The last 3 years were the hottest ever recorded. Here’s why we may look back at them as some of the coolest we remember – Fortune

Climate Change Report 2025-2026: Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Climate Dynamics

Recent studies have highlighted significant disruptions in Earth’s energy balance, a critical factor influencing global climate. The transition from a rare three-year La Niña (2020-2022) to El Niño conditions (2023-2024) has accelerated Earth’s energy uptake and temperature rise. This phenomenon directly impacts SDG 13: Climate Action by exacerbating climate variability and extreme weather events.

Declining polar ice, which plays a vital role in reflecting sunlight, has further disturbed this balance. The reduction in sea ice exposes dark ocean surfaces that absorb more sunlight, creating a feedback loop that accelerates warming. Notably, 2025 recorded the lowest Arctic winter sea ice peak and the third-lowest Antarctic minimum extent, posing risks to marine ecosystems and coastal communities, thereby affecting SDG 14: Life Below Water and SDG 15: Life on Land.

Air Pollution and Its Dual Impact

Sulfate aerosol pollution from coal combustion and shipping has masked some greenhouse gas warming by reflecting sunlight, creating a temporary cooling effect. However, this pollution is responsible for approximately 8 million deaths annually due to lung diseases, highlighting a critical public health challenge linked to SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being.

Recent reductions in sulfate aerosols, particularly through China’s air quality initiatives and international shipping regulations, have decreased sulfur emissions by 40% over 20 years and 85% from large ships since 2020. While this reduction has contributed to a 0.13°C increase in global temperatures, it represents progress towards cleaner air and healthier populations, advancing SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities.

Accelerated Global Warming and Extreme Weather

Overall, human activities are warming the planet at an unprecedented rate of approximately 0.27°C per decade. This accelerated warming fuels extreme weather events such as flash floods, heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and coastal flooding, which threaten human lives, infrastructure, and economies. These impacts underscore the urgency of implementing SDG 13: Climate Action and integrating resilience into development planning.

Predictions and Challenges for 2026

Temperature Outlook and Climate Variability

Climate models forecast that 2026 will be as warm as 2025, contingent on a 60% likelihood of a Pacific El Niño event. Despite regional cold spells, global temperatures remain elevated, with January 2026 ranking as the fifth-warmest on record. These trends emphasize the need for sustained climate monitoring and adaptive strategies aligned with SDG 13: Climate Action.

Energy Demand and Renewable Transition

Global economic growth projected at 3.3% in 2026 is expected to increase electricity demand by approximately 3.6% annually through 2030. Although renewable energy usage is expanding rapidly, it is insufficient to meet rising demand, leading to continued reliance on fossil fuels. This trajectory poses challenges to achieving SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy and SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production.

Environmental Risks and Tipping Points

The continued increase in greenhouse gas emissions and the declining capacity of oceans and land to absorb carbon dioxide heighten the risk of crossing critical climate tipping points. Potential consequences include glacier loss, disruption of Atlantic Ocean circulation, permafrost thaw, and coral reef degradation, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services essential to SDG 14: Life Below Water and SDG 15: Life on Land.

Recommendations for Sustainable Development

1. Accelerate Decarbonization: Implement policies to reduce fossil fuel dependence and promote renewable energy to meet SDG 7 and mitigate climate change impacts under SDG 13.
2. Enhance Air Quality Measures: Continue reducing air pollutants to improve public health outcomes in line with SDG 3 and urban sustainability goals of SDG 11.
3. Strengthen Climate Resilience: Develop adaptive infrastructure and disaster risk reduction strategies to protect vulnerable populations, supporting SDG 1: No Poverty and SDG 11.
4. Protect Ecosystems: Preserve polar ice, marine, and terrestrial ecosystems to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem services critical to SDG 14 and SDG 15.
5. Promote Global Cooperation: Foster international collaboration for climate action and sustainable development to achieve the integrated objectives of the SDGs.

Conclusion

The year 2025 marked a significant milestone in global warming, with human-induced factors accelerating climate change and its associated risks. The projections for 2026 indicate continued challenges in balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability. Addressing these issues through the lens of the Sustainable Development Goals is imperative to safeguard planetary health and human well-being for current and future generations.

Source: Adapted from Michael Wysession, Professor of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Washington University in St. Louis. Original article published by The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

1. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Addressed or Connected

1. SDG 13: Climate Action – The article discusses global warming, greenhouse gas emissions, and climate change impacts such as extreme weather events and melting polar ice.
2. SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being – Air pollution from sulfate aerosols causing about 8 million deaths annually is highlighted, linking to health impacts.
3. SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy – The article mentions global electricity demand growth, renewable energy use, and fossil fuel consumption.
4. SDG 14: Life Below Water – Declining sea ice and warming oceans affecting marine ecosystems are discussed.
5. SDG 15: Life on Land – The article refers to land’s decreasing ability to absorb carbon dioxide and risks to glaciers, permafrost, and coral reefs.

2. Specific Targets Under Those SDGs Identified

1. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters.
   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into policies and planning.
   • Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness, and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and early warning.
2. SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being
   • Target 3.9: Reduce the number of deaths and illnesses from hazardous chemicals and air, water, and soil pollution and contamination.
3. SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
   • Target 7.2: Increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.
   • Target 7.3: Double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency.
4. SDG 14: Life Below Water
   • Target 14.2: Sustainably manage and protect marine and coastal ecosystems to avoid significant adverse impacts.
5. SDG 15: Life on Land
   • Target 15.1: Ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems.
   • Target 15.3: Combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil.

3. Indicators Mentioned or Implied to Measure Progress

1. SDG 13 Indicators
   • Global average temperature increase (0.5 F / 0.27 C per decade warming rate).
   • Frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (flash floods, heat waves, droughts, wildfires, coastal flooding).
   • Greenhouse gas emissions levels and trends (e.g., fossil fuel CO2 emissions, sulfate aerosol pollution reductions).
   • Sea ice extent and minimum levels (Arctic and Antarctic sea ice records).
2. SDG 3 Indicators
   • Number of deaths caused by air pollution (8 million deaths per year from lung diseases due to sulfate aerosols).
3. SDG 7 Indicators
   • Share of renewable energy in total electricity generation.
   • Growth rate of electricity demand (3.6% per year through 2030).
   • Reduction in sulfur emissions from shipping (85% reduction since 2020).
4. SDG 14 and 15 Indicators
   • Extent of sea ice and health of marine ecosystems.
   • Carbon absorption capacity of ocean and land.
   • Indicators related to glacier mass, permafrost thawing, and coral reef health.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

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