Economic Performance Report: Mexico’s Progress Towards Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary of July 2025 Economic Activity

Preliminary data from the National Statistics Agency (INEGI) indicates a deceleration in Mexico’s economic activity in July 2025. This performance presents challenges to the nation’s progress towards achieving key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth).

• Annual Growth: The economy is estimated to have grown by 0.1% year-over-year.
• Monthly Growth: A month-over-month contraction of 0.1% was recorded.
• Economic Trend: This marks the second monthly contraction in 2025, following a 0.2% decrease in March, indicating economic fragility after a period of stagnation with 0% growth in May and June.

Analysis in the Context of SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

The recent economic indicators suggest a significant challenge to achieving the sustained, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth outlined in SDG 8. The pattern of contraction and stagnation undermines the stability required for creating decent employment opportunities and improving living standards.

1. Hindrance to Sustained Growth: The negative monthly growth figure, coupled with zero growth in the preceding two months, signals a lack of economic momentum necessary to meet SDG 8’s target for sustained per capita economic growth.
2. Impact on Job Creation: Economic volatility directly affects the capacity of the economy to generate new and decent jobs, a cornerstone of SDG 8.
3. Productivity Concerns: The slight moderation in economic performance reflects potential issues in achieving higher levels of economic productivity through diversification and technological upgrading.

Sectoral Performance and SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure

The performance of the industrial sector is a critical indicator of progress towards SDG 9, which calls for building resilient infrastructure, promoting inclusive and sustainable industrialization, and fostering innovation. The data reveals a concerning trend for this sector.

• Monthly Industrial Contraction: The secondary sector experienced a 0.1% decline on a monthly basis.
• Annual Industrial Decline: On an annual basis, the sector contracted by a more significant 1.0%.

This negative performance in secondary activities, as highlighted by Monex financial group, signals a move away from the goal of sustainable industrialization and could impede the development of a robust industrial base essential for long-term economic resilience.

Economic Outlook and Implications for SDG 1 and SDG 10

Disparities in economic growth forecasts highlight the uncertainty surrounding Mexico’s path to reducing poverty (SDG 1) and inequalities (SDG 10). While the Finance Ministry remains optimistic, independent forecasts suggest a more modest outlook.

• Official Government Estimate: 1.5% to 2.3% for 2026.
• OECD Forecast: 0.4% for 2025.
• Citi Forecast: 0.3% for 2025.
• IMEF Forecast: 0.4% for 2025 (revised up from 0.1%).

Lower-than-projected growth could slow progress on poverty alleviation and potentially widen income disparities, making the achievement of SDG 1 and SDG 10 more difficult.

Trade Relations and SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

The economic outlook is closely tied to international trade dynamics, underscoring the importance of SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals). The upward revision of the IMEF forecast was linked to the postponement of U.S. tariffs on Mexican goods.

This situation demonstrates how interruptions and uncertainty in international trade partnerships can disrupt export flows and negatively impact the domestic economy. Stable and predictable trade relationships are therefore essential for creating an enabling environment for sustainable development.

Relevant Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

• The article’s primary focus is on the economic performance of Mexico, directly aligning with SDG 8, which aims to “promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all.” The text extensively discusses Mexico’s economic growth rates, contractions, and forecasts, which are central to this goal.

Specific SDG Targets

Target 8.1: Sustain per capita economic growth

• This target aims to sustain economic growth in accordance with national circumstances. The article directly addresses this by reporting on Mexico’s economic performance, including an expected annual growth of 0.1% in July, a month-over-month contraction of 0.1%, and a quarterly growth of 0.7%. It also presents various GDP growth forecasts from entities like the OECD (0.4%) and Citi (0.3%), all of which are measures of economic growth.

Target 8.2: Achieve higher levels of economic productivity

• This target focuses on achieving economic productivity through diversification and focusing on different economic sectors. The article touches upon this by analyzing the performance of specific sectors. It notes a “slight moderation in the performance of the main groups of economic activities (secondary and tertiary)” and highlights that “secondary activities… remain in negative territory in their annual comparison.” Specifically, it states that the “industrial sector, a secondary economic activity, experienced a monthly contraction of 0.1%, as well as an annual decline of 1%.” This analysis of sectoral performance is directly related to measuring economic productivity.

Indicators for Measuring Progress

Indicator 8.1.1: Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita

• The article provides numerous data points that are components of this indicator. While it doesn’t specify “per capita” growth, it is filled with real GDP growth figures, such as “0.1% annually in July,” a “month-on-month decrease of 0.2% in March,” and quarterly growth of “0.7%.” These statistics are the primary measures used to track progress toward Target 8.1.

Indicator 8.2.1: Annual growth rate of real GDP per employed person

• Although the article does not mention employment figures, it implies this indicator by discussing the performance and productivity of different economic sectors. The mention of the industrial sector’s “annual decline of 1%” is a direct measure of the output of a major economic activity group. This sectoral performance data is crucial for assessing economic productivity, which is the core of this indicator.

Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: mexiconewsdaily.com