The impact of high standard farmland construction on China’s agricultural resilience – Nature

Executive Summary

A comprehensive analysis of China’s High-Standard Farmland Construction (HSFC) initiative reveals its significant positive impact on agricultural resilience (AR), a critical component for achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This report, based on panel data from 28 provinces (2011–2022) and employing fixed-effects and mediation models, establishes that HSFC is a crucial strategy for strengthening food systems. The findings indicate that HSFC enhances AR primarily by boosting labor productivity and increasing farmers’ incomes, directly contributing to SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 1 (No Poverty), and SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth). However, the initiative also accelerates rural urbanization, leading to population outflow that can undermine resilience gains, presenting a challenge for SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities). The effects are most pronounced in major grain-producing and northeastern regions, highlighting the need for targeted policies to ensure equitable and sustainable rural development across the nation.

Introduction: Agricultural Resilience and the Sustainable Development Goals

The Imperative for Agricultural Resilience in the Context of Global Challenges

Global food systems face unprecedented threats from climate change, extreme weather events, and geopolitical instability. In this context, agricultural resilience—the capacity of agricultural systems to withstand and recover from external shocks—is paramount for global food security. Enhancing AR is a direct action towards achieving SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 13 (Climate Action), as resilient agricultural practices are essential for adapting to climate-related risks and ensuring a stable food supply for a growing global population.

High-Standard Farmland Construction (HSFC) as a Strategy for Sustainable Development

High-Standard Farmland Construction (HSFC) is a cornerstone of China’s strategy to modernize its agricultural sector. It involves the systematic upgrading of farmland with modern infrastructure, including irrigation, drainage, and rural road networks. This initiative serves as a powerful tool for advancing several SDGs:

• SDG 2 (Zero Hunger): By improving land quality and productivity, HSFC directly enhances national food security and promotes sustainable agriculture.
• SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure): HSFC represents a significant investment in building resilient and sustainable rural infrastructure, which is fundamental for agroeconomic growth.
• SDG 1 (No Poverty): Through its role in boosting rural economies and farmer incomes, HSFC contributes to poverty alleviation in agricultural communities.

Analytical Framework and Methodology

The DPSIR Framework for Measuring Agricultural Resilience

To systematically measure AR, this report utilizes the Drivers-Pressures-State-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) framework. This model provides a comprehensive structure for analyzing the complex interactions between human activities and environmental systems. It is particularly well-suited for evaluating progress towards sustainable development by identifying the causal chains that link socioeconomic drivers to environmental impacts and policy responses. An index system comprising 33 indicators was developed under this framework to provide a robust measure of AR.

Data and Econometric Models

The analysis is based on panel data from 28 Chinese provinces covering the period from 2011 to 2022. The impact of HSFC on AR was assessed using the following econometric models:

1. Fixed-Effects Model: To determine the direct causal relationship between HSFC and AR while controlling for time-invariant provincial characteristics.
2. Mediation Model: To investigate the indirect pathways through which HSFC affects AR, specifically examining the roles of labor productivity, farmer income, and urbanization.

Key Findings: The Impact of HSFC on Agricultural Resilience

Direct Effects and Contribution to SDG 2 (Zero Hunger)

The analysis confirms a statistically significant and positive relationship between HSFC and agricultural resilience. By improving the quality and infrastructure of farmland, HSFC creates a more stable and productive agricultural base capable of withstanding external shocks. This direct enhancement of AR is a fundamental contribution to achieving SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), as it strengthens the capacity for sustainable food production and improves food supply stability.

Regional Heterogeneity in HSFC Effectiveness

The impact of HSFC on AR varies significantly across different regions of China, which has implications for SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities).

• Major Grain-Producing and Northeastern Regions: The positive effects of HSFC are strongest in these areas, which benefit from favorable agricultural conditions and policy focus.
• Western Region: A weaker but still positive effect is observed, constrained by geographical challenges and labor outflows.
• Eastern and Non-Major Grain-Producing Regions: The effect is statistically insignificant, likely due to the dominance of industrial and service sectors over agriculture.

These findings underscore the need for regionally tailored HSFC strategies to ensure that investments in agricultural infrastructure promote balanced and equitable development.

Mediating Mechanisms and Broader SDG Implications

Productivity, Income, and Urbanization Pathways

The mediation analysis reveals three primary channels through which HSFC influences AR:

• Boosting agricultural labor productivity.
• Increasing the disposable income of rural residents.
• Accelerating the rate of population urbanization.

Positive Contributions to Multiple SDGs

The mediating effects of HSFC align with several key sustainable development objectives:

• SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth): By enhancing labor productivity, HSFC promotes efficient and productive employment in the agricultural sector.
• SDG 1 (No Poverty): The increase in farmers’ incomes is the most significant driver of enhanced AR, directly contributing to poverty reduction in rural areas.

Challenges Related to Urbanization and SDG 11 (Sustainable Communities)

While HSFC improves agricultural efficiency, it also contributes to the release of rural labor, accelerating urbanization. This population outflow can negatively impact AR by reducing the available agricultural workforce and weakening the capacity of rural communities to respond to crises. This dynamic presents a significant challenge for achieving SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), highlighting the critical need for policies that foster balanced rural-urban development and prevent the hollowing out of rural areas.

Discussion and Policy Recommendations for Sustainable Agricultural Management

Synthesizing the Findings

The evidence demonstrates that HSFC is a powerful driver of agricultural resilience and contributes positively to key SDGs related to hunger, poverty, and economic growth. However, its unintended consequence of accelerating rural depopulation poses a threat to the long-term sustainability of these gains. Therefore, policy interventions must adopt an integrated approach that capitalizes on the benefits of HSFC while mitigating its adverse social effects.

Policy Recommendations Aligned with the SDGs

1. Strengthen HSFC Investment for Resilient Infrastructure: Continue to invest in HSFC to enhance land quality and infrastructure, reinforcing the foundation for SDG 2 and SDG 9. Policies should be tailored to regional needs to maximize impact and promote equitable development in line with SDG 10.
2. Reform Agricultural Subsidies to Prioritize Income Security: Shift from production-based subsidies to a model that integrates income protection and risk management. This will more effectively boost farmers’ incomes, directly supporting SDG 1 and incentivizing the rural population to remain in agriculture.
3. Invest in Rural Human Capital: Integrate farmer training and education programs into HSFC initiatives to build a skilled agricultural workforce. This focus on human capital accumulation supports SDG 4 (Quality Education) and SDG 8 by preparing farmers for modern, sustainable agriculture.
4. Promote Integrated Rural Revitalization: Design targeted strategies to counteract rural depopulation. This includes promoting rural entrepreneurship, securing land rights for active farmers, and fostering collaboration between local governments and agricultural cooperatives to ensure the vitality of rural communities, thereby advancing SDG 11.

Conclusion

High-Standard Farmland Construction is a vital policy for enhancing China’s agricultural resilience and advancing its commitment to the Sustainable Development Goals. By improving labor productivity and, most importantly, increasing farmer incomes, HSFC directly supports the achievement of SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 2 (Zero Hunger). However, to ensure these achievements are sustainable, policymakers must address the associated challenge of rural-urban migration. Future policies should integrate HSFC with comprehensive rural development strategies that build human capital and create vibrant rural economies. Such an approach will be crucial for ensuring that investments in agricultural infrastructure translate into long-term, resilient, and sustainable prosperity for all.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 1: No Poverty

  The article directly connects High-Standard Farmland Construction (HSFC) to poverty alleviation. It states that HSFC is an “important tool for agricultural governance” that “contributes to poverty alleviation and rural economic development.” It also cites a study highlighting that HSFC can “markedly decrease rural poverty by 7.4%,” linking infrastructure development directly to poverty reduction in rural areas.

• SDG 2: Zero Hunger

  This is a central theme. The article frames HSFC as a “crucial strategy” for “enhancing national food security” and “promoting grain production.” The concept of Agricultural Resilience (AR) is introduced as key to maintaining a stable food supply against shocks like climate change. The entire study revolves around improving agricultural systems to ensure food availability and sustainability.

• SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

  The article discusses how HSFC promotes “agroeconomic growth” and improves “labor productivity.” By enhancing agricultural efficiency, HSFC allows for the “reallocation [of labor] to non-farming sectors,” which supports broader economic development and diversification. The focus on increasing farmers’ incomes also contributes to sustained and inclusive economic growth in rural communities.

• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

  HSFC is explicitly defined as the development of “a modern agricultural infrastructure network—including irrigation systems, drainage facilities, and rural road networks.” This directly addresses the goal of building resilient and sustainable infrastructure. The article analyzes how this specific type of infrastructure investment drives agricultural productivity and resilience.

• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

  The article explores the complex relationship between rural development and urbanization. It notes that while HSFC improves rural conditions, it may also “accelerate rural urbanization” and contribute to “population outflow.” This analysis touches upon the need to manage rural-urban linkages and promote “rural revitalization” to ensure the sustainability of both rural and urban areas.

• SDG 13: Climate Action

  The article’s introduction establishes the context of “Climate change, extreme weather events, and geopolitical instability” as major threats to global food systems. Agricultural resilience is presented as a key adaptive strategy to mitigate the impacts of these climate-related risks, such as droughts and floods, thereby strengthening the capacity of agricultural systems to cope with climate change.

• SDG 15: Life on Land

  The article discusses how HSFC involves activities like “land development, soil enhancement… and the preservation of farmland and ecological systems.” By upgrading farmland quality and mitigating land degradation, these efforts contribute to the sustainable management of terrestrial ecosystems and aim to improve the quality of agricultural land, which is a key component of this goal.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. SDG 1: No Poverty

   • Target 1.2: By 2030, reduce at least by half the proportion of men, women and children of all ages living in poverty in all its dimensions according to national definitions. The article’s mention of HSFC’s role in “poverty alleviation” and its potential to “markedly decrease rural poverty” directly aligns with this target.
   • Target 1.5: By 2030, build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events and other economic, social and environmental shocks and disasters. The article’s core focus on enhancing “agricultural resilience (AR)” to help farmers “better handle adversities” and recover from external shocks directly supports this target.

2. SDG 2: Zero Hunger

   • Target 2.1: By 2030, end hunger and ensure access by all people, in particular the poor and people in vulnerable situations, including infants, to safe, nutritious and sufficient food all year round. The article’s emphasis on HSFC as a foundation for “enhancing national food security” and ensuring a “stable and sustainable food supply” is directly related to this target.
   • Target 2.3: By 2030, double the agricultural productivity and incomes of small-scale food producers. The study finds that HSFC improves AR “mainly by boosting labor productivity and increasing farmers’ incomes,” which is the central aim of this target.
   • Target 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters and that progressively improve land and soil quality. This target is fully encapsulated by the article’s focus on building “agricultural resilience,” promoting “sustainable agricultural management,” and improving farmland through “soil enhancement” and better infrastructure.

3. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

   • Target 8.2: Achieve higher levels of economic productivity through diversification, technological upgrading and innovation, including through a focus on high-value added and labour-intensive sectors. The article’s finding that HSFC “boosts labor productivity” and supports “agricultural mechanization and modernization” aligns with achieving higher productivity through infrastructure and technology.

4. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

   • Target 9.1: Develop quality, reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructure, including regional and transborder infrastructure, to support economic development and human well-being, with a focus on affordable and equitable access for all. The definition and analysis of HSFC as an investment in “irrigation systems, drainage facilities, and rural road networks” to strengthen agriculture is a direct example of implementing this target in a rural context.

5. SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

   • Target 11.a: Support positive economic, social and environmental links between urban, peri-urban and rural areas by strengthening national and regional development planning. The article’s discussion of the “contradiction between agricultural development and urbanisation” and the need to balance rural revitalization with rural-urban migration directly relates to the planning of rural-urban linkages.

6. SDG 13: Climate Action

   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries. The article explicitly frames “agricultural resilience” as a response to threats from “climate change, extreme weather events,” and mentions that HSFC helps mitigate “yield loss due to droughts and floods.”

7. SDG 15: Life on Land

   • Target 15.3: By 2030, combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil, including land affected by desertification, drought and floods, and strive to achieve a land degradation-neutral world. The article’s description of HSFC as a process involving “land improvement, soil enhancement,” and addressing the “poor quality of agricultural land” directly contributes to this target of restoring and improving land quality.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Yes, the article mentions or implies several specific indicators that can be used for measurement:

1. For SDG 1 (No Poverty)

   • Indicator for Target 1.2: The article explicitly mentions “rural poverty” rates, citing a study that HSFC can decrease it by 7.4%. It also uses “per capita disposable income of rural households (LN_RRI)” as a key variable, which serves as a direct measure of economic well-being and poverty levels.

2. For SDG 2 (Zero Hunger)

   • Indicator for Target 2.3: The article defines and uses “labor productivity (LP)” as a mediating variable, calculated as “the gross output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery per primary-sector worker.” This is a direct indicator of agricultural productivity. “Farmers’ incomes” is also a central variable.
   • Indicator for Target 2.4: The primary dependent variable of the study, “Agricultural Resilience (AR),” is measured through a comprehensive index system with 33 indexes. This composite index is a direct measure of the resilience of agricultural systems. Additionally, “grain yield” and “grain production” are mentioned as outcomes of HSFC, serving as indicators of production levels.

3. For SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth)

   • Indicator for Target 8.2: “Labor productivity (LP)” is the key indicator mentioned in the article for measuring progress in economic productivity within the agricultural sector.

4. For SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure)

   • Indicator for Target 9.1: The core explanatory variable, “the area of HSFC,” serves as a direct quantitative indicator of the extent of agricultural infrastructure development.

5. For SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities)

   • Indicator for Target 11.a: The article defines and uses “population urbanization (PU)” as a mediating variable, measured as “the ratio of urban to total permanent residents.” This indicator directly measures the demographic shift between rural and urban areas.

6. For SDG 13 (Climate Action)

   • Indicator for Target 13.1: The “Agricultural Resilience (AR)” index itself serves as an indicator of adaptive capacity. The article also implies measuring resilience through the mitigation of “yield loss due to droughts and floods,” suggesting that yield stability under extreme weather is a key performance indicator.

7. For SDG 15 (Life on Land)

   • Indicator for Target 15.3: While not a formal quantitative indicator in the study’s model, the article refers to improvements in “cropland quality,” “soil’s fertility,” and “productive depth” as direct outcomes of HSFC, which can be measured to track progress on land restoration.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: nature.com