Fossil fuel emissions rise again – but renewables boom offers hope for climate – BBC

Report on Global Carbon Emissions and Progress Towards Sustainable Development Goals

Introduction: Emissions Trends and SDG Implications

A 2025 analysis of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reveals a critical divergence in progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). While emissions from fossil fuels are projected to reach a new record high, undermining efforts for SDG 13 (Climate Action), the rapid expansion of renewable energy sources offers a pathway to achieving SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy). This report synthesizes recent data to evaluate the current state of global emissions, the impact of clean energy, and the significant challenges remaining to meet international climate targets.

Analysis of 2025 Carbon Emission Projections

Fossil Fuel and Land-Use Emissions

The Global Carbon Budget team, comprising over 130 scientists, projects mixed results for 2025, highlighting persistent challenges to SDG 13.

• Emissions from fossil fuels and cement are forecast to increase by 1.1% from 2024, reaching a record 38.1 billion tonnes of CO2.
• In contrast, emissions from land-use changes, such as deforestation, are projected to decrease. This positive trend supports SDG 15 (Life on Land).
• Total emissions from all human activities are expected to see a marginal decline to 42.2 billion tonnes in 2025, down from 42.4 billion in 2024.

Decoupling Economic Growth from Emissions

A significant positive trend is the slowing rate of emissions growth and the decoupling of economic activity from carbon output, which aligns with SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) and SDG 13.

• The average annual emissions growth rate has slowed to 0.3% in the last decade, compared to 1.9% in the previous decade.
• Over the past 10 years, 35 countries have successfully reduced their fossil fuel emissions while simultaneously achieving economic growth.

The Role of Renewable Energy in Achieving SDG 7 and SDG 13

Impact on the Power Sector

The expansion of renewable energy is central to mitigating climate change and is a primary driver for achieving SDG 7. Analysis from the think tank Ember indicates a pivotal shift in the electricity sector.

• Electricity generation from fossil fuels is projected to flatline or slightly decline in 2025, a first since the COVID-19 pandemic.
• This stabilization occurred despite a sharp increase in global electricity demand.
• The additional demand was met entirely by the record expansion of wind and, most notably, solar power, which is growing faster than any electricity source in history.

Prospects for Peak Emissions

The success in the power sector suggests that global emissions may be approaching a peak, a crucial milestone for SDG 13. However, reaching a peak is not the final objective.

1. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that carbon emissions from energy systems could peak within a few years based on current policies.
2. A peak in emissions signifies a slowing rate of atmospheric CO2 accumulation but does not halt global warming.
3. To stop further warming and fully address SDG 13, global net emissions must be reduced to zero.

Challenges and Outlook for Meeting Global Climate Targets

Current Policy Shortfalls

Despite progress in renewable energy, a significant gap remains between current policies and the targets required to fulfill the Paris Agreement and SDG 13. The Climate Action Tracker research group provides a stark assessment:

• Based on current global policies, the world is on track for 2.6°C of warming by the end of the century.
• This projection significantly overshoots the internationally agreed-upon targets, indicating that existing commitments are insufficient.

Conclusion: A Critical Juncture for Global Climate Action

The current situation presents a profound dilemma. The unprecedented growth of renewable technologies provides a viable and powerful tool to combat climate change, directly supporting SDG 7 and SDG 13. However, without immediate and substantial strengthening of climate policies to accelerate the phase-out of fossil fuels, the world risks entrenching a high-emissions trajectory that will lead to severe climate impacts. The momentum from technological advancements must be matched by political will to ensure a sustainable and climate-resilient future for all.

Analysis of the Article in Relation to Sustainable Development Goals

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

1. SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

   • The article extensively discusses the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. It highlights the “extraordinary growth in renewable energy,” particularly the “rapid growth of solar power,” which is now meeting increased electricity demand. This directly relates to the goal of ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all.

2. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

   • The article mentions that “35 countries significantly cut their fossil fuel emissions while also growing their economies.” This addresses the concept of decoupling economic growth from environmental degradation, a key aspect of sustainable economic growth.

3. SDG 13: Climate Action

   • This is the central theme of the article. It focuses on the urgency of taking action to combat climate change and its impacts. The text discusses rising CO2 emissions, international climate targets, the UN climate talks (COP30), and the potential consequences of inaction, such as a projected warming of 2.6°C.

4. SDG 15: Life on Land

   • The article touches upon the impact of land use on emissions, stating that “Emissions from changing land-use – such as permanent deforestation – are forecast to be lower than last year.” This connects to the goal of protecting, restoring, and promoting the sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems and halting deforestation.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

   • Target 7.2: By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix. The article’s focus on the “rapid growth of solar power” and how renewables like wind and solar have “more than met” the extra electricity demand directly supports this target.

2. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

   • Target 8.4: Improve progressively, through 2030, global resource efficiency in consumption and production and endeavor to decouple economic growth from environmental degradation. The article provides evidence for this by stating, “over the past 10 years, 35 countries significantly cut their fossil fuel emissions while also growing their economies.”

3. SDG 13: Climate Action

   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning. The article discusses efforts to “fight climate change by cutting emissions” and the need to meet “international targets,” which are outcomes of such integrated policies. The mention of the UN climate talks (COP30) underscores the global effort to strengthen these measures.

4. SDG 15: Life on Land

   • Target 15.2: By 2020, promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation, restore degraded forests and substantially increase afforestation and reforestation globally. The article’s mention of a forecast for lower emissions from “permanent deforestation” implies that progress, or at least a slowdown in degradation, is being monitored in relation to this target.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

1. Indicators for SDG 7 and SDG 13

   • Total CO2 emissions from fossil fuels: The article forecasts this figure to be “38.1bn tonnes of CO2” for the year, providing a direct measure of emissions.
   • Annual growth rate of emissions: The article notes a 1.1% increase in fossil fuel emissions from the previous year but also a slowdown in the decadal growth rate from 1.9% to 0.3% per year.
   • Growth rate of renewable energy sources: The article describes solar power as “growing at a record pace, and faster than any electricity source in history,” which is a qualitative but clear indicator of progress.
   • Share of renewables in new energy capacity: It is stated that “this year’s extra electricity demand has been more than met by wind and, particularly, solar,” indicating that the share of renewables in new capacity is over 100%.

2. Indicator for SDG 8

   • Number of countries decoupling economic growth from environmental impact: The article explicitly states that “35 countries significantly cut their fossil fuel emissions while also growing their economies,” serving as a direct indicator for Target 8.4.

3. Indicator for SDG 13

   • Projected global temperature increase: The Climate Action Tracker’s finding that “warming could reach 2.6C above pre-industrial levels” is a key indicator used to measure the gap between current policies and climate goals.

4. Indicator for SDG 15

   • Emissions from land-use change: The article mentions that “Emissions from changing land-use – such as permanent deforestation – are forecast to be lower than last year.” This serves as an indirect indicator of the rate of deforestation.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: bbc.com