URI climate scientist contributes to research illustrating future impacts of Antarctic ice sheet melting – The University of Rhode Island

Report on the Global Impacts of Antarctic Ice Sheet Melt and Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

Introduction and Research Context

• A study published in Nature Communications, involving researchers from the University of Rhode Island, presents new simulations of Antarctic ice sheet-climate interactions.
• The research highlights that melting of the Antarctic ice sheet, driven by global warming, has long-term, irreversible societal impacts that directly threaten the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
• By integrating interactions between the ice sheet, ocean, and atmosphere, the study provides projections that differ significantly from models lacking this interactive component, revealing more severe and varied global consequences.

Key Findings and Projections

1. Asymmetrical Climate Impact: The discharge of cold Antarctic meltwater is projected to slow atmospheric warming in the Southern Hemisphere but will lead to warming in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly around the North Atlantic.
2. Altered Precipitation Patterns: The simulations forecast significant changes to global precipitation patterns, which has direct consequences for freshwater availability and agriculture worldwide.
3. Accelerated Sea-Level Rise: The study projects that under a very high emissions scenario, the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise will exceed 3 meters by 2200. Even in a medium emissions scenario, the rise is projected to be approximately 1 meter.
4. Disproportionate Regional Impacts: Due to gravitational effects, regions far from Antarctica, including low-lying islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans and the Caribbean Sea, will experience higher-than-average sea-level rise, potentially up to 1.5 meters.

Direct Implications for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

• SDG 13 (Climate Action): The report serves as a critical call for urgent and robust climate action. It demonstrates that current mitigation pledges are insufficient to prevent large-scale ice sheet mass loss, underscoring the necessity of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to meet the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals.
• SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities): With over one billion people projected to live in low-elevation coastal areas by 2060, the findings signal a direct threat to coastal communities, infrastructure, and economies. The uneven nature of sea-level rise exacerbates the vulnerability of these settlements.
• SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities) & SDG 1 (No Poverty): The research emphasizes that the impacts of sea-level rise will disproportionately harm socially and geographically vulnerable populations, particularly in developing nations and small island states. This raises critical issues of climate justice and intergenerational inequity, directly conflicting with the goal of reducing inequality.
• SDG 14 (Life Below Water): The influx of cold freshwater into the Southern Ocean will significantly alter marine ecosystems, ocean currents, and temperatures. This directly impacts marine biodiversity and the stability of global fisheries, which are vital for coastal livelihoods.
• SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation): The predicted alteration of global precipitation patterns threatens freshwater security, a cornerstone of SDG 6. Changes in rainfall can lead to both increased drought and flooding, jeopardizing access to clean water and sanitation for millions.

Conclusion

The study’s findings illustrate that the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet is intrinsically linked to the global climate system and the successful implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals. The projected impacts on sea level, temperature, and precipitation patterns present a formidable challenge to global efforts aimed at ensuring sustainable communities, reducing inequality, and protecting life on land and below water. Preventing the most severe outcomes is contingent upon immediate and substantial global mitigation efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions, in line with the objectives of SDG 13.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article on Antarctic ice sheet melting and its global impacts connects to several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The analysis reveals connections to the following goals:

• SDG 13: Climate Action: This is the most prominent SDG addressed. The entire article focuses on the consequences of global warming, such as the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet, rising sea levels, and altered climate patterns. It explicitly discusses the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and references the Paris Agreement, which are central themes of SDG 13.
• SDG 14: Life Below Water: The article discusses significant changes to the world’s oceans. It mentions the “cooling of the entire Southern Hemisphere” and “warming in the North Atlantic” due to meltwater discharge. These changes in ocean temperature and the rise in sea levels directly impact marine and coastal ecosystems, which is a core concern of SDG 14.
• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities: The research highlights the direct threat of sea-level rise to human settlements. The article states that “over one billion people could be living in low elevation coastal areas” by 2060 and mentions the devastation in the Caribbean from Hurricane Melissa, which is exacerbated by rising sea levels. This directly relates to the goal of making cities and communities safe, resilient, and sustainable, especially in the face of climate-related disasters.
• SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities: The article points out the disproportionate impact of climate change on vulnerable populations. It mentions “increasing the risk of sea level rise impacts for socially and geographically vulnerable populations” and raises “wide-ranging issues of intergenerational inequity and injustice.” This connects to the goal of reducing inequalities within and among countries, as the impacts are not felt equally.
• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals: The research described in the article is a collaborative effort. It involves a team of experts (“assistant professor… partnered with lead author Shaina Sadai and colleagues”) and is supported by major institutions (“funding from the National Science Foundation and the National Center for Atmospheric Research”). This scientific collaboration is a clear example of the partnerships needed to address global challenges like climate change.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the article’s discussion of climate impacts and societal vulnerabilities, several specific SDG targets can be identified:

1. Under SDG 13 (Climate Action):
   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries. The article’s focus on rising sea levels, altered precipitation, and the increased impact of storm surges (like Hurricane Melissa) directly relates to the need for coastal communities to adapt and build resilience.
   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning. The article’s reference to the “Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal” and the finding that current pledges are “insufficient” underscores the need for more robust climate action integrated into national policies.
2. Under SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities):
   • Target 11.5: By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected… by disasters, including water-related disasters, with a focus on protecting the poor and people in vulnerable situations. The article’s prediction that “over one billion people could be living in low elevation coastal areas” and the mention of “vulnerable coastal communities” directly address the population at risk from water-related disasters like flooding and storm surges.
3. Under SDG 14 (Life Below Water):
   • Target 14.2: By 2020, sustainably manage and protect marine and coastal ecosystems to avoid significant adverse impacts. The predicted “warming in the North Atlantic” and changes in the “Pacific and Indian Ocean basins and Caribbean Sea” due to meltwater will have significant adverse impacts on marine ecosystems, making this target highly relevant.
4. Under SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities):
   • Target 10.2: By 2030, empower and promote the social, economic and political inclusion of all… The article highlights that the impacts of sea-level rise fall disproportionately on “socially and geographically vulnerable populations,” creating “intergenerational inequity and injustice,” which this target aims to address.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

The article mentions or implies several quantitative and qualitative indicators that can be used to track progress toward the identified targets:

• Greenhouse Gas Emissions Levels: The article repeatedly emphasizes the importance of emissions, contrasting a “very high emissions scenario” with a “medium emissions scenario.” This is a primary indicator for measuring mitigation efforts under SDG 13.
• Global Mean Surface Temperature Rise: The article refers to the Paris Agreement’s goal of “limiting global mean surface temperature rise,” which is a key indicator for tracking the overall success of climate action (SDG 13).
• Rate of Ice Sheet Mass Loss: The study’s focus on “Antarctic ice sheet mass loss” serves as a direct physical indicator of the progression of global warming and its impacts.
• Sea Level Rise: This is a major indicator discussed and quantified in the article. Specific measurements are provided, such as a potential rise of “over 3m (10 feet) in a very high emissions scenario” and “regional sea level rise of up to 1.5m (5 feet).” This directly measures a key climate hazard relevant to SDG 11 and SDG 13.
• Number of People in Vulnerable Coastal Areas: The article provides a specific projection: “By 2060, over one billion people could be living in low elevation coastal areas.” This figure serves as an indicator of the scale of vulnerability that needs to be addressed under SDG 11.
• Changes in Ocean and Atmospheric Conditions: The research models changes like “cooling of the entire Southern Hemisphere” and “warming in the North Atlantic.” These serve as indicators of the large-scale climatic shifts affecting marine ecosystems (SDG 14).

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: uri.edu