NDCs 3.0: Missing the Mark on Ambition and Equity – Climate Action Network

Report on Developed Nations’ NDCs 3.0 and Alignment with Sustainable Development Goals

Introduction

This report provides an analysis of the third generation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs 3.0) submitted by developed countries. Based on a review by the Climate Action Network (CAN) International, it assesses the alignment of these climate plans with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target and their implications for the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The findings indicate a significant failure by developed nations to meet their responsibilities, thereby jeopardizing the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), most notably SDG 13 (Climate Action).

Executive Summary of Findings

The analysis reveals that every developed economy’s NDC fails to meet three critical tests for a fair and 1.5°C-aligned pathway. This lack of ambition and equity represents a direct threat to the integrated nature of the SDGs.

Critical Shortfalls in Climate Ambition (SDG 13, SDG 7)

• Instead of phasing out fossil fuels in line with SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), most developed nations continue to expand or subsidise them.
• Climate finance commitments, crucial for global partnership under SDG 17, are being deferred and diluted rather than honoured.
• Just Transition frameworks, essential for achieving SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities), are largely symbolic and lack substantive measures.

Disregard for Global Partnerships and Equity (SDG 10, SDG 17)

A significant number of G20 countries, which account for a majority of historical and current emissions, have failed to submit adequate or timely NDCs. This inaction undermines the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC) and hinders the global cooperation required by SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).

Detailed Analysis of NDC Deficiencies

Failure to Transition to Affordable and Clean Energy (SDG 7)

The submitted NDCs demonstrate a profound disconnect from the objectives of SDG 7, which calls for a transition to sustainable energy systems.

• No Fossil Fuel Phase-out: No fossil-fuel-producing developed country has included a timeline to end coal, oil, or gas production. This is in direct contradiction to the mandate from COP28.
• Continued Subsidies: No country providing fossil fuel subsidies has committed to their complete phase-out.
• Over-reliance on Unproven Technologies: Every country plans to use carbon offsets or risky technologies like carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS), shifting focus from eliminating production to mitigating emissions from continued production.

Inadequate Climate Finance and Support for Vulnerable Nations (SDG 1, SDG 10, SDG 17)

The failure to provide adequate climate finance severely compromises the ability of developing nations to pursue climate action and achieve goals related to poverty, inequality, and sustainable development.

• Finance Under-delivered: No developed country has outlined how it will meet its fair share of climate finance obligations. Specific volumes are largely absent beyond 2025.
• Adaptation Finance Neglected: No country commits to increasing international adaptation finance, which is critical for protecting vulnerable communities and securing progress on SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 2 (Zero Hunger).
• Loss and Damage Fund Ignored: Contributions to the UNFCCC Fund for responding to Loss and Damage are not referenced in the NDCs, ignoring a key mechanism for climate justice.

Neglect of Just Transition and Social Equity Principles (SDG 8, SDG 10, SDG 16)

While the term “just transition” is mentioned, its application within the NDCs is superficial and fails to address the core tenets of SDG 8 (Decent Work), SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities), and SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions).

• Symbolic References: The concept is often mentioned only once, without accompanying implementation measures, social protection, or provisions for decent work.
• Narrow Focus: For developed countries, just transition measures are limited primarily to skills training, overlooking broader social and economic inequalities.
• Indigenous Rights Overlooked: No NDC explicitly commits to upholding Free, Prior and Informed Consent or implementing the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, undermining principles of justice and inclusion central to SDG 16.

Recommendations for Aligning NDCs with the 2030 Agenda

To rectify these shortfalls and realign climate action with the Sustainable Development Goals, a series of urgent actions are required from developed countries and at the upcoming COP30.

Required Revisions for Developed Country NDCs

1. Set Fossil Fuel Phase-out Plans: Establish whole-of-economy, time-bound plans to phase out fossil fuels by 2040 at the latest, directly supporting SDG 7 and SDG 13.
2. Commit to Global Goals: Outline clear contributions to global targets on renewable energy, energy efficiency, and halting deforestation by 2030, in line with SDG 7 and SDG 15 (Life on Land).
3. Embed Just Transition and Human Rights: Integrate comprehensive just transition and resilience measures that uphold human rights, address inequalities, and enable sustainable development, advancing SDG 8, SDG 10, and SDG 16.
4. Provide Scaled-up Climate Finance: Commit to new, additional, and grant-based finance for mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage, and just transition, fulfilling the partnership obligations of SDG 17.

Proposed Global Response Plan at COP30

COP30 must conclude with a strong global response plan built on equity to address the ambition gap.

1. Acknowledge the Ambition Gap: The COP30 outcome must highlight how current gaps perpetuate injustice and ecosystem destruction, undermining the entire 2030 Agenda.
2. Formal Review of NDCs: Parties must formally discuss the NDC and Biennial Transparency Report (BTR) synthesis reports.
3. Develop a Fossil Fuel Transition Schedule: Agree on a process to create a global schedule for transitioning away from fossil fuels in line with equity and CBDR-RC.
4. Operationalise Just Transition: The Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP) must agree on principles and establish the Belém Action Mechanism for Just Transition (BAM) to support NDC implementation.
5. Deliver on Climate Finance: COP30 must provide clarity on the provision of quality climate finance at scale, as a key enabler for all other goals.
6. Enhance National Frameworks: Parties, particularly developed countries, must strengthen national laws and policies in accordance with equity and human rights to accelerate implementation.
7. Strengthen the Action Agenda: The COP30 Action Agenda should present concrete global initiatives to close implementation gaps in a measurable and accountable manner.

Analysis of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article addresses several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through its critique of developed countries’ national climate plans (NDCs). The primary connections are as follows:

• SDG 13: Climate Action
  
  This is the central theme of the article. The entire text revolves around the inadequacy of NDCs in combating the climate crisis, the need to align with a 1.5°C pathway, and the failure to meet commitments under the Paris Agreement. The article explicitly discusses mitigation, adaptation, and climate finance, which are core components of SDG 13.
• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
  
  The article heavily criticizes the continued subsidization and expansion of fossil fuels, calling for a “whole-of-economy, time-bound fossil fuel phase-out.” It also calls on countries to outline their contributions to “global goals on renewable energy and energy efficiency,” directly linking to the goal of transitioning to sustainable energy systems.
• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals
  
  The article highlights the failure of developed countries to meet their international commitments, particularly regarding climate finance. The call for “new, additional and grant-based finance for mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage” and the criticism that developed countries “defer and dilute” their finance commitments underscore the importance of global partnerships and the responsibility of wealthier nations to support others.
• SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities
  
  The principles of “equity,” “fair shares,” and “Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC)” are repeatedly emphasized. The article argues that those “most responsible for the climate crisis” are not taking sufficient action, thereby perpetuating global inequalities. It calls for NDCs to address inequalities “both within and between countries.”
• SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
  
  The concept of a “Just Transition” is a key focus. The article criticizes that references to it are “largely symbolic” and lack concrete measures for “social protection, social dialogue, or decent work.” It calls for embedding just transition measures to protect workers and create green jobs, which is central to SDG 8.
• SDG 15: Life on Land
  
  The article includes a specific call for revised NDCs to include “measures to halt and reverse deforestation and forest degradation by 2030.” This directly addresses the protection and restoration of terrestrial ecosystems, a primary objective of SDG 15.
• SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions
  
  The article’s call for NDCs to uphold human rights and its criticism that none “explicitly commit to upholding Free, Prior and Informed Consent or implementing the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples” connects to the goal of promoting just, peaceful, and inclusive societies.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

The article’s demands and criticisms align with several specific SDG targets:

1. Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning.
   
   The entire analysis is a critique of national climate plans (NDCs) and calls for them to be strengthened and aligned with a 1.5°C pathway, which is a direct reflection of this target.
2. Target 13.a: Implement the commitment undertaken by developed-country parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
   
   The article’s focus on the failure of developed countries to deliver on climate finance commitments (“instead of honouring finance commitments, they defer and dilute them”) is a direct reference to this target.
3. Target 7.2: By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.
   
   This is implied in the call for NDCs to “Outline contributions to the global goals on renewable energy and energy efficiency.”
4. Target 7.a: By 2030, enhance international cooperation to facilitate access to clean energy research and technology.
   
   The criticism of developed countries for not providing adequate climate finance, which is essential for technology transfer and clean energy deployment in developing nations, relates to this target. The article also criticizes the reliance on “unproven and risky technologies such as carbon capture,” suggesting a need for better technological pathways.
5. Target 8.8: Protect labour rights and promote safe and secure working environments for all workers.
   
   The call for a “Just Transition” that is not merely symbolic and includes “social protection, social dialogue, or decent work” directly supports this target.
6. Target 10.6: Ensure enhanced representation and voice for developing countries in decision-making in global international economic and financial institutions.
   
   The emphasis on “equity” and “CBDR-RC” and the call for developed countries to fulfill their “fair shares responsibilities” advocate for a more equitable global system, which is the spirit of this target.
7. Target 15.2: By 2020, promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation, restore degraded forests and substantially increase afforestation and reforestation globally.
   
   The article makes a direct call for NDCs to include measures to “halt and reverse deforestation and forest degradation by 2030,” aligning perfectly with this target’s objective.
8. Target 17.3: Mobilize additional financial resources for developing countries from multiple sources.
   
   The demand for developed countries to “commit to providing new, additional and grant-based finance for mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage” speaks directly to this target.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

The article mentions or implies several quantitative and qualitative indicators that can be used to measure progress:

• Indicator for Target 13.2: Number of countries with strengthened NDCs aligned with a 1.5°C pathway. The article’s central demand is for leaders to “fix NDCs that are not in line with countries’ fair shares responsibilities.”
• Indicator for Target 13.a / 17.3: Volume of climate finance provided by developed countries. The article explicitly states, “Just two developed countries (Canada and the UK) specify climate finance volumes beyond 2025,” indicating that the amount of committed and delivered finance is a key metric. It also notes that “none outline how they will meet their fair share obligations.”
• Indicator for Target 7.2: Existence of a time-bound fossil fuel phase-out plan. The article criticizes that “every fossil-fuel-producing developed country omits a timeline to end coal, oil, or gas production” and calls for a phase-out “by 2040 at the latest for developed countries.”
• Indicator (related to Target 7): Amount of fossil fuel subsidies. The article notes that “most continue to subsidise or expand” fossil fuels and that “None of the countries that currently provide fossil fuel subsidies have committed to phasing them out completely.” Progress would be measured by the reduction and elimination of these subsidies.
• Indicator for Target 8.8: Inclusion of concrete implementation measures for a just transition in NDCs. The article implies this indicator by stating that the phrase “is not accompanied by implementation measures, the need to address inequalities, or essential concepts such as social protection, social dialogue, or decent work.”
• Indicator for Target 16 (and others): Number of NDCs that explicitly commit to upholding Free, Prior and Informed Consent (FPIC) for Indigenous Peoples. The article points out that “none explicitly commit to upholding” FPIC, making its inclusion a clear measure of progress.
• Indicator for Target 15.2: National plans and commitments to halt and reverse deforestation. The call for NDCs to include these measures implies that their presence and specificity are key indicators.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: climatenetwork.org