Report on South Africa’s Q2 2025 Economic Performance in the Context of Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary

South Africa’s economy demonstrated significant progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) with a 0.8% expansion in the second quarter of 2025, the most rapid growth recorded in two years. This performance, exceeding median forecasts, was primarily driven by a strong rebound in the manufacturing and mining sectors, directly contributing to SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure). While economic projections have been positively revised, significant external challenges threaten this momentum, particularly in relation to SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals), due to the imposition of US tariffs. This report analyzes these developments and their implications for South Africa’s sustainable development trajectory.

Detailed Economic Growth Analysis (SDG 8)

The nation’s economic performance in Q2 2025 marks a positive step in promoting the sustained, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth targeted by SDG 8.

• Quarterly GDP Growth: The economy grew by 0.8% in the three months to June, compared to the previous quarter.
• Exceeding Expectations: This figure surpassed the 0.6% median estimate from a Bloomberg survey of 13 economists.
• Pace of Growth: The expansion represents the fastest pace of economic growth for the country in two years.

Sectoral Performance and Contribution to SDG 9

The revitalization of key industrial sectors is fundamental to achieving the goals of building resilient infrastructure, promoting inclusive and sustainable industrialization, and fostering innovation as outlined in SDG 9. The rebound was led by manufacturing and mining.

Industry growth rates for Q2 2025 were recorded as follows:

1. Manufacturing: 2.5%
2. Mining: 1.9%
3. Finance: 0.7%
4. Trade: 0.6%
5. Transport: 0.5%
6. Personal Services: 0.5%
7. Government: 0.2%
8. Construction: -0.2%
9. Agriculture: -0.5%
10. Utilities: -1.2%

Economic Outlook and Projections

Positive short-term forecasts suggest potential for continued progress towards national development targets, including SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities), provided that growth is inclusive.

• Goldman Sachs: The firm raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast for South Africa from 1.0% to 1.2%, citing the “upside surprise” in Q2 performance.
• Capital Economics: The institution projects further modest GDP growth in the coming quarters, anticipating support from lower interest rates and the easing of structural constraints.

External Challenges and Implications for SDG 17

Progress towards sustainable development is threatened by challenges to global trade partnerships, a key component of SDG 17. The stability of the global trading system is crucial for South Africa’s economic health.

• Trade Tariffs: The United States has imposed a 30% tariff on South African goods, the highest rate applied in sub-Saharan Africa.
• Economic Impact: This trade barrier is expected to negatively affect South Africa’s economic performance from the third quarter of 2025 onwards.
• Diplomatic Response: In an effort to strengthen partnerships and resolve the trade dispute, President Cyril Ramaphosa confirmed that officials have been dispatched to the United States to engage in a new round of trade negotiations.

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article on South Africa’s economy touches upon several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to economic performance, industrial activity, and international trade relations.

• SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

  This goal is central to the article, which focuses on South Africa’s economic growth. The text explicitly discusses the GDP growth rate (“grew 0.8% in the three months to June”), forecasts (“Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast for South Africa to 1.2%”), and the performance of key economic sectors like manufacturing and mining. These are all core components of achieving sustained and inclusive economic growth.

• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure

  The article directly connects to this SDG by highlighting the role of specific industries in driving economic performance. The text states that the growth was “driven by a rebound in the manufacturing and mining sectors.” This emphasis on industrial sectors as a foundation for economic growth aligns with the goal of building resilient infrastructure and fostering sustainable industrialization.

• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

  This goal is addressed in the context of international trade and economic partnerships. The article discusses the challenge posed by “Washington’s imposition of a 30% tariff on South African goods” and the subsequent diplomatic efforts, noting that Pretoria has “sent officials to the US to prepare for a fresh round of trade negotiations.” This highlights the importance of global partnerships and fair trade policies for achieving sustainable development.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the issues discussed, several specific targets under the identified SDGs are relevant.

• SDG Target 8.1: Sustain per capita economic growth

  This target aims to sustain economic growth in accordance with national circumstances. The article is entirely focused on this, reporting on the quarterly GDP growth (“grew 0.8%”), comparing it to estimates, and providing future forecasts (“We expect further modest GDP growth over the coming quarters”).

• SDG Target 9.2: Promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization

  This target focuses on significantly raising industry’s share of GDP. The article’s emphasis on the “rebound in the manufacturing and mining sectors” as the primary drivers of the overall economic growth directly relates to the performance and importance of industrialization in the country’s economy.

• SDG Target 17.10: Promote a universal, rules-based, open, non-discriminatory and equitable multilateral trading system

  This target is relevant to the trade dispute mentioned in the article. The “imposition of a 30% tariff on South African goods” by the US is a barrier to an open and equitable trading system. South Africa’s attempt to engage in “a fresh round of trade negotiations” is an effort to address this issue and work towards a more favorable trade environment.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

The article contains specific data points and references that can be used as indicators to measure progress towards the identified targets.

• Indicator 8.1.1: Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita

  The article provides direct quantitative data for this indicator. It states that the economy “grew 0.8% in the three months to June” and mentions a revised annual forecast of “1.2%”. These figures are direct measures of economic growth.

• Indicator 9.2.1: Manufacturing value added as a proportion of GDP and per capita

  While the article does not provide a specific percentage for this indicator, it strongly implies its importance and measurement. The statement that growth was “driven by a rebound in the manufacturing and mining sectors” and the inclusion of a chart showing “South Africa’s industry growth rates” confirm that the performance of the industrial sector is being tracked as a key component of GDP.

• Indicator 17.10.1: Worldwide weighted tariff-average

  This indicator is directly addressed through the mention of a specific trade barrier. The article explicitly states the “imposition of a 30% tariff on South African goods,” which is a quantifiable measure of a trade restriction and serves as a direct data point for monitoring trade policy and its impact.

4. Create a table with three columns titled ‘SDGs, Targets and Indicators” to present the findings from analyzing the article.

Source: semafor.com