Viewpoint: Organic fantasies—Why rejecting industrial agriculture for regenerative farming would be a big mistake for food security and sustainability – Genetic Literacy Project

Analysis of Agricultural Productivity, Climate Change, and Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary

This report analyzes prevalent narratives concerning the future of global agriculture, particularly claims of imminent collapse due to soil degradation and climate change. It evaluates these claims against scientific evidence and assesses proposed solutions, such as organic and regenerative agriculture, through the lens of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The analysis concludes that technologically advanced, high-yield conventional agriculture is critical for achieving SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 13 (Climate Action), and SDG 15 (Life on Land). Conversely, widespread adoption of lower-yield systems would jeopardize global food security and exacerbate environmental degradation, hindering progress on these key goals.

Debunking Agricultural Alarmism and its Impact on SDG 2 (Zero Hunger)

Misleading Narratives on Soil Degradation

Media reports frequently circulate unsubstantiated claims regarding the longevity of global topsoil, suggesting as few as 60 harvests remain. These narratives, which create public panic about food security, lack scientific citation and are demonstrably false. While soil degradation is a legitimate concern requiring targeted management, data indicates that the vast majority of agricultural soils have lifespans of many hundreds, if not thousands, of years. Such fear-mongering distracts from effective strategies to enhance soil health and undermines confidence in the food systems essential for achieving SDG 2.

The Promotion of Anti-Technological Solutions

The narrative that modern food systems are crumbling is often advanced by sources with a vested interest in promoting alternatives like organic or regenerative agriculture. This perspective incorrectly frames technological advancement as the problem rather than the solution. By advocating for a retreat from modern agricultural practices, this narrative poses a significant threat to global food security and the economic stability required to achieve SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth).

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Productivity and SDG 13 (Climate Action)

Quantifying the Net Impact of Climate Change

While climate change presents challenges to agriculture, its detrimental effects on global yields have been significantly outweighed by productivity growth driven by technological innovation. Studies show varied impacts by crop and region, with some analyses indicating a minor net decrease in consumable food calories compared to a hypothetical world without climate change. However, other research suggests that elevated CO2 levels may increase yields for certain staple crops. The overall impact of climate change on productivity remains far smaller than the gains achieved through technology.

Technological Progress as the Primary Driver of Food Security

Over the past half-century, a period that saw approximately 1 degree Celsius of global warming, agricultural output has nearly quadrupled. This remarkable increase in productivity is directly responsible for achieving significant progress toward SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) by increasing per capita calorie availability despite a doubling of the world population. This growth has also been crucial for environmental protection, preventing the conversion of over 3 billion hectares of land to agriculture, thereby supporting SDG 15 (Life on Land). Key technological drivers include:

• Synthetic fertilizers and modern crop protection products
• Fossil-powered mechanical equipment and expansive irrigation
• Advanced breeding techniques, including genetic modification
• Confined animal feeding operations and other livestock production efficiencies

Pathways to Sustainable Agricultural Intensification

A Dual Approach for Advancing SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure)

Future gains in agricultural productivity, essential for long-term food security, depend on a multi-pronged approach rooted in continued innovation. This strategy involves two distinct but complementary pathways:

1. Technological Revolution in Developed Economies: In regions where the “chemical revolution” is largely complete, the next wave of productivity growth will be driven by a “biological revolution.” This includes advances in crop and animal breeding, new genetic technologies, and a deeper understanding of soil and livestock biological systems.
2. Technology Adoption in Developing Economies: The most significant global opportunity for increasing yields lies in closing the “yield gap” between developed and developing nations. This can be achieved by supporting the widespread adoption of proven 20th-century technologies (e.g., fertilizers, improved seeds, mechanization) that have not yet been fully implemented in these regions.

Evaluating Alternative Farming Systems Against Key SDGs

The Yield Penalty of Organic and Regenerative Agriculture

A critical analysis of alternative farming systems reveals significant trade-offs that would undermine multiple SDGs. Organic agriculture is, on average, approximately 20% less productive than conventional systems. Practices associated with regenerative agriculture also frequently incur yield penalties. A global transition to these systems would sacrifice far more in terms of yield than the projected impacts of climate change, leading to a catastrophic failure to meet SDG 2 targets.

Negative Implications for SDG 13 (Climate Action) and SDG 15 (Life on Land)

The lower productivity of organic and regenerative systems has severe consequences for environmental sustainability.

• Land Use Expansion: To produce the same amount of food, a global switch to organic farming would require a massive expansion of agricultural land, leading to widespread deforestation and habitat destruction. This directly contravenes the objectives of SDG 15.
• Increased Carbon Emissions: The conversion of forests and grasslands to cropland would result in a significant release of carbon, undermining efforts related to SDG 13. Furthermore, a wholly organic system would rely heavily on animal manure for fertilizer, maintaining a large land and emissions footprint from livestock.

Case Study: Sri Lanka’s Organic Transition

The 2022 decision by Sri Lanka to ban synthetic fertilizers provides a stark real-world example of the consequences of rejecting modern agricultural science. The policy led to collapsing crop yields, skyrocketing food prices, and severe economic and political instability, demonstrating a profound setback for SDG 1 (No Poverty), SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), and SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth).

Conclusion and Recommendations

The evidence strongly indicates that technological and socioeconomic factors, not climate change, will be the primary determinants of the future of the global food system. Rejecting industrial agriculture for lower-yield alternatives would be a grave error, hindering progress on global hunger, poverty, and environmental protection. To effectively meet the Sustainable Development Goals, policy must focus on accelerating, not reversing, agricultural innovation.

• Continue robust public and private investment in agricultural research and development, focusing on the “biological revolution.”
• Facilitate the transfer and adoption of existing high-yield technologies to developing nations to close productivity gaps.
• Promote evidence-based policies that support agricultural intensification as a primary strategy for land-sparing, thereby protecting biodiversity and carbon sinks in line with SDG 15.
• Counter misinformation and alarmism to ensure that public discourse on food and agriculture is grounded in scientific reality.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

1. SDG 2: Zero Hunger
   • The article’s central theme is global food security, agricultural productivity, and the prevention of hunger. It directly discusses the “steady decline in hunger over the past five decades,” the goal of feeding a growing population, and the potential impacts of different agricultural systems on food availability.
2. SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure
   • The article heavily emphasizes the role of technological innovation in agriculture. It credits the “chemical revolution” (synthetic fertilizers, pesticides) and anticipates a “biological revolution” (genetic technologies) for driving yield growth. It calls for “continued investment in both public and private research and development” to ensure future food security.
3. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • The article analyzes the relationship between climate change and agriculture. It discusses studies on climate change’s impact on crop yields and argues that technological progress can offset these effects. Furthermore, it addresses climate mitigation by arguing that high-yield conventional agriculture prevents the expansion of farmland, thereby preserving forests and wildlands that act as “global carbon sink[s].”
4. SDG 15: Life on Land
   • The article begins by addressing the issue of soil degradation, a key concern for terrestrial ecosystems. It also makes a strong case for land sparing, stating that increased agricultural output has prevented “more than 3 billion hectares of land being converted to agricultural land,” which is crucial for halting deforestation and protecting biodiversity.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. Under SDG 2 (Zero Hunger):
   • Target 2.1: End hunger and ensure access by all people to safe, nutritious and sufficient food all year round. The article supports this by advocating for high-yield agricultural methods to increase the global food supply, noting that the “amount of calories produced per person globally has increased by a quarter since 1970.”
   • Target 2.3: Double the agricultural productivity… of food producers. The article is fundamentally about increasing agricultural productivity (yields). It highlights that “global agricultural output has increased almost four-fold” in the last 50 years and argues for closing “yield gaps between developed and developing economies.”
   • Target 2.4: Ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices. The article engages in a critical debate on what constitutes a “sustainable” system. It challenges the sustainability of organic and regenerative practices due to their lower yields and argues that technology-driven conventional agriculture is more resilient to challenges like climate change.
   • Target 2.a: Increase investment… in agricultural research and extension services… to enhance agricultural productive capacity. This is explicitly called for when the article states that “long-term yield growth in already modernized agricultural systems will require technological breakthroughs” and “continued investment in both public and private research and development.”
2. Under SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure):
   • Target 9.5: Enhance scientific research, upgrade the technological capabilities of industrial sectors in all countries. The article champions this target by promoting a “multi-pronged approach” to advancing agriculture through innovation, including a “chemical revolution” and a coming “biological” one, driven by R&D.
   • Target 9.b: Support domestic technology development, research and innovation in developing countries. The article directly addresses this by stating that a key way to increase global yields is by “supporting the adoption of the same technologies that enabled 20th-century yield growth in developed economies” in regions that have not yet benefited from them.
3. Under SDG 13 (Climate Action):
   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters. The article argues that “technological progress” is the key to negating the negative impacts of climate change on agriculture, thereby strengthening the food system’s resilience.
4. Under SDG 15 (Life on Land):
   • Target 15.2: Promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation. The article directly supports this by quantifying the benefit of yield increases: “the prevention of more than 3 billion hectares of land being converted to agricultural land,” which spares forests and other ecosystems.
   • Target 15.3: Combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil. The article opens with a discussion on soil degradation, acknowledging it as a real issue (“most soils around the world face some level of degradation”) even while debunking exaggerated claims, making this target highly relevant.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

1. Agricultural Yields / Productivity:
   • This is the most prominent indicator used throughout the article. It is used to measure the success of past technological advances (“global agricultural output has increased almost four-fold”), to compare different farming systems (“Organic agriculture, on average, is about a fifth less productive”), and to project future food production. This directly relates to measuring progress on Target 2.3.
2. Prevalence of Hunger and Malnutrition:
   • The article implies this indicator by referring to the “steady decline in hunger over the past five decades” and how agricultural innovations have “saved billions of lives by reducing rates of hunger and malnutrition.” This is a key metric for Target 2.1.
3. Rate of Land Use Change / Land Sparing:
   • A specific quantitative indicator is provided: “the prevention of more than 3 billion hectares of land being converted to agricultural land.” This metric is used to measure the positive environmental impact of high-yield farming and is directly relevant to tracking progress on Target 15.2 (halting deforestation).
4. Proportion of Degraded Land:
   • The discussion around “soil degradation” directly points to this indicator. While the article disputes the severity reported in some media, it acknowledges the existence of degradation, making its measurement essential for Target 15.3.
5. Investment in Agricultural Research & Development:
   • The article implies this as a crucial indicator for future progress. The call for “continued investment in both public and private research and development” suggests that tracking R&D spending is necessary to achieve the technological breakthroughs needed for Targets 2.a and 9.5.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: geneticliteracyproject.org