How climate change poses a national security threat – The Week

Report on Climate Change as a National Security Threat and its Impact on Sustainable Development Goals

Introduction

• Climate change poses a significant threat to global security and directly undermines progress toward the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
• Increasing food insecurity, resource scarcity, and political instability are primary risks that conflict with the foundational aims of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier to Global Stability and SDGs

Correlation Between Temperature Rise and Conflict

• According to the World Economic Forum, an unpredictable climate elevates the risk of violence, presenting a critical setback for SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions).
• Statistical analysis indicates a direct correlation between rising temperatures and conflict:
  1. A one-degree Celsius increase in temperature is associated with an approximate 2% rise in interpersonal violence.
  2. The same temperature increase is linked to a 2.5% to 5% rise in the risk of intergroup conflict.

Resource Scarcity and Displacement

• A projected two-degree Celsius temperature change will precipitate severe resource shortages, directly impacting several SDGs.
  1. Widespread crop failure and food shortages threaten the achievement of SDG 2 (Zero Hunger).
  2. Water scarcity will become prevalent, challenging the objectives of SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation).
• These conditions are expected to generate a significant number of climate refugees, exacerbating regional conflicts and inequalities, which runs counter to the principles of SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities).

Compounding Threats to National Interests and SDG Progress

Exacerbation of Existing Tensions

• Climate change acts as a stressor on critical systems, such as food production, and worsens existing societal tensions. This instability undermines the peaceful societies envisioned in SDG 16.
• The impacts can fuel extremism and terrorism, further complicating national and international security landscapes.

Systemic Risks and Economic Implications

• For the United States, climate change presents compounding threats across multiple sectors essential for sustainable development.
  1. Increased risk of conflict, disease (SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being), and poverty (SDG 1: No Poverty).
  2. Challenges to the operational effectiveness of military forces globally.
• National economic security is increasingly linked to leadership in the innovation and manufacturing of clean energy technologies, a key component of SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 13 (Climate Action).

Governmental Response and Implications for Global Commitments

Historical Acknowledgment and Recent Policy Shifts

• The U.S. government has historically acknowledged climate change as a national security threat, with initial recognition dating back to 1991 and its inclusion as a formal threat in 2008.
• However, the 2025 Annual Threat Assessment from the U.S. intelligence community notably omitted any mention of climate change.

Policy Actions and their Impact on SDGs

• Actions by the Trump administration have directly contradicted commitments to global climate goals.
  1. The administration defunded climate science, reduced foreign aid, and curtailed environmental programs.
  2. The withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement represented a significant setback for SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals) and global efforts to achieve SDG 13 (Climate Action).
• Experts maintain that failing to integrate climate change into national security strategy reduces governmental agility and undermines long-term stability and sustainable development.

Analysis of SDGs in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 2: Zero Hunger: The article directly addresses food insecurity as a consequence of climate change, mentioning that crops may no longer survive and food will be in short supply.
• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation: The article highlights resource scarcity, specifically stating that “water shortages will become widespread” due to a two-degree temperature change.
• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy: The text points to the economic importance for the U.S. to play a “leading role in the innovation and manufacturing of clean energy technologies.”
• SDG 13: Climate Action: This is the central theme of the article, which discusses climate change as an “existential threat” and a “national security risk.” It also mentions the Paris Climate Agreement and the integration (or lack thereof) of climate change into national security policies.
• SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions: The article extensively links climate change to a rise in “interpersonal and intergroup violence,” “political tensions,” “unstable borders,” and “regional conflicts.” It also discusses the role and response of government institutions, such as the U.S. intelligence community.
• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals: The article mentions the U.S. withdrawal from the “Paris Climate Agreement,” a key global partnership aimed at addressing climate change.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

• SDG 2: Zero Hunger

  • Target 2.1: By 2030, end hunger and ensure access by all people, in particular the poor and people in vulnerable situations, including infants, to safe, nutritious and sufficient food all year round. The article connects directly to this by warning of “increasing food insecurity” and that “food will be in short supply.”
  • Target 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters and that progressively improve land and soil quality. The article implies the failure to meet this target by stating that with climate change, “crops now grown can no longer survive.”

• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation

  • Target 6.4: By 2030, substantially increase water-use efficiency across all sectors and ensure sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater to address water scarcity. The article’s warning that “water shortages will become widespread” directly relates to the threat of water scarcity this target aims to prevent.

• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

  • Target 7.a: By 2030, enhance international cooperation to facilitate access to clean energy research and technology, including renewable energy, energy efficiency and advanced and cleaner fossil-fuel technology, and promote investment in energy infrastructure and clean energy technology. The article supports this by stating that a “leading role in the innovation and manufacturing of clean energy technologies” is “vital” for the U.S. economy.

• SDG 13: Climate Action

  • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning. The article discusses this directly by noting the recent absence of climate change from the U.S. intelligence community’s “2025 Annual Threat Assessment” for the first time in a decade, showing a failure to integrate it into national security planning.
  • Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction and early warning. The article highlights a lack of institutional acknowledgement by quoting a professor who says failing to acknowledge the threat makes the security sector “less nimble.”

• SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

  • Target 16.1: Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere. The article directly links climate change to an increase in violence, citing the World Economic Forum’s finding that a one-degree Celsius temperature increase can “increase interpersonal violence by approximately 2%, while intergroup conflict risk” can increase by “2.5% to 5%.”

• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

  • Target 17.14: Enhance policy coherence for sustainable development. The article points to a lack of coherence, describing how the Trump administration denied climate change and withdrew the U.S. from the “Paris Climate Agreement,” undermining global efforts.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• Temperature Increase as an Indicator: The article uses temperature increase as a direct metric for escalating risks. It specifies a “one-degree Celsius uptick” and a “two-degree change” as thresholds for increased violence, crop failure, and water shortages. This can be used to measure proximity to climate-related security tipping points.
• Percentage Increase in Violence: The article provides a specific, quantifiable indicator for SDG Target 16.1. It states that a one-degree temperature increase can lead to a “2% increase in interpersonal violence” and a “2.5% to 5% increase in intergroup conflict risk.” This provides a direct metric for linking climate change to conflict.
• Number of Climate Refugees: The article mentions the emergence of “climate refugees” as a consequence of resource loss and conflict. The number of people displaced due to climate-related events serves as an indicator of the severity of climate impacts and the failure to adapt.
• Inclusion in National Security Assessments: The article points to the inclusion or exclusion of “climate change” in the U.S. intelligence community’s “Annual Threat Assessment” as an indicator of institutional recognition and policy integration (relevant to SDG Target 13.2). Its absence is noted as a negative indicator.
• Funding for Climate Science and Foreign Aid: The article mentions that the Trump administration “defunded climate science” and “cut billions from foreign aid.” The amount of national and international financial flows dedicated to climate action and development aid is a key indicator of commitment.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: theweek.com