A shocking new warning about global poverty should unsettle everyone – vox.com

Report on Global Progress Towards Sustainable Development Goal 1: No Poverty

Historical Progress in Poverty Eradication (1990-Present)

An analysis of global poverty trends reveals significant progress toward achieving Sustainable Development Goal 1 (No Poverty). Key achievements over the past three decades include:

• A substantial reduction in the number of people living in extreme poverty, from 2.3 billion in 1990 to approximately 800 million today.
• This progress occurred despite a near doubling of the global population during the same period.
• On average, 115,000 people have escaped extreme poverty—defined as living on the equivalent of $3 or less per day—each day for the last 35 years.

This sustained reduction represents one of the most significant accomplishments in modern human development.

Emerging Challenges to Achieving SDG 1 by 2030

Despite past successes, recent projections indicate a potential stagnation and reversal of progress. According to analysis from Our World in Data, the number of people in extreme poverty is expected to increase after 2030. This trend threatens the core objective of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

1. Geographic Concentration of Poverty: The majority of people living in extreme poverty are now concentrated in regions where economic growth has been weak or nonexistent, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa and fragile, conflict-affected states.
2. Demographic Pressures: High population growth in countries with stagnant economies creates a challenging scenario where more children are born into poverty, offsetting potential gains.
3. Failure of Traditional Growth Models: The economic growth that lifted millions out of poverty in Asia is not being replicated in the regions where extreme poverty is now most entrenched.

Interlinkages with Other Sustainable Development Goals

The challenges to achieving SDG 1 are deeply interconnected with other SDGs, creating a complex web of development hurdles.

• SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth): The historical success in poverty reduction was propelled by rapid economic growth. The current challenge stems from a lack of growth in the world’s poorest regions.
• SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions): The World Bank estimates that by 2030, nearly 60% of the world’s extreme poor will reside in conflict-affected economies. Civil war and instability can erase a decade of economic progress, making SDG 16 a prerequisite for SDG 1.
• SDG 13 (Climate Action): Climate shocks, including droughts, flooding, and crop failures, can push millions of people back into extreme poverty overnight, demonstrating the critical link between climate resilience and poverty eradication.

Strategic Recommendations for Future Action

Projections are not prophecy. To ensure the continued progress toward SDG 1, a renewed and targeted strategy is required, focusing on the regions left behind. Key interventions should include:

• Fostering better governance and peace-building efforts to create stable environments for development (SDG 16).
• Driving targeted investment to stimulate economic growth in low-growth regions (SDG 8).
• Expanding access to affordable and clean energy to power economic activity (SDG 7).
• Creating expanded and safe migration opportunities to address economic disparities (SDG 10).

Sustaining the historic progress against extreme poverty requires extending the proven tools of development to the world’s most vulnerable populations. Failure to do so will jeopardize the global commitment to end poverty in all its forms by 2030.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

1. SDG 1: No Poverty
   • The entire article is centered on the issue of extreme poverty. It discusses the historical progress made in reducing the number of people living in extreme poverty, from 2.3 billion in 1990 to around 800 million today, and the potential reversal of this trend.
2. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
   • The article identifies economic growth as the primary engine for poverty reduction. It states, “The last few decades of astonishing global progress were propelled above all by growth.” It contrasts the rapid economic growth in countries like China and India with the stagnant economies in sub-Saharan Africa, such as Madagascar, where “GDP per capita today is roughly what it was in the 1950s.”
3. SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions
   • The article highlights conflict as a major impediment to poverty reduction. It mentions that a significant portion of the world’s poor are concentrated in “fragile and conflict-affected states.” It cites a World Bank estimate that “by 2030, nearly 60 percent of the world’s extreme poor will live in conflict-affected economies.”
4. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • The article points to climate change as a threat that can reverse progress against poverty. It explicitly mentions that “Climate shocks can do the same” as a civil war in wiping out economic progress. It lists “drought, flooding, or crop failure” as events that can push millions back below the poverty line.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. Target 1.1: Eradicate extreme poverty
   • The article’s main focus is on the number of people “living in extreme poverty — meaning on the equivalent of $3 or less per day.” It discusses the goal of reducing this number and the projection that after 2030, “the number of extremely poor people is expected to increase,” which directly relates to the target of eradicating extreme poverty.
2. Target 1.5: Build resilience to economic, social and environmental shocks
   • The article discusses the vulnerability of the poor to shocks, stating that “Climate shocks” like “drought, flooding, or crop failure” can cause “millions can fall back below the poverty line overnight.” This directly connects to the need to build resilience among the poor to such environmental and economic disasters.
3. Target 8.1: Sustain per capita economic growth
   • The article argues that the lack of economic growth is a primary reason why poverty persists in certain regions. It uses Madagascar as an example of a country where “GDP per capita today is roughly what it was in the 1950s,” preventing poverty reduction despite a massive population increase. This aligns with the target of sustaining economic growth, especially in the least developed countries.
4. Target 16.1: Significantly reduce all forms of violence
   • The article links poverty directly to conflict, noting that “a civil war can wipe out a decade of economic progress” and that a majority of the extreme poor will soon live in “conflict-affected economies.” This highlights the importance of reducing violence and conflict to achieve poverty reduction goals.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

1. Indicator 1.1.1: Proportion of the population living below the international poverty line
   • The article explicitly uses this indicator. It defines extreme poverty as living on “$3 or less per day” and provides specific numbers: a fall “from 2.3 billion to around 800 million” since 1990. It also uses projections of this number, such as a decline “by about 40 million over the next five years” and an expected increase after 2030.
2. Indicator 8.1.1: Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita
   • This indicator is directly referenced in the article’s analysis of Madagascar, where it notes that “GDP per capita today is roughly what it was in the 1950s.” The article’s core argument relies on this metric, contrasting high-growth countries that reduced poverty with low-growth countries where poverty is entrenched.
3. Proportion of poor people living in conflict-affected regions (Implied Indicator)
   • While not a formal UN indicator, the article implies its importance by citing the World Bank estimate that “by 2030, nearly 60 percent of the world’s extreme poor will live in conflict-affected economies.” This metric is used to measure the intersection of poverty and conflict.
4. Number of people pushed into poverty by climate-related disasters (Implied Indicator)
   • The article implies this indicator by stating that when climate shocks like drought or flooding hit, “millions can fall back below the poverty line overnight.” Measuring the number of people affected this way would be a direct way to track progress on building resilience (Target 1.5).

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators Table

Source: vox.com