PP97: Adapting to a changing climate – Afrobarometer

Report on Climate Change in Africa and its Intersection with Sustainable Development Goals

1.0 The Imperative for Climate Action in Africa

Urgent scientific warnings underscore the accelerating pace of climate change, with severe manifestations across the African continent. This situation directly threatens the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 13 (Climate Action). Recent climatic events highlight this crisis:

• Tropical Cyclone Freddy in Southern Africa
• Severe and prolonged droughts impacting agriculture and water access
• Record-breaking heatwaves across the Sahel
• Catastrophic floods leading to displacement and infrastructure damage

These events create significant setbacks for SDG 1 (No Poverty), SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), and SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation) by disrupting livelihoods, food systems, and access to essential resources.

2.0 Challenges to Sustainable Development and Climate Policy

2.1 Global and Regional Political Context

The global political landscape presents obstacles to unified climate action, impacting SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals). While African leaders advocate for financial support for green transitions, internal divisions persist regarding the pace of this shift, directly affecting progress on SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy).

1. Progressive Nations: Countries like Ethiopia, Kenya, Egypt, and South Africa are making strides in adopting renewable energy sources.
2. Reluctant Nations: Nations with significant fossil fuel reserves, such as Nigeria and Senegal, show hesitation in committing to a rapid green-energy transition.

2.2 Disproportionate Impacts on Vulnerable Sectors

Africa’s adaptation challenge is more immediate than mitigation, with profound implications for several SDGs.

• Agriculture (SDG 2, SDG 8): Approximately 80% of sub-Saharan farmers are smallholders who are highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture. Climate variability severely affects crop yields, threatening food security and economic stability, undermining SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth).
• Urbanization (SDG 11): Rapid urbanization often leads to informal settlements in high-risk areas like floodplains. This trend, coupled with a lack of green spaces, exacerbates the effects of floods and heatwaves, directly challenging the aims of SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities).

3.0 Public Opinion on Climate Change: Afrobarometer Survey Findings

3.1 Climate Literacy and Awareness

Public understanding is critical for building political will for climate action. Survey data from 38 African countries reveals significant variations in climate change literacy, which has implications for SDG 4 (Quality Education) and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities).

• Literacy rates have increased since 2016/2018, especially in West Africa.
• Awareness is highest in island nations, which are acutely vulnerable.
• Disparities exist, with higher literacy among men, urban residents, and those with greater wealth and education, highlighting inequalities that must be addressed to achieve SDG 5 (Gender Equality) and SDG 10.

3.2 Lived Experiences and Adaptation Strategies

The impacts of climate change are widely felt, prompting citizen-led adaptation efforts that align with the resilience-building targets of the SDGs.

1. Primary Impact: Drought and crop failure are the most commonly reported effects, directly impacting SDG 1 and SDG 2.
2. Adaptation Measures: Citizens are actively adapting by:
   • Changing water sources or reducing water use (relevant to SDG 6).
   • Altering agricultural practices and food consumption (relevant to SDG 2).
   • Reducing or adjusting outdoor work hours (relevant to SDG 8).

4.0 Public Mandate for Enhanced Climate Action

4.1 Support for National and International Intervention

African citizens demonstrate strong support for comprehensive climate action, creating a mandate for governments to pursue policies aligned with SDG 13.

• There is an overwhelming belief that developed countries should provide financial and technical assistance to poorer nations, reinforcing the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities central to SDG 17.
• Citizens also demand proactive measures from their own governments, including investments in resilient infrastructure and mitigation policies, even if they incur costs.

4.2 Shifting Perceptions of Responsibility

While national governments are seen as primarily responsible for climate action, there is a growing trend of holding wealthy, developed nations accountable. This shift underscores the importance of global cooperation and equitable burden-sharing, a core tenet of SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals), to effectively address the climate crisis and ensure a sustainable future for the continent.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article discusses several interconnected issues, primarily centered on climate change in Africa, which touch upon a range of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The following SDGs are addressed:

• SDG 13: Climate Action: This is the central theme of the article. It directly discusses climate change impacts like extreme weather events, the need for mitigation and adaptation, international climate agreements, and public awareness.
• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy: The article explicitly mentions the debate around transitioning to “green energies” and “renewable energy sources,” contrasting countries making progress (Ethiopia, Kenya) with those reluctant due to oil and gas reserves (Nigeria, Senegal).
• SDG 2: Zero Hunger: The text highlights the vulnerability of the agricultural sector, mentioning that “less predictable rainfall severely affects the yields” of smallholder farmers and that “crop failure” is a commonly reported impact of climate change.
• SDG 1: No Poverty: The article points out the disproportionate impact of climate change on African nations and vulnerable populations, noting that “rural, poorer, and agricultural communities” are particularly affected and that climate change threatens the “livelihoods” of farmers.
• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities: The article addresses the risks associated with “rapid urbanisation,” such as the growth of “informal settlements in floodplains and on steep unstable hillsides,” which places residents in the path of floods and landslides.
• SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation: The impacts of “severe drought” and “catastrophic floods” are mentioned. The article also notes that as an adaptation strategy, people are “changing water sources or reducing water use.”
• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals: The text discusses the global political landscape, including the retreat of major emitters from climate commitments, the demand by African leaders for “additional financial support” from developed countries, and the assignment of responsibility to both national governments and “wealthy nations.”

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the issues discussed, several specific SDG targets can be identified:

1. Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.
   • Explanation: The article emphasizes that “adaptation is the more immediate challenge in Africa” and describes impacts like “tropical cyclone Freddy,” “severe drought,” “heatwaves,” and “floods.” It also details how citizens are adapting by “changing water sources,” “reducing outdoor work hours,” and “altering agricultural and food-consumption practices.”
2. Target 13.3: Improve education, awareness-raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction and early warning.
   • Explanation: A significant portion of the article is dedicated to the importance of “understanding public opinion about climate change.” It presents findings from Afrobarometer surveys on “rates of climate-change awareness and climate-change literacy” and argues this is essential for designing “effective interventions” and building “political will.”
3. Target 7.2: By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.
   • Explanation: The article directly discusses the “transition to green energies,” highlighting that countries like “Ethiopia, Kenya, Egypt, and South Africa have made meaningful progress toward adopting renewable energy sources,” while others with fossil fuel reserves are more reluctant.
4. Target 2.4: By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters and that progressively improve land and soil quality.
   • Explanation: The article describes how smallholder farms are “highly dependent on rainwater” and how “less predictable rainfall severely affects the yields.” It also mentions “crop failure” as a major impact, directly linking climate change to the resilience of agricultural practices.
5. Target 11.5: By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected and substantially decrease the direct economic losses relative to global gross domestic product caused by disasters, including water-related disasters, with a focus on protecting the poor and people in vulnerable situations.
   • Explanation: The article warns that “rapid urbanisation on the continent leads to growing informal settlements in floodplains and on steep unstable hillsides, placing those residents in the direct path of floods, storm surges, and landslides.”
6. Target 1.5: By 2030, build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events and other economic, social and environmental shocks and disasters.
   • Explanation: The article states that African nations face “disproportionate climate impacts” and that adaptation strategies are particularly prevalent among “rural, poorer, and agricultural communities,” underscoring their heightened vulnerability.
7. Target 17.7: Promote the development, transfer, dissemination and diffusion of environmentally sound technologies to developing countries on favourable terms, including on concessional and preferential terms, as mutually agreed.
   • Explanation: This is implied through the demand from African leaders for “additional financial support to finance green-energy projects,” which are a form of environmentally sound technology.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Yes, the article mentions or implies several indicators that can be used to measure progress:

• Indicator for Target 13.3: The article explicitly refers to “rates of climate-change awareness and climate-change literacy” as measured by “Afrobarometer’s latest round of public-opinion surveys.” It notes that these rates have “increased in many countries since 2016/2018” and vary by demographics (gender, urban/rural, wealth, education).
• Indicator for Target 13.1: The prevalence of adaptation strategies among the population is an implied indicator. The article states that “substantial portions of the population have adapted by changing water sources or reducing water use, reducing or adjusting outdoor work hours, and/or altering agricultural and food-consumption practices.” Measuring the percentage of the population adopting these measures would indicate progress in adaptive capacity.
• Indicator for Target 7.2: The progress of countries in “adopting renewable energy sources” is a direct indicator. While no specific percentages are given, the article qualitatively measures this by contrasting countries making “meaningful progress” with those that are “more reluctant to commit to the green-energy transition.”
• Indicator for Target 2.4: The frequency and severity of “crop failure” due to climate change is mentioned as one of the “most commonly reported effects.” Tracking this metric would serve as an indicator of agricultural vulnerability and the need for more resilient practices.
• Indicator for Target 17.7: The amount of “additional financial support” provided by developed countries to African nations for “green-energy projects” is an implied financial indicator for partnership and technology transfer.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: afrobarometer.org