The Lake Chad Basin could power growth instead of conflict – Atlantic Council

Report on Security, Governance, and Sustainable Development in the Lake Chad Basin

Introduction: A Crisis of Peace and Development

The Lake Chad Basin, encompassing Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic, is experiencing an intensification of insecurity that poses a significant threat to regional stability and the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Renewed offensives by Boko Haram and affiliated factions undermine progress towards SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions) and prevent the region’s natural wealth from fostering inclusive growth, as envisioned by SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) and SDG 1 (No Poverty).

Escalating Insecurity and its Humanitarian Consequences

Recent Violent Incidents (2024-2025)

• June 2024, Nigeria: Coordinated suicide attacks in Borno State resulted in over 30 fatalities and more than 100 injuries.
• October 2024, Chad: Militants overran a military garrison, killing more than 40 soldiers and demonstrating significant cross-border operational capacity.
• 2025, Nigeria: A series of bombings using improvised explosive devices targeted civilian areas in Borno, including attacks on markets that claimed over 22 lives. Insurgent tactics have reportedly evolved to include armed drones and roadside mines.

Humanitarian Impact and Setbacks to SDGs

The conflict has led to a severe humanitarian crisis, directly impeding progress on core SDGs. Fatalities linked to militant groups are near record highs, with nearly 4,000 deaths recorded over the past year. As of May 2025, over 2.9 million people remain displaced across the basin. This widespread displacement and violence severely compromises SDG 1 (No Poverty) by destroying livelihoods and exacerbates health crises, undermining SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being).

Analysis of Regional Responses and Institutional Fragility

Coordinated Security and Stabilization Efforts

Regional governments have acknowledged that military force alone is insufficient. Efforts are being made to align security operations with development strategies, reflecting an integrated approach to SDG 16.

• The Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) has executed intelligence-driven operations, such as Operation Lake Sanity II in 2024, which successfully dismantled insurgent camps.
• The Lake Chad Basin Commission’s Regional Stabilization Strategy, supported by the UNDP-managed Regional Stabilization Facility, aims to fund rapid rehabilitation in liberated areas, restoring essential services and infrastructure.

Challenges to Regional Cooperation (SDG 17)

The security architecture remains fragile. Niger’s announced withdrawal from the MNJTF in April 2025 highlights how national political and economic priorities can disrupt cross-border cooperation. This fragility threatens the effectiveness of collective action and undermines the principles of SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals), which is crucial for addressing transnational threats.

The Resource Paradox: A Failure in Governance and Economic Justice

Abundant Natural Resources vs. Underdevelopment

The Lake Chad Basin countries possess significant natural resources, representing a major opportunity for achieving SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth). However, this potential remains largely untapped for public benefit.

• Nigeria: Holds Africa’s largest natural gas reserves and is a major oil producer.
• Cameroon: Pursuing upstream and downstream oil and gas activities.
• Niger: A key exporter of high-grade uranium and oil via a regional pipeline.
• Chad: Reliant on the Chad-Cameroon export system for its oil revenue.

Governance Deficits as a Root Cause of Conflict

The failure to translate resource wealth into shared prosperity is a primary driver of instability, directly linked to weaknesses in SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions). All four nations score poorly on Transparency International’s index for accountable governance. Corruption, opaque contracting, and the exclusion of local communities from economic benefits squander revenue and fuel insurgent narratives. This systemic failure perpetuates poverty and deepens inequality, working against SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities).

Recommendations for Achieving Sustainable Peace

A Governance-First Approach to Stabilization

To break the cycle of violence, military gains must be consolidated through transparent governance and inclusive development. A comprehensive strategy should include:

1. Linking Security with Development: Stabilization efforts must immediately follow security operations to repair infrastructure, restore public services, and support local livelihoods. This approach builds trust and directly contributes to SDG 1, SDG 8, and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities).
2. Ensuring Transparent Resource Management: Resource development must adhere to principles of transparency and accountability. Adopting frameworks like the Africa Mining Vision would ensure open contracts, equitable revenue sharing for local development, and genuine job creation for communities, reinforcing SDG 16.
3. Strengthening International Partnerships (SDG 17): Foreign partners must structure investments to include technology transfer, the development of local supply chains, and co-financing of community assets. Such partnerships transform resource extraction into a vehicle for sustainable development.

Conclusion: Building Trust to Unlock the SDGs

The ultimate path to stabilizing the Lake Chad Basin lies in building trust between the state and its citizens. This can only be achieved through a political commitment to transparent governance, accountable institutions, and equitable economic partnerships. By tackling the root causes of the conflict—namely governance failures and economic exclusion—regional leaders can transform the basin’s natural wealth into durable security and prosperity. This strategy not only serves as an effective counterinsurgency model but also provides a clear roadmap for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, turning a region of crisis into one of opportunity.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

   The article highlights issues directly connected to several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), primarily focusing on peace, justice, economic growth, and institutional strength. The most relevant SDGs are:

   • SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions: This is the most central SDG. The article is almost entirely focused on the “hotspot of insecurity” in the Lake Chad Basin, detailing violence, conflict, fatalities, and the failure of governance. It discusses military operations, the need for accountable security forces, and the pervasive impact of corruption and lack of transparency, which are core themes of SDG 16.
   • SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth: The article presents an “economic paradox” where the region’s vast natural resource wealth (oil, gas, uranium) does not translate into “shared prosperity” or opportunity for the local population. It explicitly calls for “genuine job creation” and building “local supply chains” to counter militant recruitment, directly linking economic opportunity to stability.
   • SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure: The article discusses the state of infrastructure, including the need to repair it as part of stabilization efforts. It mentions pipelines, oil refining, and gas-to-power investments. The text suggests that revenues from resource extraction should be used for “local clinics and roads,” highlighting the need to develop resilient infrastructure to support communities and economic development.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

   Based on the article’s detailed discussion, several specific SDG targets can be identified:

   • SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

     • Target 16.1: Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere. The article directly addresses this by citing fatality statistics, such as “nearly four thousand deaths over the past year,” and describing numerous violent events like suicide attacks, bombings, and militants overrunning a garrison.
     • Target 16.5: Substantially reduce corruption and bribery in all their forms. The article explicitly states that “governance is failing” and points to corruption as a key driver of insecurity. It references the “Transparency International index scores” for the regional countries and mentions “opaque contracting” and how “corruption and predation squander revenue.”
     • Target 16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions at all levels. This target is a central theme. The article criticizes the lack of “accountable public spending” and calls for a “governance-first approach” with “transparent contracts” and “open contracts” to build public trust and confidence.

   • SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

     • Target 8.1: Sustain per capita economic growth. The article highlights the failure to achieve this, describing how the region’s natural wealth has been hindered from being “transformed into opportunity or legitimacy,” thus preventing sustainable economic growth for the population.
     • Target 8.5: Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all. The article implies a lack of decent work, which fuels militant recruitment. It proposes a solution where resource development leads to “genuine job creation” and jobs are “allocated to qualified locals.”

   • SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure

     • Target 9.1: Develop quality, reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructure. The article points to the need for this by advocating for “repairing infrastructure” and “restoring services” in liberated areas. It also suggests that resource revenues should be used for “shared revenues for local infrastructure,” specifically mentioning funding for “local clinics and roads.”

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

   Yes, the article mentions or implies several indicators that can be used to measure progress:

   • Indicators for SDG 16

     • Conflict-related deaths (Indicator 16.1.2): The article provides explicit data points that serve as a baseline for this indicator, such as “nearly four thousand deaths over the past year” from militant violence, and specific numbers from attacks (e.g., “more than thirty people” killed, “more than forty soldiers” killed). A reduction in these numbers would indicate progress.
     • Prevalence of corruption (related to Indicator 16.5.2): The article directly references the “latest Transparency International index scores” for Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, and Niger, which is a direct measure of perceived public sector corruption. Improvement in these scores would be a clear indicator of progress.
     • Public trust in institutions (related to Indicator 16.6.2): While not providing a direct metric, the article heavily implies this is a key indicator. It states that governance failures have “eroded… public confidence” and that stabilization is “fundamentally about trust.” Progress could be measured by tracking public trust in government and security forces.

   • Indicators for SDG 8

     • Unemployment rates (related to Indicator 8.5.2): The article implies high unemployment is a driver of conflict by stating that providing “jobs… to qualified locals” is a way to ensure “militants lose their recruiting fuel.” Tracking local employment rates, especially in resource-rich areas, would be a relevant indicator.

   • Indicators for SDG 9

     • Investment in and development of local infrastructure (related to Target 9.1): The article suggests measuring progress by tracking whether resource revenues are used to “fund local clinics and roads.” The number of new or repaired infrastructure projects (schools, health facilities, roads) in conflict-affected communities would serve as a direct indicator.

4. Create a table with three columns titled ‘SDGs, Targets and Indicators” to present the findings from analyzing the article.

   SDGs	Targets	Indicators Identified in the Article
   SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions	16.1: Reduce all forms of violence and related death rates. 16.5: Substantially reduce corruption and bribery. 16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions.	Number of conflict-related deaths per year (e.g., “nearly four thousand deaths over the past year”). Transparency International Corruption Perception Index scores for regional countries. Level of public trust and confidence in state institutions.
   SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth	8.1: Sustain per capita economic growth. 8.5: Achieve full and productive employment and decent work.	Rate of “genuine job creation” for local populations in resource-extraction industries. Extent to which natural resource wealth translates into “shared prosperity.”
   SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure	9.1: Develop quality, reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructure.	Amount of revenue from resource deals reinvested into “local clinics and roads.” Number of infrastructure projects repaired or restored in liberated areas.

Source: atlanticcouncil.org