Hope as an enabler of climate change adaptation – Nature

Report Summary: The Role of Hope in Climate Adaptation and Achieving Sustainable Development Goals

Current efforts in climate change adaptation are insufficient to meet global needs, threatening the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 13 (Climate Action). This report examines emerging research suggesting that hope, as a psychological and cognitive process, is a critical enabler for climate action and sustainable development. A theoretical model is presented illustrating how hope can drive adaptation by empowering individuals and communities to identify and pursue adaptation goals. This process creates a reinforcing feedback loop where effective collective adaptation strengthens hope, thereby building momentum towards resilient and sustainable futures as envisioned by the 2030 Agenda.

1.0 Introduction: Climate Change as a Barrier to Sustainable Development

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirms that climate change is causing widespread disruption, directly undermining progress on numerous SDGs. These impacts threaten global stability and the well-being of communities worldwide.

1.1 Global Impacts on SDGs

• SDG 2 (Zero Hunger): Climate change is linked to declining agricultural yields and increased malnutrition.
• SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being): Impacts include the intensification of heat stress and the spread of infectious diseases.
• SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities): Extreme weather events cause significant damage to critical infrastructure.

While these cascading risks can foster despair, this report posits that adaptation, when fueled by hope, provides a viable pathway forward. Engaging in adaptation is essential not only for managing climate impacts but also for inspiring the hope necessary to drive transformative change, aligning with the core principles of the SDGs.

2.0 The Imperative for Climate Adaptation (SDG 13)

Climate change adaptation refers to the process of adjusting social and ecological systems to moderate the harm from actual and expected climate effects. It is a critical component of SDG 13 (Climate Action) and is intrinsically linked to broader sustainable development.

2.1 Adaptation in Practice: Supporting Multiple SDGs

Adaptation actions are most effective when implemented collectively, contributing to several SDGs simultaneously:

1. Sustainable Agriculture and Water Management: In Ghana, smallholder farmers are investing in irrigation and afforestation, supporting SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation).
2. Economic Resilience: Farmer groups in Kenya and Uganda use collective loans and livestock management to enhance financial stability, contributing to SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth).
3. Community-Based Resource Management: Communities in the Marshall Islands and Fiji collectively manage copra production, fishing, and seawall repairs, fostering community resilience (SDG 11) and protecting marine ecosystems (SDG 14: Life Below Water).

2.2 The Adaptation Gap and Its Impact on Inequalities (SDG 10)

A significant gap persists between adaptation goals and implemented actions. This gap disproportionately affects marginalized communities in the Global South, who have the fewest resources to adapt, thereby exacerbating existing inequalities and hindering progress on SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities). Barriers to adaptation are extensive and include:

• Economic and political constraints.
• Lack of social capital and trust in authorities.
• Psycho-social processes that limit perceived efficacy.

3.0 The Case for Hope as a Driver of Sustainable Action

Emotions are powerful drivers of action. While negative emotions like anxiety can motivate pro-environmental behavior, hope is identified as a crucial positive emotion and cognitive process for enabling sustained climate action and promoting well-being (SDG 3).

3.1 Defining Hope in the Context of the SDGs

Hope is conceptualized as a future-focused positive emotion combined with a cognitive appraisal of possibility. It is the “belief in the possibility of a favourable outcome,” which distinguishes it from simple optimism. Hope thrives in uncertainty, making it particularly relevant for intractable challenges like climate change.

3.2 Mechanisms of Hope for Enabling Action

Hope operates through two primary mechanisms that are essential for achieving the SDGs:

• Willpower (Agency): The motivation and determination to pursue identified goals.
• Waypower (Pathways): The perceived ability to identify and implement strategies to achieve those goals.

Together, these mechanisms bolster perceived efficacy, which is a strong predictor of both individual and collective action. Hope enhances collective efficacy, which is fundamental for the partnerships required by SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).

3.3 Outcomes of Hope

1. Climate Action: Studies show a strong correlation between hope and intentions to act on climate change. Hope can be enabled by observing collective action, creating a positive feedback loop.
2. Well-being (SDG 3): Hope is correlated with improved interpersonal relationships, subjective well-being, and a greater sense of control, protecting individuals from chronic anxiety.

4.0 A Conceptual Model of Hope as an Enabler of Climate Change Adaptation (MHECCA)

This report proposes a conceptual model where hope enables climate adaptation, and successful adaptation reinforces hope. This virtuous cycle can increase well-being (SDG 3), build adaptive capacity, and improve investment in adaptation, contributing to SDG 13 and SDG 11.

4.1 Core Tenets of the MHECCA Model

• Hope fosters collective adaptation.
• Adaptation, in turn, fosters hope.

4.2 Background Conditions Influencing Hope and Adaptation

The model identifies three categories of background conditions that shape the potential for hope to thrive.

• Personal Factors: Individual experiences with climate impacts, education, and access to information influence risk perception and motivation.
• Group Factors: Social identity, group norms, and collective experiences are critical for building the collective efficacy needed for community-based adaptation (SDG 11, SDG 16).
• Environmental Factors: Broader social, political, and economic conditions, such as poverty (SDG 1) and marginalization (SDG 10), can severely constrain adaptation pathways and stifle hope. However, case studies show that even in challenging contexts, collective action can sustain hope and drive change.

5.0 Challenges and Considerations for SDG Implementation

While hope is a powerful enabler, several caveats must be considered to ensure that hope-based interventions lead to just and sustainable outcomes, aligning with the “Leave No One Behind” principle of the SDGs.

5.1 Potential Risks

• False Hope: Hope for an adaptation that is not technically feasible or is poorly designed can increase vulnerability and lead to maladaptation, undermining resilience efforts (SDG 11, SDG 13).
• Dashed Hopes: The failure to achieve highly-held aspirations can negatively impact long-term well-being (SDG 3). Setting realistic, incremental adaptation goals is crucial.
• Faith and Complacency: Hope vested in external or divine entities without a corresponding sense of personal or collective agency can reduce the motivation to act.
• Hope as Labour: Maintaining hope in the face of systemic barriers requires significant emotional labour, which can be an additional burden on already marginalized communities. This highlights the need for equitable support systems (SDG 10, SDG 16).

6.0 Recommendations for Advancing Knowledge and Action

To operationalize the link between hope and adaptation for the SDGs, further empirical research is required, particularly in communities most vulnerable to climate impacts in the Global South.

6.1 Research Priorities

1. Comparative Field Research: Conduct longitudinal studies in communities with similar climate risk but varying levels of adaptation to assess the correlation between hope and adaptation over time.
2. Pilot Interventions: Use community-based adaptation (CBA) frameworks to pilot interventions designed to leverage hope. This could involve sharing success stories, building consensus on feasible goals, and co-producing adaptation pathways.
3. Cross-Cultural Validation: Develop and validate psychological models and measurement tools that are culturally appropriate for diverse contexts, especially in the Global South.

7.0 Conclusion

This report establishes a strong theoretical case for hope as a vital enabler of climate change adaptation and, by extension, a catalyst for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Hope can spur the collective action needed to reduce climate vulnerability, enhance well-being, and build resilient communities. Advancing research in this area is not only critical for developing more effective climate strategies but is also a moral imperative to empower communities and work towards a just and sustainable future for all.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article on climate change adaptation and the role of hope connects to several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The primary focus is on climate action, but the interconnected nature of the challenges discussed links to goals concerning health, poverty, inequality, food security, and sustainable communities.

1. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • Explanation: This is the most central SDG. The entire article is dedicated to “Adaptation to climate change,” which is a core component of SDG 13. It explicitly defines adaptation as “the process of adjustment to actual and expected climate and its effects” and argues for the urgent need to take action to manage climate impacts.
2. SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being
   • Explanation: The article directly links climate change to negative health outcomes, mentioning “intensification of malnutrition and heat stress, the spread of infectious diseases.” Furthermore, it extensively discusses the psychological dimension, focusing on mental health impacts like “despair,” “climate anxiety, grief, and helplessness,” and positions “hope” as a crucial factor for well-being and a driver for action.
3. SDG 1: No Poverty & SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities
   • Explanation: The article repeatedly emphasizes the disproportionate vulnerability of certain groups. It states that “communities experiencing poverty and marginalization are disproportionately impacted by climate change and have the fewest resources to facilitate adaptation.” This highlights the intersection of climate vulnerability with poverty (SDG 1) and systemic inequalities (SDG 10), particularly focusing on the challenges faced in the “Global South.”
4. SDG 2: Zero Hunger
   • Explanation: The article connects climate change to food security by citing “declines in agricultural yields” and “intensification of malnutrition.” It provides examples of adaptation in the agricultural sector, such as smallholder farmers in Ghana investing in “irrigation systems” and others “shifting to drought-tolerant crops.”
5. SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
   • Explanation: The impacts on human settlements are clearly addressed. The article mentions “damage to infrastructure from extreme weather events” and adaptation strategies like “relocating houses to minimize flood impacts” and updating “building regulations.” The case study of Grantham, Australia, where citizens “relocated their township to a safer site,” directly relates to building resilient communities.
6. SDG 14: Life Below Water & SDG 15: Life on Land
   • Explanation: The article touches upon the degradation of ecosystems due to climate change, mentioning “salination of soils, changes in seasonal weather patterns and erosion of shorelines.” Adaptation strategies discussed, such as “planting mangroves to protect from coastal erosion” and managing “fish stocks,” are directly relevant to protecting marine (SDG 14) and terrestrial (SDG 15) ecosystems.
7. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals
   • Explanation: The article strongly advocates for “collective action,” stating that adaptation is “most effective when implemented at broader scales where resources can be pooled.” It discusses “community-based adaptation (CBA)” and highlights examples of communities working cooperatively, which aligns with the spirit of multi-stakeholder partnerships for sustainable development.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the issues discussed, several specific SDG targets can be identified as directly relevant to the article’s content.

1. Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.
   • Explanation: This target is the core theme of the article. The text is built around the need for “climate change adaptation” and discusses various strategies, from individual actions like shifting crops to collective efforts like repairing sea walls, all aimed at strengthening resilience to climate impacts like droughts, floods, and coastal erosion.
2. Target 1.5: By 2030, build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events and other economic, social and environmental shocks and disasters.
   • Explanation: The article’s focus on “marginalized communities in the Global South” who are “disproportionately impacted by climate change” directly aligns with this target. The discussion of adaptation is framed as a necessary process to reduce the vulnerability of these specific populations.
3. Target 3.4: By 2030, reduce by one third premature mortality from non-communicable diseases through prevention and treatment and promote mental health and well-being.
   • Explanation: The article’s extensive analysis of “hope,” “despair,” “anxiety,” and “grief” in the context of climate change directly addresses the “promote mental health and well-being” component of this target. It argues that psychological states are not just outcomes but also drivers of adaptation.
4. Target 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters and that progressively improve land and soil quality.
   • Explanation: The article provides concrete examples that fit this target, such as “smallholder farmers impacted by drought are collectively investing in irrigation systems” and the strategy of “shifting to drought-tolerant crops” to cope with changing climate conditions.
5. Target 11.5: By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected and substantially decrease the direct economic losses relative to global gross domestic product caused by disasters, including water-related disasters, with a focus on protecting the poor and people in vulnerable situations.
   • Explanation: The article discusses adaptation measures aimed at mitigating disaster impacts, such as “relocating houses to minimize flood impacts,” repairing “damaged sea walls,” and updating “building regulations so that infrastructure can better withstand cyclones,” all of which contribute to this target.
6. Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction and early warning.
   • Explanation: The article mentions that “access to education and trusted climate science communication shapes individual perceptions of climate change risk and the need to adapt.” This highlights the importance of knowledge and capacity building, which is the focus of this target.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

While the article is theoretical and does not provide quantitative data, it mentions or implies several qualitative and quantitative indicators that could be used to measure progress.

1. Levels of Hope and Psychological Well-being
   • Explanation: The article explicitly suggests measuring hope as an indicator of adaptive capacity and well-being. It mentions “Snyder’s Trait Hope Scale” as a tool that “has been widely used to measure personal hope.” This provides a direct, measurable indicator for Target 3.4, tracking changes in hope, anxiety, and despair within communities facing climate change.
2. Implementation of Adaptation Actions
   • Explanation: The article lists numerous adaptation actions. Progress towards Target 13.1 could be measured by tracking the number and scale of these actions, such as the number of households relocated, the area of mangroves planted, the number of communities with updated building codes, or the adoption rate of drought-tolerant crops by farmers.
3. Degree of Collective Action and Community Participation
   • Explanation: The emphasis on “collective action” and “community-based adaptation (CBA)” implies indicators related to social capital and governance for Target 17.17. This could be measured by the number of active community adaptation projects, the level of participation in planning processes, or the amount of resources (financial and labor) pooled by communities.
4. Agricultural Productivity and Resilience
   • Explanation: In relation to Target 2.4, the discussion of “declines in agricultural yields” and shifts to “drought-tolerant crops” implies that indicators such as crop yield stability, diversification of livelihoods, and water-use efficiency in agriculture could be used to measure the success of adaptation strategies.
5. Reduction in Climate-Related Losses and Damages
   • Explanation: An implied indicator for Target 1.5 and 11.5 is the reduction in negative impacts following an extreme weather event. This could be measured by tracking economic losses from damaged infrastructure or homes, and non-economic losses such as displacement or impacts on cultural heritage in vulnerable communities over time.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: nature.com