Is college enrollment plummeting? – Chalkbeat

Report on Tertiary Education Trends in the United States and Alignment with Sustainable Development Goals

This report analyzes the state of four-year higher education in the United States, contrasting prevailing public narratives with empirical data. The analysis is framed within the context of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 4 (Quality Education), SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities).

Analysis of Economic Accessibility and Value in Relation to SDG 4 and SDG 10

Affordability and Access (SDG 4, Target 4.3)

A primary objective of SDG 4 is to ensure equal access to affordable and quality tertiary education. Contrary to the widespread narrative of soaring costs, data indicates that college affordability has improved in recent years, aligning with the ambitions of SDG 4 and SDG 10 to reduce economic barriers to education.

• Data from the College Board shows that net tuition at private and in-state public universities has trended downward over the last two decades.
• When measured against rising household earnings, the real cost of college has become more manageable, thereby promoting more equitable access.
• The public perception of unaffordability is largely driven by rising sticker prices, which are increasingly disconnected from the actual net price paid by students after financial aid is applied.

Economic Returns and Contribution to Decent Work (SDG 8, Target 8.5)

Higher education is a critical driver for achieving decent work and economic growth. The economic return on a bachelor’s degree remains robust, underscoring its importance in fulfilling the objectives of SDG 8.

• The “college-wage premium” stands at approximately 75%, meaning those with a bachelor’s degree earn significantly more than those without. This premium remains near its highest point in a century.
• This sustained economic benefit demonstrates that higher education continues to be a primary pathway to productive employment and decent work.
• In contrast, Bureau of Labor Statistics projections indicate that occupations with the most new positions for non-degree holders, such as home health aides and fast-food workers, all offer annual earnings below $40,000.
• Rigorous studies consistently find that, on average, students benefit economically from pursuing a four-year degree, which directly contributes to poverty reduction (SDG 1) and economic growth (SDG 8).

Enrollment Patterns and Progress Towards SDG 4

Four-Year Institutions: Stable Enrollment

The narrative of a generational pivot away from four-year colleges is not supported by enrollment data. The stability in enrollment demonstrates a sustained commitment to achieving quality higher education, a cornerstone of SDG 4.

1. For the last several decades, the rate of recent high school graduates enrolling in a four-year college has held steady at just over 40%.
2. Following a minor dip during the pandemic, enrollment for bachelor’s degrees has almost fully recovered and is now only 1% below pre-pandemic levels.
3. Enrollment trends show students are increasingly choosing high-quality institutions, such as flagship public universities, which have seen rising attendance.

Two-Year Institutions: A Contrasting Trend

The overall decline in postsecondary enrollment is primarily concentrated in two-year community colleges, a trend driven by factors distinct from those affecting four-year universities.

• Research indicates that much of the decline in two-year college enrollment is linked to economic trends; when job options are plentiful, community college attendance decreases.
• Concerns over low completion rates at two-year institutions may also be a contributing factor.
• This decline is separate from the trends at four-year institutions and highlights a different set of challenges and opportunities related to achieving SDG 4’s targets for technical and vocational education.

Future Challenges and Implications for Sustainable Development

Despite the current stability, several emerging challenges could impede future progress toward achieving education and economic development goals.

• Economic Pressures: There are indications that real tuition may begin to rise, potentially reversing gains in affordability and hindering progress on SDG 4 and SDG 10.
• Public Perception: A marked decline in public perception of higher education could lead to reduced public funding and depress enrollment, undermining the institutional support necessary for quality education.
• Demographic Shifts: A projected decline in the number of high school graduates due to lower birth rates will create significant enrollment challenges for colleges.
• Technological Disruption: The advancement of generative AI could devalue certain types of white-collar work, potentially altering the economic calculus of a college degree and impacting its role in achieving SDG 8.

These challenges are most likely to impact less-selective institutions, which could exacerbate existing inequalities and create significant obstacles to the universal achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.

SDGs Addressed in the Article

SDG 4: Quality Education

• The article’s primary focus is on tertiary education in the United States, specifically the affordability, accessibility, and value of a college degree. It analyzes enrollment trends, tuition costs, and completion rates, which are central components of ensuring inclusive and equitable quality education.

SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

• The article extensively discusses the economic benefits of higher education. It highlights the “college-wage premium,” which it states is about 75%, linking a bachelor’s degree directly to higher earnings and better job prospects. This connects education to the goal of achieving productive employment and decent work for all.

SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities

• The analysis touches upon inequalities within the higher education system by differentiating between various types of institutions. It contrasts the stable enrollment in four-year colleges with the dramatic decline in two-year community colleges and notes that “flagship state universities have generally seen enrollments rise” while less-selective schools face challenges. This points to unequal access and outcomes in tertiary education.

Specific SDG Targets Identified

Target 4.3: Ensure equal access for all women and men to affordable and quality technical, vocational and tertiary education, including university.

• The article directly addresses this target by examining the affordability and accessibility of college. It states that “net tuition has, if anything, trended down at private and in-state public universities” and that “college tuition appears to have become somewhat more affordable in recent years.” It also analyzes access through enrollment data, noting that “a little more than 40% of recent high school graduates have enrolled in a four-year college.”

Target 4.4: Substantially increase the number of youth and adults who have relevant skills… for employment, decent jobs and entrepreneurship.

• This target is relevant as the article evaluates the value of a college degree in the job market. It argues that a bachelor’s degree provides relevant skills for higher-paying jobs, citing that the “college-wage premium… stands at about 75%.” It contrasts this with non-degreed occupations, where the “occupations with the most new positions all earn under $40,000 annually,” reinforcing the link between higher education and skills for decent employment.

Target 8.6: Substantially reduce the proportion of youth not in employment, education or training (NEET).

• The article’s discussion of enrollment trends is a direct measure related to this target. It provides data on the percentage of high school graduates enrolling in four-year colleges and tracks the significant decline in two-year college enrollment. The article explains that this decline is partly driven by economic trends, where “When job options are plentiful, community college is less appealing,” directly linking the choice between education and employment for youth.

Indicators for Measuring Progress

Enrollment and Completion Rates

• Four-year college enrollment rate: The article mentions that for the last few decades, “a little more than 40% of recent high school graduates have enrolled in a four-year college.” It also notes that post-pandemic, the number of people pursuing bachelor’s degrees is “just 1% below pre-pandemic levels.” These figures can be used as indicators to measure access to tertiary education (Target 4.3).
• Two-year college enrollment rate: The article highlights a significant decline, stating that “attendance at these schools’ has been falling consistently since 2010.” This serves as an indicator of participation in vocational and technical education.
• College completion rate: The article implies this is a key indicator of quality by stating that “about one-third of college enrollees do not obtain” a degree and that completion rates for two-year programs are “quite low.”

Economic and Financial Metrics

• Net tuition cost: The article refers to data from the College Board showing that “net tuition has, if anything, trended down at private and in-state public universities,” which is a direct indicator of affordability (Target 4.3).
• College-wage premium: This is explicitly mentioned as a key indicator of the economic return on education. The article quantifies it, stating it “stands at about 75%,” which measures the relevance of skills for decent work (Targets 4.4 and 8.5).
• Annual earnings by education level: The article uses Bureau of Labor Statistics projections that non-degreed occupations with the most new jobs “all earn under $40,000 annually” as an indicator to contrast the economic outcomes of those with and without a college degree.

Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: chalkbeat.org