GDP (Advance Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2025 – Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (.gov)

U.S. Economic Performance in Q4 2025: A Sustainable Development Perspective

Overview of GDP Growth

Real gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October to December), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). This growth follows a robust 4.4 percent increase in the third quarter of 2025. The release was delayed due to the government shutdown in October–November 2025.

Key Contributors to GDP Growth

The increase in real GDP was primarily driven by:

1. Consumer Spending: Growth in services, especially health care and international travel, contributed significantly.
2. Investment: Increases in intellectual property products, private inventory investment, and equipment, notably in research and development and information processing equipment.

These positive contributions were partly offset by decreases in:

• Government spending, particularly federal government consumption expenditures.
• Exports, influenced by adjustments in the treatment of precious metals used as investment.

Imports decreased, which positively affected GDP calculations.

Price Index and Inflation Measures

• The price index for gross domestic purchases increased by 3.7 percent in Q4 2025, up from 3.4 percent in Q3.
• The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.9 percent, slightly higher than the 2.8 percent increase in Q3.
• Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased by 2.7 percent, a slight decrease from 2.9 percent in the previous quarter.

Annual GDP Performance for 2025

Real GDP increased by 2.2 percent in 2025 compared to 2024, reflecting sustained growth in consumer spending and investment. The price index for gross domestic purchases rose by 2.6 percent, while the PCE price index also increased by 2.6 percent, consistent with the previous year.

Alignment with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

• The increase in consumer spending on health care services supports SDG 8 by promoting economic growth and employment in the health sector.
• Investment in intellectual property and research and development fosters innovation, a key driver of sustainable economic growth.
• Despite the government shutdown, efforts to maintain economic stability contribute to sustained growth and decent work opportunities.

SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

• Growth in equipment investment, especially in information processing equipment, aligns with SDG 9 by enhancing infrastructure and fostering innovation.
• Increased research and development investment supports technological progress and sustainable industrialization.

SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being

• Increased consumer spending on health care services, including outpatient and hospital care, contributes to improved health outcomes and well-being.

SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production

• The decrease in imports and adjustments in export data reflect efforts toward accurate economic accounting and sustainable trade practices.

Technical Notes and Data Considerations

Impact of Federal Government Shutdown

The partial federal government shutdown from October 1 to November 12, 2025, led to furloughs and reduced federal government services, subtracting approximately 1.0 percentage point from real GDP growth in Q4. However, back pay to furloughed employees mitigated impacts on current-dollar federal compensation.

Data Imputation for Missing Price Indexes

Due to the shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was unable to collect October 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The BEA imputed missing price indexes by averaging September and November CPI data, ensuring continuity and reliability in inflation measurement.

Sources of GDP Changes

• Consumer Spending: Increased services, particularly health care and international travel.
• Investment: Growth in intellectual property products (R&D), private inventories, and equipment (computers and peripherals).
• Government Spending: Declined due to reduced federal expenditures during the shutdown.
• Exports: Adjusted for investment-related precious metals transactions.

Summary of Key Economic Indicators (Q4 2025)

Upcoming Releases and Data Access

• Next GDP release (Second Estimate for Q4 2025 and Year 2025): March 13, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
• BEA has modernized its news release format to include direct links to interactive data tables, enhancing accessibility and transparency.
• Historical and detailed data are available via BEA’s Interactive Data Application and Data Archive.

Conclusion

The U.S. economy demonstrated moderate growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, supported by consumer spending and investment, despite challenges such as the federal government shutdown. These economic activities contribute to multiple Sustainable Development Goals, including promoting sustained economic growth, innovation, health, and responsible consumption. Continued monitoring and data transparency remain essential for informed policy-making aligned with sustainable development.

1. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Addressed or Connected

1. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
   • The article discusses real GDP growth, consumer spending, investment, government spending, and employment data, all related to economic growth and labor market conditions.
2. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure
   • Increases in investment in intellectual property products, research and development (R&D), equipment, and manufacturing indicate innovation and industrial development.
3. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals
   • The article references data sharing and collaboration between government agencies (BEA, BLS, Census Bureau), reflecting partnerships and data transparency.

2. Specific Targets Under Those SDGs Identified

1. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
   • Target 8.1: Sustain per capita economic growth in accordance with national circumstances.
   • Target 8.3: Promote development-oriented policies that support productive activities, decent job creation, entrepreneurship, creativity, and innovation.
   • Target 8.5: Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all women and men.
2. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure
   • Target 9.5: Enhance scientific research, upgrade technological capabilities, and encourage innovation.
   • Target 9.2: Promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and, by 2030, raise industry’s share of employment and GDP.
3. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals
   • Target 17.18: Enhance capacity-building support to developing countries to increase significantly the availability of high-quality, timely and reliable data.

3. Indicators Mentioned or Implied to Measure Progress

1. SDG 8 Indicators
   • 8.1.1: Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita.
   • 8.5.2: Unemployment rate, by sex, age, and persons with disabilities.
   • Consumer spending growth rates and investment rates as economic activity measures.
2. SDG 9 Indicators
   • 9.5.1: Research and development expenditure as a proportion of GDP.
   • Investment in intellectual property products and equipment as proxies for innovation and industrial capacity.
3. SDG 17 Indicators
   • 17.18.1: Proportion of countries that have national statistical legislation that complies with the Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics.
   • Availability and accessibility of timely economic data (e.g., GDP estimates, price indexes) as shown by BEA’s data releases and improvements.

4. Table: SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: bea.gov