Record number of referrals made to Prevent anti-terrorism scheme – BBC

Analysis of UK Anti-Terrorism Referrals and Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary: Record Referrals and Institutional Challenges

Data for the year ending March 2025 indicates a record 8,778 referrals were made to the UK government’s Prevent anti-terror programme, a 27% increase from the previous year’s 6,922. This surge presents a significant challenge to the realisation of Sustainable Development Goal 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions), which aims to significantly reduce all forms of violence and build effective, accountable, and inclusive institutions at all levels. The increase follows an inquiry into the killing of three children in Southport, a case which has highlighted potential weaknesses in the programme’s institutional framework and its ability to prevent violence effectively.

Demographic and Ideological Profile of Referrals

The profile of individuals referred to the programme underscores the complex nature of radicalisation and its intersection with multiple SDGs. The breakdown of concerns highlights a shift away from traditionally defined extremism, demanding a broader approach to promoting peaceful and inclusive societies.

Ideological Concerns

1. No Identified Ideology: 56% of referrals were for individuals with no specific ideological affiliation, indicating that drivers of violent fixation may be linked to broader societal issues addressed by goals such as SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities) and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities).
2. Right-Wing Ideology: This accounted for 21% of referrals, remaining the second most common concern.
3. Islamist Extremism: This represented 10% of referrals.

Age Demographics and Link to SDG 4

A significant majority of referrals involved children and young people, highlighting the critical role of education in fostering peace and resilience.

• Children aged 11-15 constituted the largest group at 36% of referrals where age was known.
• Individuals aged 16-17 followed at 13%.
• A total of 345 referrals (4%) were for children under the age of 10.

These statistics emphasise the importance of SDG 4 (Quality Education), particularly Target 4.7, which calls for education that promotes a culture of peace, non-violence, and global citizenship. The legal duty placed on schools to identify individuals at risk positions the education sector as a key partner in achieving both SDG 4 and SDG 16.

Intersection with Public Health and Well-being (SDG 3)

The data revealed that approximately one-third of referred individuals had at least one mental health condition or were neurodiverse. This finding establishes a direct link between public safety initiatives and SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being).

• The prevalence of mental health concerns among referrals underscores the necessity of integrating health and well-being support (Target 3.4) into violence prevention strategies.
• A holistic approach that addresses both security and health is essential for building resilient communities and achieving sustainable peace.

Institutional Response and Alignment with SDG 16

The inquiry into the case of Axel Rudakubana, who was referred to Prevent three times before carrying out the Southport killings, has prompted a critical review of the programme’s effectiveness. An urgent review found his case was closed “prematurely,” leading to the resignation of Prevent’s head, Michael Stewart.

• This event highlights challenges in achieving Target 16.6 of developing effective, accountable, and transparent institutions.
• The subsequent increase in referrals, noted by the independent Prevent commissioner Lord David Anderson KC, suggests heightened awareness but also points to the strain on institutional capacity.
• Strengthening institutions like Prevent to be more responsive, inclusive, and accountable is fundamental to upholding the rule of law (Target 16.3) and ensuring peaceful societies.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

  The article directly discusses the UK’s anti-terror programme, “Prevent,” which is a national institution designed to prevent violence and extremism. The focus on counter-terrorism, preventing killings, and the functioning of a state security body places the article’s content squarely within the scope of SDG 16.

• SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being

  The article establishes a clear link between the risk of extremism and mental health. It states, “Around a third of referrals had at least one mental health condition or were neurodiverse,” connecting the promotion of mental health and well-being to the prevention of violence.

• SDG 4: Quality Education

  The role of the education system is central to the article’s topic. It mentions that schools have a “legal duty” to identify people at risk of extremism. Furthermore, the data shows that the majority of referrals are for school-aged children: “children aged 11-15 represented the largest proportion of referrals… at 36%,” followed by those aged 16-17. This highlights the importance of educational institutions in providing safe environments and identifying vulnerable youth.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

   • Target 16.1: “Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere.” The entire purpose of the “Prevent” programme is to stop individuals from turning to extremism and committing acts of violence. The article’s reference to the “killing of three children in Southport” underscores the programme’s direct connection to preventing violent deaths.
   • Target 16.a: “Strengthen relevant national institutions… to prevent violence and combat terrorism and crime.” The article is an analysis of a key national institution (“Prevent”) that forms part of the UK’s counter-terror strategy. The discussion of its failures, such as the premature closure of a case, and the subsequent review process relates to the ongoing effort to strengthen this institution’s effectiveness.

2. SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being

   • Target 3.4: “By 2030, reduce by one third premature mortality from non-communicable diseases through prevention and treatment and promote mental health and well-being.” The article implies that addressing mental health is a key part of preventing individuals from becoming vulnerable to extremism. The finding that a third of referrals involve mental health issues suggests that promoting mental well-being is crucial to achieving the broader goal of peace and security.

3. SDG 4: Quality Education

   • Target 4.a: “Build and upgrade education facilities that are child, disability and gender sensitive and provide safe, non-violent, inclusive and effective learning environments for all.” The legal duty placed on schools to identify at-risk individuals positions them on the front line of creating a safe and non-violent environment. The high percentage of referrals for children and teenagers indicates that schools are a critical setting for intervention and prevention.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Yes, the article provides several quantitative and qualitative indicators:

• Indicator for Target 16.1: The number of referrals to the Prevent programme serves as a direct indicator of the perceived level of risk of violence and extremism. The article provides specific data: “A total of 8,778 referrals were made,” which is a “27% increase” from the previous year. The breakdown by ideology (“right-wing ideology at 21%”, “Islamist extremism at 10%”) further specifies the nature of the threats being addressed.
• Indicator for Target 3.4: The statistic that “Around a third of referrals had at least one mental health condition or were neurodiverse” is a clear indicator that links mental health status to vulnerability to extremism. This data can be used to track the intersection of these issues and measure the effectiveness of integrated health and security strategies.
• Indicator for Target 4.a: The demographic data on referrals acts as an indicator of the prevalence of these risks within the education system. The article specifies that “children aged 11-15 represented the largest proportion of referrals… at 36%,” and “children aged 16-17, at 13%.” These figures measure the extent to which the school environment is dealing with these challenges.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: bbc.com