Caspian Sea Decline Harms Iran and Raises Regional Tensions – Stimson Center

Report on the Environmental and Geopolitical Crisis of the Caspian Sea

Executive Summary

The Caspian Sea, the world’s largest inland water body, is experiencing a rapid and severe decline in water levels, posing a significant threat to regional stability and the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This report analyzes the drivers of this environmental crisis, its multifaceted impacts on the littoral states, particularly Iran, and the corresponding geopolitical tensions. The crisis directly undermines progress on SDG 6 (Clean Water), SDG 13 (Climate Action), SDG 14 (Life Below Water), SDG 15 (Life on Land), and SDG 16 (Peace and Justice), necessitating urgent, cooperative action aligned with SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).

Analysis of Environmental Degradation Drivers

Climate Change and Water Scarcity: A Challenge to SDG 13 and SDG 6

The primary drivers of the Caspian Sea’s desiccation are directly linked to global climate change, posing a critical challenge to SDG 13 (Climate Action). Key climatic factors include:

• Increased Evaporation: Rising air temperatures, which increased by approximately 1°C between 1979 and 2015, have accelerated evaporation rates, creating a chronic water deficit.
• Reduced Inflow: Decreased precipitation and reduced snowmelt have diminished discharge from feeder rivers. The Volga River, which supplies nearly 80% of the sea’s freshwater, has been significantly affected, disrupting the sea’s hydrological balance.

These factors are compounded by anthropogenic pressures that exacerbate water scarcity, directly impacting SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation). Widespread dam construction and water diversion for agriculture and industry have severely restricted freshwater inflow, while pollution from urban and industrial runoff degrades the quality of remaining water resources.

Socio-Ecological Impacts and Setbacks for Sustainable Development

Biodiversity and Ecosystem Collapse: Undermining SDG 14 and SDG 15

The ecological consequences of the declining water levels represent a severe threat to marine and terrestrial ecosystems, directly contravening the objectives of SDG 14 (Life Below Water) and SDG 15 (Life on Land).

1. Marine Habitat Loss: A 5-meter drop in sea level is projected to eliminate 57% to 81% of the critical breeding habitat for the Caspian seal (Pusa caspica). Sturgeon populations, vital to the regional economy, face a 25%–45% loss of their shallow spawning grounds.
2. Threats to Endemic Species: Over 300 endemic invertebrates and 76 fish species are at risk of cascading extinctions as Ecologically or Biologically Significant Areas (EBSAs) shrink.
3. Terrestrial and Wetland Degradation: The desiccation is creating vast, contaminated salt flats, leading to soil salinization and poor air quality. This process threatens UNESCO World Heritage sites like the Hyrcanian Forests and vital habitats such as the Anzali wetland, which faces near-complete disappearance by 2100.

Economic and Infrastructural Consequences: A Risk to SDG 8 and SDG 11

The environmental crisis is precipitating significant economic and social disruption, impeding progress toward SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities).

• Economic Losses: The collapse of fisheries due to pollution, overfishing, and habitat loss has destroyed local livelihoods and threatens food security. The tourism sector has also declined as coastal areas suffer from ecological decay. Economic damages are projected to exceed $10 billion annually by 2030.
• Infrastructure Failure: Critical infrastructure is becoming stranded. Ports such as Anzali are now located over a kilometer from the receding shoreline, halting maritime operations and imposing immense economic burdens for dredging or relocation on sanctioned economies like Iran’s.

Geopolitical Instability and Governance Failures

Resource Conflict and Institutional Weakness: A Threat to SDG 16

The shrinking of the Caspian Sea is escalating geopolitical tensions and revealing significant governance gaps, undermining SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions). The lack of effective, cooperative management frameworks turns ecological stress into a driver of regional instability.

• Boundary and Resource Disputes: Declining water levels threaten to alter established maritime boundaries, potentially reigniting conflicts over fishing rights and access to subsea resources, including 48 billion barrels of oil and 292 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
• Weak Governance: The 2018 Caspian Sea Legal Status Convention has proven difficult to enforce, creating a governance vacuum. Disagreements over resource allocation and unilateral actions by littoral states have hindered cooperative environmental management.
• Increased Militarization: The region is experiencing growing militarization, exemplified by joint exercises such as CASAREX 2025. This trend reflects the sea’s strategic importance and the potential for ecological pressures to escalate into security confrontations.

Conclusion and Recommendations for Achieving SDG 17

The Caspian Sea crisis is a complex challenge where environmental degradation, economic decline, and geopolitical tension intersect, threatening multiple Sustainable Development Goals. Addressing this crisis requires a robust, multilateral approach grounded in SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals). A failure to act collaboratively will transform a manageable environmental issue into a severe security and development catastrophe. Recommended actions include:

1. Strengthening and enforcing regional agreements, such as the Tehran Convention, with a clear focus on integrated water resource management.
2. Establishing a joint scientific monitoring program to provide reliable data for policy-making and track progress toward shared environmental targets.
3. Implementing coordinated pollution control measures and investing in ecosystem restoration projects, particularly for critical wetlands and spawning grounds.
4. Promoting diplomatic dialogue to resolve boundary and resource disputes peacefully, ensuring that ecological preservation is central to all negotiations.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation – The article discusses the declining water levels, pollution from various sources, and the degradation of wetlands, all of which are central to water resource management.
• SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth – The text highlights the negative economic impacts on fisheries, the caviar industry, tourism, and infrastructure, leading to significant financial losses and threatening livelihoods.
• SDG 13: Climate Action – Climate change is identified as a primary driver of the Caspian Sea’s decline, through increased air temperatures, evaporation, and altered precipitation patterns.
• SDG 14: Life Below Water – The article extensively covers the threats to marine biodiversity, including the Caspian seal, sturgeon populations, and numerous fish species, due to habitat loss, pollution, and overfishing.
• SDG 15: Life on Land – The degradation of coastal and inland ecosystems, such as the Hyrcanian Forests (a UNESCO World Heritage site), Gorgan Bay, and the Anzali wetland, is a key issue discussed.
• SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions – The article points to rising geopolitical tensions, potential conflicts over resources and maritime boundaries, regional militarization, and a “governance void” due to weak enforcement of international agreements.
• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals – The conclusion explicitly calls for “coordinated, scientifically grounded, and regionally cooperative policies” among the littoral states to address the crisis, emphasizing the need for partnership.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation
  • Target 6.3: By 2030, improve water quality by reducing pollution. The article mentions that “Contaminants from city water runoff, farming, and factory outputs are worsening water purity.”
  • Target 6.5: By 2030, implement integrated water resources management at all levels, including through transboundary cooperation as appropriate. The article highlights the lack of cooperation and the need for “regionally cooperative policies” to manage the shared water body.
  • Target 6.6: By 2020, protect and restore water-related ecosystems, including mountains, forests, wetlands, rivers, aquifers and lakes. The text details the swift decline of the Anzali wetland and other coastal ecosystems.
• SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
  • Target 8.4: Improve progressively, through 2030, global resource efficiency in consumption and production and endeavour to decouple economic growth from environmental degradation. The article illustrates the opposite, where environmental degradation is causing severe economic damage, with “yearly economic damages surpassing $10 billion annually by 2030.”
  • Target 8.9: By 2030, devise and implement policies to promote sustainable tourism that creates jobs and promotes local culture and products. The article notes that “Tourism has also waned as coastal resorts experience ecological decay and pollution.”
• SDG 13: Climate Action
  • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries. The article describes the Caspian region’s vulnerability to climate-driven impacts like increased evaporation and decreased river inflows, which are causing a “natural disaster.”
• SDG 14: Life Below Water
  • Target 14.1: By 2025, prevent and significantly reduce marine pollution of all kinds. The article mentions pollution from “contaminants and oil and gas operations” as a factor harming the sea.
  • Target 14.2: By 2020, sustainably manage and protect marine and coastal ecosystems to avoid significant adverse impacts. The text details the severe threats to ecologically fragile regions like Gorgan Bay and the loss of critical habitats for seals and sturgeon.
  • Target 14.4: By 2020, effectively regulate harvesting and end overfishing, illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing. The article states that sturgeon populations are harmed by the “harmful effects of overfishing and poaching.”
• SDG 15: Life on Land
  • Target 15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services, in particular forests, wetlands, mountains and drylands. The article describes the degradation of the Hyrcanian Forests and the “near-complete disappearance” of wetlands like Anzali.
  • Target 15.5: Take urgent and significant action to reduce the degradation of natural habitats, halt the loss of biodiversity and, by 2020, protect and prevent the extinction of threatened species. The article warns that “Over 300 endemic invertebrates and 76 fish species could face cascading extinctions.”
• SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions
  • Target 16.1: Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere. The article warns that declining water levels could spark “renewed conflicts over fishing rights and subsea assets” and notes the region’s intensifying “militarization.”
  • Target 16.7: Ensure responsive, inclusive, participatory and representative decision-making at all levels. The article points to a “governance void” and “misaligned priorities” among the littoral states, indicating a failure in effective decision-making.
• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals
  • Target 17.14: Enhance policy coherence for sustainable development. The article highlights how “misaligned priorities” and weak enforcement of agreements like the 2018 Legal Status Convention undermine sustainable management of the Caspian Sea.
  • Target 17.16: Enhance the global partnership for sustainable development, complemented by multi-stakeholder partnerships. The conclusion directly calls for “regionally cooperative policies” as the only way to address the crisis, embodying the spirit of this target.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Yes, the article provides several quantitative and qualitative indicators that can be used to measure the environmental and socio-economic decline, and by extension, progress towards the SDGs.

• Rate of water level decline: The article specifies “yearly declines of up to 30 centimeters” and projects future losses of “9 to 21 meters by 2100.” This is a direct indicator for the health of the water body (SDG 6, 14, 15).
• Reduction in sea surface area: The text quantifies the impact of water level decline, stating a 5-meter drop would reduce the surface area by “20% (77,000 km2).” This measures the extent of ecosystem loss (SDG 14, 15).
• Loss of critical habitats: Specific metrics are given, such as Caspian seals losing “between 57% and 81% of its critical habitat” and sturgeon losing “25%–45% of their shallow spawning grounds.” This is an indicator for biodiversity and ecosystem health (SDG 14, 15).
• Biodiversity loss metrics: The potential for “cascading extinctions” of “Over 300 endemic invertebrates and 76 fish species” serves as a stark indicator of biodiversity loss (SDG 15.5).
• Economic damage estimates: The forecast of “yearly economic damages surpassing $10 billion annually by 2030” is a clear economic indicator linked to environmental degradation (SDG 8.4).
• Temperature increase: The mention of air temperatures “rising approximately 1°C from 1979 to 2015” is a climate indicator directly linked to the cause of the problem (SDG 13).
• Reduction in river inflow: The fact that the Volga River, which provides “nearly 80% of the sea’s freshwater,” has suffered reduced flow is a key indicator for water balance and resource management (SDG 6.5).

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators Summary

Source: stimson.org