accelerated Proximity to the 1.5°C Threshold

The timeline for reaching the 1.5°C warming limit has shortened dramatically, indicating that global warming has accelerated faster than anticipated.

1. 2015 Projection: At the time of the Paris Agreement, data suggested the 1.5°C threshold would be reached by approximately March 2042.
2. Current Projection: Based on 2025 data, the 1.5°C threshold is now projected to be reached around 2029, a full 23 years sooner than the initial estimate.

Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentrations

Rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are the primary driver of global warming, directly undermining progress on SDG 13 and impacting other related goals such as SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 15 (Life on Land).

Post-2015 Emissions Trajectory

• Greenhouse gas levels have steadily risen, reaching a record high in 2024.
• Carbon Dioxide (CO2): Concentrations have increased by 5.51% since 2015, reaching 422 parts per million (ppm).
• Methane (CH4): Concentrations have increased by 4.86% over the same period, reaching 1,897 parts per billion (ppb).

Sources of Emissions

Fossil fuel emissions remain the dominant contributor to rising CO2 levels. However, other sources also pose significant challenges to environmental and human health goals.

• Fossil fuels accounted for nearly 75% of total carbon emissions in 2024.
• Wildfires in 2025 released over 1,300 megatonnes of carbon and significant amounts of particulate matter, which degrades air quality and negatively impacts SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being) and damages ecosystems central to SDG 15 (Life on Land).

Impacts on Human Systems and Well-being

The consequences of a warming climate are increasingly evident through the intensification of extreme weather events, which pose direct threats to human health, infrastructure, and community resilience, affecting SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being) and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities).

Increased Frequency of Extreme Heat

• On average, nations worldwide experienced 11 more days of extreme heat per year in the last decade compared to the decade prior to the Paris Agreement.
• Analysis of major heatwaves, such as the 2023 event in Southern Europe, reveals they would have been nearly impossible without human-induced climate change.
• A heatwave of that magnitude is now 70% more likely and 0.6°C hotter than it would have been a decade ago, highlighting a severe and growing risk to public health.

Global Policy and Future Outlook

While the data indicates a failure to meet key targets, global policy efforts have altered the long-term warming trajectory. This underscores the importance of SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals) in mobilizing collective action.

Progress and Remaining Gaps

• 2015 Projection: The UN Environment Programme’s “baseline” projection estimated approximately 4°C of warming by 2100.
• Current Projection: The latest reports project warming of 2.8°C under current policies, or between 2.3°C and 2.5°C if all national climate plans are fully implemented.

This improvement demonstrates that policy can influence outcomes, but current commitments remain insufficient to meet the 1.5°C goal. The findings present a clear mandate for strengthening international cooperation and accelerating the transition to sustainable systems to achieve SDG 13 and safeguard progress across the entire 2030 Agenda.

1. SDGs Addressed in the Article

• SDG 13: Climate Action

  The entire article is centered on climate change, which is the core focus of SDG 13. It discusses the Paris Agreement, rising global temperatures, increasing greenhouse gas emissions, and the growing frequency of extreme weather events. The text explicitly analyzes the progress, or lack thereof, since 2015 in combating climate change, directly aligning with the goal to “take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.”

• SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being

  The article connects climate change impacts to human health. It mentions that wildfires, a consequence of climate change, release “huge amounts of particulate matter, which degrades air quality and has a harmful impact on human health.” This directly links the environmental issue to public health concerns, which is a key aspect of SDG 3, particularly its focus on reducing illnesses from air pollution.

2. Specific Targets Identified

• SDG 13: Climate Action

  1. Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.

     The article highlights the increasing threat of climate-related hazards. It states, “Extreme weather events have become more intense and more frequent,” and provides specific data on extreme heat, noting that “countries around the world have experienced 11 more hot days per year during the last decade.” The analysis of heatwaves, such as the one in Southern Europe which was “70 per cent more likely and 0.6°C hotter” than a decade ago, underscores the urgent need for countries to build resilience against these escalating disasters.

  2. Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning.

     The article is framed around the Paris Agreement, a landmark international policy to combat climate change. It evaluates the effectiveness of this agreement by tracking global warming projections and emissions. The text discusses how the world is now heading for “2.8°C warming if countries implement their current climate policies and between 2.3 and 2.5°C if signatories to the Paris Agreement fully implement their national climate plans.” This directly relates to the integration and implementation of climate change measures in national policies.

• SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being

  1. Target 3.9: By 2030, substantially reduce the number of deaths and illnesses from hazardous chemicals and air, water and soil pollution and contamination.

     This target is addressed when the article discusses the secondary effects of climate change. It points out that wildfires, exacerbated by climate conditions, “released… huge amounts of particulate matter, which degrades air quality and has a harmful impact on human health.” This statement directly connects an environmental pollutant (particulate matter from wildfires) to negative health outcomes, aligning with the goal of reducing illness from air pollution.

3. Indicators Mentioned or Implied

• Indicators for SDG 13 Targets

  1. Global Average Temperature Increase: The article provides precise data points that serve as indicators for climate action effectiveness. It notes the global temperature was “1.04ºC above pre-industrial levels” in 2015 and is now estimated to be “1.4ºC above pre-industrial levels.” This measurement directly tracks progress (or lack thereof) towards the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting the increase to 1.5°C.
  2. Greenhouse Gas Concentrations: The article explicitly quantifies the rise in key greenhouse gases, which is a primary indicator of climate change. It states that since 2015, “carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased by 5.51 per cent… [reaching] 422 parts per million (ppm)” and “methane concentrations increased by 4.86 per cent, reaching 1,897 parts per billion (ppb).” These figures are direct measures of atmospheric changes that climate policies aim to control.
  3. Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Weather Events: To measure the impact of climate-related hazards (Target 13.1), the article provides data on the increased likelihood of extreme heat. It mentions “11 more hot days per year” on average and that a heatwave like the one in Southern Europe is now “70 per cent more likely.” These statistics act as indicators of worsening climate impacts.

• Indicators for SDG 3 Target

  1. Air Pollutant Levels: While the article does not provide mortality rates (the official indicator for Target 3.9), it implies the measurement of air quality by referencing a key pollutant. The statement that wildfires release “huge amounts of particulate matter, which degrades air quality” points to the concentration of particulate matter in the atmosphere as an indicator of environmental health risk.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: euronews.com