The Southern Ocean is holding in a ‘burp’ – The Week

Report on Latent Oceanic Heat Release and its Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

Introduction: A Long-Term Climate Threat to SDG 13 (Climate Action)

A study published in the journal AGU Advances identifies a significant long-term threat to global climate stability, directly impacting the objectives of SDG 13 (Climate Action). Research indicates that the Southern Ocean is accumulating substantial amounts of heat due to anthropogenic global warming. This stored thermal energy could be released into the atmosphere in a phenomenon described as an “ocean burp.” This event is projected to occur centuries after humanity achieves net-negative greenhouse gas emissions, demonstrating that the consequences of current emissions will persist long into the future and complicate long-term climate action strategies.

Mechanism and Impact on SDG 14 (Life Below Water)

The ocean’s role as a primary carbon and heat sink is central to this phenomenon, with profound implications for SDG 14 (Life Below Water). The trapping of heat in the deep Southern Ocean is attributed to several processes that alter marine environments:

• Deep Convection: Heat accumulated under global warming is driven into the deep ocean, where it is sequestered.
• Suppressed Heat Release: The ocean’s natural pathways for releasing heat are becoming less active, effectively trapping thermal energy.
• Reduced Albedo: The melting of sea ice, which historically reflected solar radiation, has increased the ocean’s capacity to absorb heat.

These combined effects not only set the stage for a future warming rebound but also fundamentally alter the thermal structure of the ocean, posing a severe risk to marine ecosystems and the sustainable use of marine resources as outlined in SDG 14.

Projected Consequences and Disproportionate Impacts (SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities)

The eventual release of this stored heat would trigger a renewed period of significant global warming. The characteristics of this warming event underscore the challenge to achieving SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities), as its impacts will not be evenly distributed.

1. Magnitude: The resulting warming is projected to be comparable in rate to average historical anthropogenic warming.
2. Duration: The warming period is expected to last from decades to a century.
3. Geographic Disparity: The effects are forecast to be greatest and most prolonged in the Southern Hemisphere, disproportionately affecting the more vulnerable nations of the Global South.

This finding highlights a critical climate justice issue, where nations least responsible for historical emissions will bear the brunt of this delayed climatic impact, exacerbating global inequalities.

Urgent Call for Action: The Imperative for SDG 7 and SDG 17

The study’s projections are based on a future scenario where net-negative emissions are eventually achieved. However, the report serves as a stark warning about the severe, multi-generational consequences of delaying the transition away from fossil fuels. The longer emissions continue, the more heat becomes trapped in the ocean, increasing the magnitude of the eventual release. This reinforces the urgent need to accelerate efforts toward:

• SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy): A rapid and complete transition to renewable energy sources is critical to minimize the amount of heat being sequestered in the ocean.
• SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals): The global and long-term nature of this threat necessitates international cooperation to reduce emissions and mitigate future risks, ensuring a sustainable future for all.

Ultimately, the research demonstrates that achieving a “green revolution” is not only about addressing present climate change but also about preventing latent climatic threats from jeopardizing the well-being of future generations.

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

SDG 13: Climate Action

• The article’s central theme is the long-term consequences of anthropogenic climate change, specifically how heat trapped by greenhouse gas emissions in the Southern Ocean can lead to future warming events. It directly discusses the need to stop emissions and the lasting impacts of burning fossil fuels, which are core concerns of SDG 13.

SDG 14: Life Below Water

• The article focuses on the Southern Ocean’s role as a heat and carbon sink. The process of deep convection, heat absorption, and changes in sea ice cover are significant alterations to the marine environment. These changes directly impact marine ecosystems, which is a key focus of SDG 14.

SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

• The article implicitly addresses SDG 7 by identifying the root cause of the problem as “burning fossil fuels with reckless abandon.” It contrasts this with the “green revolution” and the goal of becoming “carbon negative,” which necessitates a global shift towards clean and renewable energy sources.

SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

• The article connects to this goal by highlighting the disproportionate impact of climate change on vulnerable populations. It states that the effects of the released ocean heat would be “greatest and longest-lasting in the Southern Hemisphere, suggesting a greater impact on today’s more vulnerable countries of the global south,” which relates to building resilient communities and protecting the vulnerable from climate-related hazards.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

SDG 13: Climate Action

• Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries. The article points to this target by mentioning that the future warming effects would have a “greater impact on today’s more vulnerable countries of the global south,” highlighting the need for these nations to build resilience.
• Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning. The article discusses the goal of reaching “net-zero” or “carbon negative” emissions and criticizes policies that “encourage other countries (along with the U.S.) to keep burning fossil fuels,” directly referencing the need for policy integration to combat climate change.

SDG 14: Life Below Water

• Target 14.2: By 2020, sustainably manage and protect marine and coastal ecosystems to avoid significant adverse impacts, including by strengthening their resilience, and take action for their restoration in order to achieve healthy and productive oceans. The article’s entire premise—that the ocean is absorbing massive amounts of heat, leading to long-term, delayed warming—describes a significant adverse impact on the marine ecosystem of the Southern Ocean.
• Target 14.3: Minimize and address the impacts of ocean acidification, including through enhanced scientific cooperation at all levels. Although the article notes the primary impact is “thermal, not chemical,” it acknowledges the ocean acts as a “carbon sink” by absorbing “atmospheric carbon.” This absorption of CO2 is the direct cause of ocean acidification, making this target relevant.

SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

• Target 7.2: By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix. The article’s call to end the practice of “burning fossil fuels with reckless abandon” and achieve a “green revolution” directly implies the need to transition to renewable energy sources to mitigate the problem.

SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

• Target 11.5: By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected and substantially decrease the direct economic losses relative to global gross domestic product caused by disasters… with a focus on protecting the poor and people in vulnerable situations. The predicted “renewed pulse of warming” is a climate-related hazard that would disproportionately affect vulnerable countries, as stated in the article, linking directly to this target’s focus on protecting those most at risk.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

SDG 13: Climate Action

• Greenhouse Gas/CO2 Emissions Levels: The article repeatedly mentions “greenhouse gas emissions,” “CO2 entering the atmosphere,” and the goal of reaching “net negative emissions.” Tracking these emission levels is a direct indicator of progress.
• Global Warming Rates: The article refers to “anthropogenic warming rates” and a future “decadal- to centennial-scale period of warming,” implying that the rate of global temperature change is a key metric.

SDG 14: Life Below Water

• Ocean Heat Content: The core subject is “heat that has previously accumulated under global warming in the deep Southern Ocean.” Measuring the amount of heat stored in the ocean is a direct indicator of this climate impact.
• Sea Ice Cover: The article explicitly states that “much of the sea ice that historically reflected the heat has melted.” The extent of sea ice is a critical indicator of the health of polar marine ecosystems.

SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

• Fossil Fuel Consumption: The article identifies “burning fossil fuels” as the cause of the problem. Therefore, a reduction in fossil fuel consumption is an implied indicator of progress towards a “green revolution.”

SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

• Differential Impact on Vulnerable Nations: The article suggests measuring the impact of warming on “vulnerable countries of the global south.” This implies an indicator focused on tracking the specific climate-related economic and social damages in these regions compared to others.

4. Create a table with three columns titled ‘SDGs, Targets and Indicators” to present the findings from analyzing the article.

Source: theweek.com