10 Key Findings from the Zambia Poverty and Equity Assessment – World Bank Group

Zambia Poverty and Equity Assessment: An SDG-Focused Analysis

Alignment with Sustainable Development Goal 1: No Poverty

An analysis of Zambia’s economic landscape reveals a significant disconnect between economic growth and poverty reduction, posing a direct challenge to the achievement of SDG 1 (No Poverty). Despite a relatively higher GDP per capita, the nation’s progress on poverty alleviation has been minimal.

• In 2022, 70.7% of the Zambian population lived on less than $3 per day.
• This indicates that historical economic growth has not been inclusive and has failed to translate into meaningful poverty reduction for the majority of citizens.
• The persistence of poverty appears to be entrenched and driven by structural factors rather than temporary economic shocks.

Rural-Urban Disparities and SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

The assessment highlights profound inequalities between rural and urban areas, a key concern for SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities). The concentration of poverty in specific geographic and demographic segments underscores a structural imbalance in development.

Rural Poverty Analysis

• Rural areas are disproportionately affected, accounting for 80% of the nation’s poor.
• More than three out of four rural households subsist below the poverty line.
• This deep-rooted rural poverty points to systemic barriers preventing equitable participation in the economy.

Urban Poverty Dynamics

• Urban poverty also presents a challenge, with significant disparities observed between the capital, Lusaka, and other urban centers.
• The higher incidence of poverty in these secondary urban areas in 2022 is identified as a structural issue, demanding targeted interventions to reduce intra-urban inequalities.

The Role of Agriculture in Achieving SDG 1 and SDG 2

The agricultural sector is central to the livelihoods of the rural poor, directly impacting SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 2 (Zero Hunger). Its current state and future potential are critical factors in Zambia’s development strategy.

• The prevalence of small-scale agriculture keeps a majority of rural households at subsistence levels, limiting their capacity to escape poverty and achieve food security.
• However, the assessment notes that agriculture can serve as a viable pathway out of poverty when favorable conditions are established, suggesting that strategic investments in the sector could yield significant progress toward achieving both SDG 1 and SDG 2.

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article primarily addresses issues related to the following Sustainable Development Goals:

• SDG 1: No Poverty

  This is the most central SDG in the article. The text explicitly discusses poverty rates, the poverty line, and the concentration of poverty in Zambia. It highlights that “70.7% of the population lives on less than $3 a day in 2022” and that “poverty has become increasingly entrenched over time.” The distinction between rural and urban poverty, with “80% of the poor residing in rural areas,” directly relates to ending poverty in all its forms everywhere.

• SDG 2: Zero Hunger

  The article connects rural poverty directly to agriculture. It states that “Small-scale agriculture keeps most rural households at subsistence levels,” which implies issues of food security, low agricultural productivity, and insufficient income for small-scale farmers. The mention that “agriculture can still offer pathways out of poverty” reinforces its connection to this goal, which aims to end hunger, achieve food security, improve nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture.

• SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

  The article points to a significant inequality issue by stating, “Despite relatively higher GDP per capita… past economic growth has failed to deliver meaningful poverty reduction.” This indicates that the benefits of economic growth have not been shared equally. The analysis of disparities between rural and urban areas (“80% of the poor residing in rural areas”) and even within urban centers (“notable disparities between Lusaka and other urban centers”) directly addresses the goal of reducing inequality within and among countries.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the issues discussed, the following specific targets can be identified:

• Target 1.2: By 2030, reduce at least by half the proportion of men, women and children of all ages living in poverty in all its dimensions according to national definitions.

  The article’s focus on the high percentage of the population living below a poverty line (“70.7% of the population lives on less than $3 a day”) and its analysis of poverty dimensions, such as the rural-urban divide, directly align with this target of reducing multidimensional poverty.

• Target 2.3: By 2030, double the agricultural productivity and incomes of small-scale food producers…

  The article’s statement that “Small-scale agriculture keeps most rural households at subsistence levels” points to the low productivity and incomes of these producers. The observation that agriculture can be a “pathway out of poverty” underscores the importance and relevance of this target to address the situation in rural Zambia.

• Target 10.1: By 2030, progressively achieve and sustain income growth of the bottom 40 per cent of the population at a rate higher than the national average.

  The core finding that “past economic growth has failed to deliver meaningful poverty reduction” despite a “higher GDP per capita” implies that the income growth of the poorest segments of the population has lagged behind the national average. This directly relates to the goal of ensuring that economic growth is inclusive and benefits the most vulnerable.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Yes, the article mentions and implies several indicators:

• Indicator for Target 1.2: Proportion of population living below the national/international poverty line.

  The article provides a specific data point for this indicator: “70.7% of the population lives on less than $3 a day in 2022.” It also provides a qualitative indicator for the rural population, stating that “more than three out of four households struggle below the poverty line.”

• Indicator for Target 2.3: Average income of small-scale food producers.

  While not providing a specific monetary value, the article implies this indicator is low by describing the situation as “subsistence levels.” Measuring the change from subsistence to more profitable farming would be a way to track progress toward this target.

• Indicator for Target 10.1: Growth rates of household expenditure or income per capita among the bottom 40 per cent of the population and the total population.

  The article implies a disparity in these growth rates. The statement that “higher GDP per capita” has not led to “meaningful poverty reduction” suggests that the income growth rate for the total population (reflected in GDP per capita) is higher than that of the poorest populations, which remain entrenched in poverty. This disparity is a key measure for this indicator.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: worldbank.org