From concentration to dispersion: trends toward counter-urbanization in China from 2000 to 2020 – Nature

Executive Summary

This report analyzes population distribution dynamics and urban development stages at the township level in mainland China from 2000 to 2020. The study’s objective is to provide insights for sustainable urban planning, directly addressing the principles of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities). Key findings indicate that lower-ranked cities are undergoing rapid urbanization despite population declines, while higher-ranked cities exhibit varied patterns of population dispersion. Top-tier cities are achieving a more balanced population distribution, aligning with SDG 10, whereas lower-ranked cities show growing spatial inequality. The analysis reveals that diverse urban development stages—urbanization, suburbanization, and counter-urbanization—are occurring concurrently across China. This highlights the complex challenges and opportunities for creating inclusive, resilient, and sustainable urban environments. The universally applicable methodology introduced offers a valuable tool for analyzing urban growth patterns globally, contributing to a broader understanding of diverse urbanization processes in the context of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Introduction: Urbanization Dynamics and the Sustainable Development Goals

An understanding of urban development patterns is fundamental to designing policies that support Sustainable Development Goal 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities). This report examines China’s unprecedented demographic changes over the past two decades, which have significant global implications for sustainable development. Urban development typically follows a sequence of stages, from urbanization to suburbanization and counter-urbanization. While early industrialized nations have progressed through these stages, emerging economies like China are forging unique trajectories influenced by rapid economic growth and distinct socio-political contexts. These unique paths offer critical insights for achieving global sustainability targets.

The concept of urban form, ranging from concentration to dispersion, is central to this analysis. These forms are intrinsically linked to different stages of urban development and have direct consequences for sustainability.

• Urbanization: Often characterized by a compact city model, favoring density and mixed land use, which can support efficient infrastructure and services (Target 11.3).
• Suburbanization & Counter-urbanization: Involve population shifts from dense urban centers to more dispersed suburban or rural areas. This decentralization presents challenges for sustainable transport (Target 11.2) and equitable access to resources, impacting SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities).

This report analyzes these patterns at a high-resolution township level, overcoming historical data challenges to provide a comprehensive perspective on demographic shifts and their alignment with sustainable development objectives.

Analysis of Population Distribution and Urban Development (2000-2020)

General Population Trends and Density

Analysis of township-level data reveals a highly uneven population distribution that has intensified over time. This concentration has significant implications for resource management and infrastructure planning, central to SDG 11.

1. In 2000, 0.3% of China’s land area housed 17.5% of the population.
2. By 2020, this land share grew to 0.7%, but accommodated over one-third of the total population.
3. Conversely, the population share in low-density areas (

This trend underscores a massive rural-to-urban migration, a key dynamic in achieving balanced regional development as envisioned by the SDGs.

Internal Migration and Regional Disparities

Internal migration is the primary driver of population change in China. The spatial distribution of non-hukou residents (migrants) is highly concentrated in major economic hubs like the Pearl River Delta (PRD) and Yangtze River Delta (YRD). This migration is crucial for SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) but also creates challenges for inclusive urbanization (SDG 11).

• Higher-Ranked Cities (Ranks 1-3): Migrants initially settled in suburban peripheries. By 2020, this settlement expanded further into exurban and rural areas, indicating a trend of dispersion and counter-urbanization. Population density in the urban core of Rank 1 cities declined.
• Lower-Ranked Cities (Ranks 4-6): Migrant populations grew significantly near the urban core, accompanied by rising population densities. This indicates a continuing phase of population concentration.

Spatial Inequality and SDG 10

The evolution of spatial inequality, measured by the Gini coefficient, reveals diverging paths among Chinese cities, directly reflecting progress toward or away from SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities).

• Rank 1 Cities: Exhibited a decline in the Gini coefficient, particularly between 2010 and 2020. This suggests a move toward a more balanced, polycentric urban form, which can reduce inequality by distributing opportunities more evenly.
• Other Ranks (2-6): Experienced significant increases in spatial inequality. This trend, most pronounced in the Northeast, indicates that populations are concentrating in urban cores while peripheral areas decline, potentially exacerbating regional inequalities.

Cities with low Gini coefficients often feature multiple urban centers, whereas those with high coefficients are typically monocentric. This highlights the importance of promoting polycentric development to achieve the goals of SDG 10.

Urban Development Stages and SDG 11

The analysis of population shifts relative to city centers reveals that Chinese cities are simultaneously experiencing different stages of urban development. This diversity requires tailored policy approaches to ensure all cities develop sustainably, in line with SDG 11.

1. Urbanization: Lower-ranked cities (Ranks 4-6) remain in this phase, characterized by population concentration in urban cores. This presents an opportunity to plan for compact, resource-efficient growth.
2. Suburbanization: Mid-ranked cities (Rank 3) show signs of transitioning to this stage, with population dispersing from the core to immediate peripheries. This requires proactive planning for sustainable transport and infrastructure to avoid uncontrolled sprawl.
3. Counter-urbanization: Top-tier cities (Ranks 1-2) are exhibiting trends of counter-urbanization, with population dispersing from dense urban cores toward suburbs, exurbs, and even rural areas. This shift necessitates policies that support rural revitalization and ensure sustainable land use across the urban-rural continuum (Target 11.a).

Discussion: Implications for Sustainable Urban Futures

Concurrent Urban Development Pathways

This report confirms that China’s urban landscape is not following a single, linear path. The simultaneous occurrence of urbanization, suburbanization, and counter-urbanization presents a complex policy challenge. While higher-ranked cities are decentralizing, lower-ranked cities continue to concentrate, leading to a divergence in development trajectories and sustainability challenges.

• Higher-Ranked Cities: The trend toward counter-urbanization and polycentric forms in top-tier cities aligns with goals for creating more livable and balanced urban environments (SDG 11). However, it requires careful management to prevent unsustainable sprawl and ensure equitable access to services in peripheral areas.
• Lower-Ranked Cities: The rapid urbanization combined with overall population decline in these cities highlights a critical issue. While urbanization can drive economic growth (SDG 8), the increasing spatial inequality (SDG 10) suggests that the benefits are not being distributed evenly. Policies must focus on making these cities inclusive and resilient to prevent the formation of urban poverty traps.

Policy Implications and Alignment with SDGs

Government policies, particularly the household registration (*hukou*) system, have profoundly shaped China’s urbanization. Policy-driven efforts to redistribute populations in top-tier cities contrast with the market-driven concentration in smaller cities. To align with the 2030 Agenda, future policies should:

1. Promote Balanced Regional Development (SDG 10, 11): Foster polycentric urban structures in lower-ranked cities to reduce spatial inequality and create more resilient local economies.
2. Strengthen Urban-Rural Linkages (Target 11.a): As counter-urbanization proceeds, policies must support sustainable development in peripheral and rural areas to ensure they benefit from population shifts.
3. Ensure Inclusive Urbanization (SDG 11): Address the challenges faced by migrants in accessing services, regardless of their location within the urban hierarchy, to build truly inclusive cities.

Global Context and Future Research

China’s experience provides valuable lessons for other developing nations, demonstrating that urbanization is not a monolithic process. The methods used in this report offer a universally applicable framework for analyzing urban expansion and its alignment with the SDGs. Future research should investigate the causal mechanisms behind these trends, incorporating socio-economic and policy variables to develop a more comprehensive understanding that can inform evidence-based policymaking for a sustainable urban future worldwide.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

The article directly addresses inequality, specifically “spatial inequality,” which is a central theme. It analyzes how population distribution has become more or less equal across different cities and regions in China. The study uses the Gini coefficient, a standard measure of inequality, to assess the concentration and dispersion of populations within cities. The discussion on the disparities between higher-ranked and lower-ranked cities, as well as the regional variations in population growth and decline, are all directly related to reducing inequalities within a country.

SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

This is the most prominent SDG in the article. The entire study is framed around understanding urban dynamics for “sustainable urban planning.” It examines various stages of urban development (urbanization, suburbanization, counter-urbanization), population density, urban sprawl (dispersion), and the changing spatial structure of cities. The goal is to provide insights that can help in creating more balanced, inclusive, and sustainable urban environments. The analysis of population shifts relative to city centers and the formation of polycentric urban forms are key topics for sustainable city management.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

1. Target 10.2: By 2030, empower and promote the social, economic and political inclusion of all, irrespective of age, sex, disability, race, ethnicity, origin, religion or economic or other status.

   The article’s focus on “non-hukou residents” (migrants without local household registration) connects directly to this target. It analyzes the settlement patterns of this significant migrant population, highlighting how they are often concentrated in peripheral or suburban areas. The hukou system itself is a major factor in social and economic inclusion, and the article’s analysis of this group’s spatial distribution provides insight into the challenges of their integration into urban life.

SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

1. Target 11.3: By 2030, enhance inclusive and sustainable urbanization and capacity for participatory, integrated and sustainable human settlement planning and management in all countries.

   This target is at the core of the article. The study’s stated purpose is to understand “dynamics of population distribution and stages of urban development… for sustainable urban planning.” It analyzes urbanization trends, population concentration versus dispersion, and the evolution of urban forms across different city ranks. For instance, it notes that “Top-tier cities are achieving a more balanced population distribution,” while “lower-ranked cities remain in the urbanization phase with concentrated populations.” This analysis directly informs sustainable human settlement planning.

2. Target 11.a: Support positive economic, social and environmental links between urban, peri-urban and rural areas by strengthening national and regional development planning.

   The article’s discussion of suburbanization and counter-urbanization explicitly deals with the links between urban, peri-urban, and rural areas. It describes counter-urbanization as a “population shift from densely populated urban centers to more dispersed suburban or rural areas.” The analysis of population growth in the outer rings of cities and the depopulation in the peripheries of lower-ranked cities highlights the dynamic relationship and population flows between these different zones, which is crucial for effective regional development planning.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Indicators for SDG 10 Targets

• Gini Coefficient of Population Distribution: The article explicitly uses the Gini coefficient to measure “spatial inequality.” It states, “Changes in Gini coefficients indicate varying levels of spatial dispersion or concentration across cities.” This serves as a direct quantitative indicator for tracking inequality in population distribution within cities.
• Percentage of Non-hukou Residents: The study tracks the proportion of migrants without local household registration over time, noting that the “average proportion of non-hukou migrants in all towns was 9%, 14%, and 22% in the three respective census years.” This percentage acts as an indicator of the scale of internal migration and the population segment facing potential inclusion challenges.

Indicators for SDG 11 Targets

• Population Density: The article extensively uses population density (people/km²) to analyze urban concentration. It categorizes land into super-dense, high-density, and low-density areas and tracks the proportion of the population living in each. For example, it finds that by 2020, “high-density areas (3000-10,000 people/km²) covered just 0.6% of land but accommodated 19.5% of the population.” This is a key indicator for monitoring urban land use efficiency and sprawl.
• Rate of Urbanization: The study measures and compares urbanization levels across different city ranks and regions over two decades. It notes that “lower-ranked cities experience increased urbanization without population growth,” providing a nuanced indicator of urban development patterns.
• Radial Population Distribution and Growth: The article introduces a method to measure population distribution and growth rates in concentric rings at various distances from the city center. For example, it finds that in top-tier cities, “peak growth areas shifted farther outward” over time. This method provides a detailed indicator of urban spatial structure, helping to quantify trends like suburbanization and counter-urbanization.

4. Create a table with three columns titled ‘SDGs, Targets and Indicators” to present the findings from analyzing the article. In this table, list the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), their corresponding targets, and the specific indicators identified in the article.

Source: nature.com