College degrees lose job-market edge for recent grads, new research suggests – WCVB

Labor Market Analysis: Graduate Employment Prospects and Sustainable Development Goals

Recent research indicates a significant shift in the labor market, impacting the employment prospects of young college graduates. These trends present challenges to the achievement of key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 4 (Quality Education) and SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth).

Convergence in Job-Finding Rates: A Challenge to SDG 8

An analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland highlights a narrowing gap in employment opportunities, which has direct implications for SDG 8, aiming for full and productive employment and decent work for all. The report identifies “signs of diminished prospects for young college graduates.”

• The job-finding rate for workers with a college education has recently declined, aligning closely with the rate for those with a high school education.
• This convergence signals the end of a prolonged period where college graduates held a distinct advantage in securing employment, complicating efforts to ensure decent work for this demographic.

Hiring Projections and Economic Growth Targets

Employer forecasts further underscore the challenges related to SDG 8. A survey by the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE) reveals stagnant hiring growth.

• Employers project a minimal 1.6% increase in hiring for the Class of 2026 compared to the Class of 2025.
• This low growth rate suggests a difficult job market, potentially hindering progress towards sustained economic growth and productive employment as outlined in SDG 8.

Evolving Employer Metrics and the Imperative for SDG 4 (Quality Education)

The NACE survey also reveals a fundamental shift in employer evaluation criteria, emphasizing the need for educational systems to align with the principles of SDG 4, which calls for inclusive and equitable quality education and lifelong learning opportunities that lead to relevant and effective learning outcomes.

The declining importance of traditional academic indicators, such as Grade Point Averages (GPAs), is notable:

• In 2019, over 73% of employers screened candidates based on GPA.
• This figure has now fallen below 40%.

Instead, employers are prioritizing skills and experiences that directly contribute to workforce readiness, a core target of SDG 4. The new focus areas include:

1. Academic major and its relevance to the industry.
2. Substantial industry-specific experience.
3. Completion of internships and other work-integrated learning.
4. Demonstrated proficiencies and practical skills.

This evolution in recruitment practices underscores the critical need for educational institutions to integrate practical, skills-based training to ensure graduates are equipped for the demands of the modern workforce, thereby fulfilling the objectives of both SDG 4 and SDG 8.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 4: Quality Education

  The article directly relates to the outcomes of tertiary education. It discusses how the value of a college degree in the job market is changing, questioning whether the education provided is equipping graduates with the skills employers currently demand. The shift away from traditional metrics like GPA towards practical experience suggests a focus on the relevance and quality of education for employment.

• SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

  The core theme of the article is employment, specifically the challenges young graduates face in securing jobs. It analyzes labor market trends, hiring projections, and job-finding rates, all of which are central to SDG 8’s goal of promoting “full and productive employment and decent work for all.” The article highlights a negative trend for a key demographic (youth), which is a primary concern of this goal.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. Target 4.4: Relevant skills for employment

   This target aims to “substantially increase the number of youth and adults who have relevant skills, including technical and vocational skills, for employment, decent jobs and entrepreneurship.” The article strongly supports this by noting that employers are de-emphasizing general academic achievements (GPA) and instead prioritizing “a graduate’s academic major, industry experience, internships and demonstrated proficiencies.” This indicates a clear demand for the “relevant skills” mentioned in the target.

2. Target 8.5: Full and productive employment for all, including youth

   This target seeks to “achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all women and men, including for young people.” The article’s focus on the “diminished prospects for young college graduates” and the prediction of “one of the worst job markets in years for graduates” directly addresses the challenges in achieving this target for the youth demographic.

3. Target 8.6: Reduce the proportion of youth not in employment, education or training (NEET)

   This target aims to “substantially reduce the proportion of youth not in employment, education or training.” The article’s central finding that the “job-finding rate for young college-educated workers has declined” points to an increased risk of recent graduates falling into the NEET category. A lower job-finding rate directly correlates with a potential increase in the proportion of youth who are unemployed after completing their education.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• Job-finding rate by educational attainment: The article explicitly states that “the job-finding rate for young college-educated workers has declined to be roughly in line with the rate for young high-school-educated workers.” This serves as a direct indicator for measuring employment prospects (Target 8.5) and the risk of youth unemployment (Target 8.6).
• Projected hiring rates for graduates: The article cites a specific figure from the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE) that “employers are projecting just a 1.6% increase in hiring for the Class of 2026.” This quantitative forecast is an indicator of future labor market demand for young, educated workers, relevant to Target 8.5.
• Employer screening criteria: The article provides data on the changing priorities of employers. It mentions that the percentage of employers who “screened GPAs” has fallen “from more than 73%… in 2019” to “below 40% in recent years.” This shift, coupled with the increased focus on internships and industry experience, acts as an indicator for the demand for “relevant skills” as outlined in Target 4.4.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: wcvb.com