Guatemala Food Security Outlook: Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists following annual subsistence crop losses, October 2025 – May 2026 – ReliefWeb

Report on Food Insecurity in Guatemala and its Implications for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Executive Summary

As of October 2025, significant regions of Guatemala, including the Dry Corridor, Alta Verapaz, and the Highlands, are experiencing Crisis-level (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity. This situation presents a direct challenge to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), most notably SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 1 (No Poverty), and SDG 13 (Climate Action). Climate-induced disruptions to agriculture have led to crop losses, forcing the most vulnerable households into debt and market dependency. It is estimated that between 1.5 and 1.99 million people will require humanitarian food assistance through May 2026, highlighting a severe setback for sustainable development in the country.

Analysis of Current Food Security Situation (October 2025)

• Widespread Food Crisis: Large areas are classified under Crisis (IPC Phase 3), directly undermining progress towards SDG 2 (Zero Hunger).
• Climate-Induced Harvest Delays: Irregular and insufficient rainfall, a critical concern for SDG 13 (Climate Action), delayed staple grain harvests.
• Economic Strain on Vulnerable Households: The delay has prolonged market dependency and increased debt accumulation among poor households, exacerbating conditions of poverty and challenging SDG 1 (No Poverty).

Projected Food Security Outlook (November 2025 – May 2026)

1. November – January: A temporary improvement to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) is anticipated in many areas. This is due to the availability of grains from the harvest and seasonal employment opportunities, offering a brief respite but not a sustainable solution for achieving SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth).
2. February – May: A widespread return to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions is expected. The depletion of household food reserves and the decline in seasonal labor will reverse recent gains.
3. Premature Lean Season: The poorest households, having experienced below-average harvests, will face an early start to the lean season. This forces premature market dependency amid above-average grain prices, severely impacting household resilience and efforts towards SDG 2 (Zero Hunger).

Population in Need and Regional Concerns

• Affected Population: An estimated 1.5 to 1.99 million people will require food assistance. The number is expected to be at the lower end of this range from November to January and rise to the upper limit by May.
• Areas of Greatest Concern: The Dry Corridor remains the most critical area, followed by Alta Verapaz and the Highlands.
• Erosion of Livelihoods: For the third consecutive year, households in these regions have faced recurrent climate shocks. This has deteriorated their livelihoods, limited their capacity for recovery, and entrenched a cycle of vulnerability, working against SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities).

Core Challenges to Sustainable Development

• Climate Vulnerability (SDG 13): Prolonged dry periods and excessive rainfall have damaged subsistence production, demonstrating the acute vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate change.
• Poverty and Economic Instability (SDG 1 & SDG 8): Below-average harvests and income losses have led to high indebtedness and atypical labor migration, undermining efforts to build resilient livelihoods and achieve decent work for all.
• Hunger and Health (SDG 2 & SDG 3): The reduction in the quantity of household food consumption due to high prices and low reserves poses a significant threat to nutrition and well-being, directly impeding progress on eliminating hunger.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 2: Zero Hunger

  This is the most prominent SDG addressed. The article’s central theme is food insecurity, focusing on populations facing “Crisis (IPC Phase 3)” and “Stressed (IPC Phase 2)” conditions. It explicitly quantifies the “population in need of food assistance” and discusses issues like staple grain harvests, market dependency, and the lean season, all of which are core components of SDG 2.

• SDG 1: No Poverty

  The article consistently refers to the vulnerability of “poor households” and the “poorest households.” It highlights how food insecurity is intertwined with poverty, mentioning that these households are forced to “accumulate debts to satisfy their food needs” and have their “livelihoods deteriorated,” which limits their recovery capacity. This directly connects to the goal of ending poverty in all its forms.

• SDG 13: Climate Action

  The article identifies climate-related events as the primary drivers of the food security crisis. It cites “irregular and scarce rainfall,” “prolonged dry periods,” and “excessive rainfall” as the causes of crop losses and below-average harvests. This demonstrates a direct link between climate impacts and human well-being, which is a central concern of SDG 13.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. Target 2.1: End hunger and ensure access to food

   The article directly relates to this target by describing a situation where a significant portion of the population lacks secure access to food. The estimate that “1.5 to 1.99 million people” will be in need of food assistance and the classification of areas in “Crisis (IPC Phase 3)” food insecurity show a clear failure to meet this target for vulnerable populations in the specified regions.

2. Target 2.4: Ensure sustainable food production systems and resilient agricultural practices

   The article highlights the vulnerability of the current agricultural system. It states that “recurrent weather impacts have caused below-average harvests” and that “prolonged dry periods and excessive rainfall have damaged subsistence production.” This indicates that the agricultural practices in place are not resilient to climate change and extreme weather, a key focus of Target 2.4.

3. Target 1.5: Build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations to climate-related extreme events

   This target is relevant as the article describes how the poorest households have faced “recurrent weather impacts” for the “third consecutive year,” which has “deteriorated their livelihoods, limiting their recovery capacity.” Their high indebtedness and atypical labor migration are symptoms of a lack of resilience to the climate-related shocks discussed.

4. Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters

   The entire scenario described in the article is an example of insufficient resilience and adaptive capacity to climate hazards. The “irregular and scarce rainfall” and “prolonged dry periods” are climate-related hazards that have led to a widespread food security crisis, demonstrating a clear need to strengthen the resilience of these communities as outlined in Target 13.1.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• Indicator for Target 2.1: The article provides direct quantitative and qualitative indicators.
  • Prevalence of food insecurity: The use of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) system, specifically mentioning “Crisis (IPC Phase 3)” and “Stressed (IPC Phase 2),” is a direct measure of the severity and prevalence of food insecurity.
  • Population in need of assistance: The specific estimate that “the population in need of food assistance will be 1.5 to 1.99 million people” is a clear indicator used to track the number of people without access to sufficient food.
• Indicator for Target 2.4: The article implies indicators related to agricultural productivity and resilience.
  • Crop harvest levels: The mention of “delayed staple grain harvests,” “below-average harvests,” and “considerable losses of subsistence crops” serves as a qualitative indicator of the failure of agricultural systems to withstand climate shocks.
• Indicators for Targets 1.5 and 13.1: The article points to several socio-economic indicators that measure the lack of resilience.
  • Household debt levels: The fact that poor households “accumulate debts to satisfy their food needs” is an indicator of negative coping strategies and low economic resilience.
  • Livelihood deterioration: The statement that conditions have “deteriorated their livelihoods, limiting their recovery capacity” is a qualitative indicator of vulnerability.
  • Atypical migration: The mention of “atypical labor migration” is an indicator of severe distress and the inability of local systems to support populations in the face of climate shocks.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: reliefweb.int