Report on Brazil’s Sustainable Fuels Proposal for COP30 and its Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

1.0 Introduction: The Belém 4x Pledge

A draft proposal for the upcoming COP30 climate conference reveals that Brazil, along with partner nations, will advocate for a quadrupling of the global production and use of “sustainable fuels” by 2030, compared to 2024 levels. This initiative, known as the Belém 4x pledge, encompasses biofuels, biogases, hydrogen, and their derivatives. The proposal directly targets advancements in SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 13 (Climate Action) by aiming to displace fossil fuels in the global energy mix, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors. However, the pledge has generated significant debate regarding its potential adverse effects on other critical Sustainable Development Goals.

2.0 Analysis of the Proposal in the Context of SDGs

2.1 Stated Alignment with SDG 7 and SDG 13

The proponents of the pledge argue that a fourfold increase in sustainable fuels is essential for meeting global climate targets.

• SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy): The initiative aims to substantially increase the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.
• SDG 13 (Climate Action): By replacing fossil fuels, the pledge is presented as a crucial strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating climate change.

According to a clarification from Brazil’s foreign affairs ministry, the term “sustainable” is strictly defined, requiring fuels to have a low lifecycle greenhouse gas intensity and to comply with non-GHG criteria, including biodiversity conservation and social safeguards.

2.2 Environmental and Social Concerns Contradicting Key SDGs

Environmental experts and campaign groups have raised alarms that the large-scale production of biofuels, a primary component of the pledge, could undermine several SDGs.

1. Impact on SDG 15 (Life on Land): There is significant concern that increased demand for biofuel crops will lead to further deforestation, the replacement of biodiverse ecosystems with monocultures (such as corn, soy, and sugarcane), and overall land degradation.
2. Impact on SDG 2 (Zero Hunger): The pledge raises critical questions about food security. The diversion of arable land and crops like vegetable oil for fuel production creates direct competition with food supply chains, potentially exacerbating global hunger.
3. Impact on SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation): The water footprint of biofuels is a major concern. One report indicates that 3,000 litres of water are required to produce enough biofuel to drive a vehicle 100km, placing significant strain on water resources.
4. Contradiction with SDG 13 (Climate Action): A study by the Transport and Environment thinktank suggests that due to the indirect impacts of farming and deforestation, current biofuels may be responsible for 16% more CO2 emissions than the fossil fuels they are intended to replace, challenging the proposal’s core climate benefit.

3.0 Broader COP30 Agenda and its Relation to Global Goals

The COP30 agenda reflects a wider focus on interconnected development and environmental goals.

• Forests and SDG 15: The summit will feature a Brazilian initiative to establish a “Tropical Forests Forever Facility,” aiming to raise $125 billion to protect standing forests, directly supporting the targets of SDG 15.
• Finance and SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals): A key proposal from President Lula da Silva involves debt forgiveness for developing nations in exchange for investments in environmental protection and clean energy. This initiative aligns with SDG 17 by fostering global partnerships for sustainable development.
• Energy Transition and SDG 13: The summit will address the global commitment to “transition away from fossil fuels.” This discussion is central to achieving the Paris Agreement goals and the overarching objective of SDG 13.

4.0 Conclusion

The proposal to quadruple sustainable fuel use presents a complex challenge to the integrated nature of the Sustainable Development Goals. While it aims to advance SDG 7 and SDG 13, credible evidence suggests it could severely compromise progress on SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), and SDG 15 (Life on Land). The success of the Belém 4x pledge in contributing positively to the 2030 Agenda will depend on the rigorous implementation and enforcement of sustainability criteria that prevent negative trade-offs and ensure a balanced approach to global development.

Analysis of the Article in Relation to Sustainable Development Goals

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy: The article’s central theme is the proposal to quadruple the use of “sustainable fuels,” including biofuels, biogas, and hydrogen, as an alternative to fossil fuels. This directly relates to increasing the share of renewable and cleaner energy sources in the global energy mix.
• SDG 13: Climate Action: The entire context of the discussion is the Cop30 climate conference. The proposal for sustainable fuels is presented as a climate mitigation strategy to “displace fossil fuels” and help meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global heating. The article also discusses Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the goal to “transition away from fossil fuels.”
• SDG 2: Zero Hunger: The article raises significant concerns about the impact of biofuel production on food security. It explicitly mentions that increased biofuel cultivation is “reducing the land available for food production” and that “a fifth of vegetable oil is used for cars rather than food,” highlighting the competition between fuel and food.
• SDG 15: Life on Land: The environmental side effects of biofuel production are a major point of contention. The article states that it is leading to “increased deforestation,” the “replacement of land that is rich in species with monocultures,” and biodiversity loss. It also discusses a counter-initiative to raise $125bn to protect “standing forests.”
• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation: The article points to the high water consumption of biofuels, noting that “3,000 litres of water are needed to drive 100km on biofuels.” This connects the energy transition debate to the sustainable management of water resources.
• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals: The article describes a multi-stakeholder, international effort. It involves Brazil proposing a pledge for other countries (like Italy, Japan, and India) to join, discussions at the global Cop30 summit, and financial initiatives like the “Tropical Forests Forever Facility” supported by the UK and other European governments. It also mentions calls for debt forgiveness in exchange for environmental investments, a key aspect of global financial partnerships.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

   • Target 7.2: By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix. The proposal to “quadruple the global use of ‘sustainable fuels'” directly aims to achieve this target by promoting alternatives to fossil fuels.
   • Target 7.a: By 2030, enhance international cooperation to facilitate access to clean energy research and technology… and promote investment in clean energy technology. The proposed global pledge at Cop30 is an example of international cooperation to advance a specific set of clean energy technologies (biofuels, biogas, hydrogen).

2. SDG 13: Climate Action

   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning. The discussion around countries’ plans on greenhouse gas emissions, known as “nationally determined contributions (NDCs),” is a direct reference to this target. The pledge itself is a strategy to be integrated into global and national plans.

3. SDG 2: Zero Hunger

   • Target 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems… The article questions the sustainability of biofuel production by highlighting its negative impact on the availability of land and resources (like vegetable oil) for food, which threatens the stability of food production systems.

4. SDG 15: Life on Land

   • Target 15.2: By 2020, promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation, restore degraded forests… The article directly addresses this by citing concerns that biofuel expansion leads to “increased deforestation” and “land clearance,” running counter to the goal of halting deforestation. The “Tropical Forests Forever Facility” is an initiative aimed at achieving this target.
   • Target 15.5: Take urgent and significant action to reduce the degradation of natural habitats, halt the loss of biodiversity… The article’s mention of replacing “land that is rich in species with monocultures” of corn, soy, and sugarcane directly relates to the degradation of habitats and loss of biodiversity.

5. SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation

   • Target 6.4: By 2030, substantially increase water-use efficiency across all sectors… The statistic that “3,000 litres of water are needed to drive 100km on biofuels” highlights a challenge to this target, suggesting that this particular energy source is highly water-intensive and may decrease overall water-use efficiency.

6. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

   • Target 17.14: Enhance policy coherence for sustainable development. The central conflict described in the article—promoting biofuels for climate goals (SDG 13/7) while potentially undermining food security (SDG 2) and biodiversity (SDG 15)—is a clear example of a lack of policy coherence that needs to be addressed.
   • Target 17.16: Enhance the Global Partnership for Sustainable Development… The Cop30 conference, the proposed pledge involving multiple nations, and international financial support for forest conservation are all manifestations of this target in action.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• Volume of sustainable fuel use: The primary indicator is the call to “quadruple the global use of ‘sustainable fuels’ … compared with 2024 levels.” This is a direct, quantifiable measure of progress for SDG 7.
• Greenhouse gas intensity: The article mentions a specific metric for sustainability: “low-GHG intensity over its lifecycle, measured in grams of CO2 equivalent by megajoule of fuel (gCO2;MJ).” This is a technical indicator for measuring the climate impact (SDG 13).
• Land use for biofuel crops: The article implies this indicator by stating that by 2030, biofuel crops would “require land the size of France.” Tracking the total area of arable land dedicated to biofuel production is a key indicator for assessing impacts on SDG 2 and SDG 15.
• Rate of deforestation: The concern about “increased deforestation” implies that the rate of forest loss in regions producing biofuels is a critical indicator for measuring the negative impact on SDG 15.
• Diversion of food resources: The statistic that “a fifth of vegetable oil is used for cars rather than food” serves as an indicator of the competition between food and fuel systems (SDG 2).
• Water consumption: The figure of “3,000 litres of water are needed to drive 100km on biofuels” is a specific indicator of water-use intensity for this energy source, relevant to SDG 6.
• Financial flows for conservation: The goal to “raise $125bn (£93bn) to support standing forests” through the “Tropical Forests Forever Facility” is a financial indicator for progress on SDG 15 and SDG 17.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: theguardian.com