COP30: An Inflection Point for Climate Action and Governance – l’Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)

Report on the State of Global Climate Action and the Strategic Imperatives for COP30

Introduction: Climate Crisis and the Sustainable Development Goals

The global effort to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 13 (Climate Action) faces a critical challenge. The confirmation of 2024 as the hottest year on record, which saw the world surpass the 1.5°C warming threshold for the first time, underscores the escalating climate crisis. However, progress on SDG 13 is being deprioritized on the global political agenda due to geopolitical instability, economic pressures, and a weakening of the multilateral, rules-based order. This trend directly threatens the interconnected framework of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

While advancements have been made in achieving SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) through the rapid deployment and falling costs of renewable energy, the pace of global emissions reduction remains insufficient. COP30 in Belém is therefore a pivotal moment to reaffirm multilateral commitment to the Paris Agreement and the broader Sustainable Development Goals.

The Evolution of the COP Process and its Role in Advancing the 2030 Agenda

From Rule-Making to Implementation

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process is transitioning from an era of negotiation to one of implementation. With the Paris Agreement rulebook now operational, the primary task for COP30 and subsequent conferences is to drive cooperative action. This shift necessitates strengthening SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals), moving beyond governmental negotiations to foster collaboration with non-state actors to overcome real-world barriers to achieving climate targets.

The “Action Agenda”: A Platform for Multi-Stakeholder Collaboration

The growth of the COP into a major global event, with over 80,000 participants at COP28, is largely due to the development of the “action agenda.” This ecosystem involves a diverse range of stakeholders, crucial for a holistic approach to sustainable development.

• Cities and Local Governments: Key actors in implementing policies for SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities).
• Businesses and the Private Sector: Essential partners for financing and innovating towards SDG 7 and SDG 13.
• Civil Society: Vital for ensuring accountability and advocating for equity, in line with SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities) and SDG 16 (Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions).

COP30 in Belém: Challenges to an Inclusive and Ambitious Outcome

Logistical Barriers and the Threat to Equity

The selection of Belém, located in the Amazon, highlights the importance of SDG 15 (Life on Land) by focusing global attention on vital ecosystems. However, significant logistical challenges, particularly an accommodation crisis, risk excluding delegations from the poorest nations and civil society. This poses a direct threat to the principles of inclusivity and equity central to SDG 10 and undermines the legitimacy of the multilateral process.

Key Agenda Items and Their SDG Linkages

The formal agenda for COP30 includes several technical items with profound implications for the 2030 Agenda.

1. Global Goal on Adaptation: Establishing indicators to track progress is fundamental for protecting vulnerable populations and advancing SDG 1 (No Poverty) in the face of climate impacts.
2. Just Transition Work Program: This program is central to ensuring that the shift to a green economy promotes SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) and reduces inequality.
3. Climate Finance: Discussions on a new financial goal are critical for enabling developing countries to meet their climate commitments. Mobilizing finance is a core component of SDG 17 and a prerequisite for action on SDG 7 and SDG 13 across the Global South.

The Political Challenge of Insufficient Ambition

The primary political challenge for COP30 is the anticipated shortfall in collective ambition within the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Early indications suggest that these 2035 targets will be inadequate to align the world with a 1.5°C pathway, placing the achievement of SDG 13 in severe jeopardy.

Strategic Recommendations for a Successful COP30

Potential Strategies for the Brazilian Presidency

To galvanize global action, an effective approach may combine several strategies focused on implementation and accountability.

• High-Level Political Leadership: Utilize the pre-COP summit to generate strong political momentum from world leaders, reaffirming their commitment to the Paris Agreement and the SDGs.
• A Decision-Led Mandate: Aim for a formal COP decision that urges all parties to “revisit and strengthen” their NDCs to align with the 1.5°C target, providing a clear political signal for enhanced action on SDG 13.
• An Implementation-Focused Forum: Restructure the “action agenda” to focus on delivering the outcomes of the first global stocktake. This would create a robust mechanism to track progress and ensure accountability, linking directly to the implementation of all climate-related SDGs.

The Role of the European Union

The EU’s credibility is under scrutiny. To restore its leadership role, the EU must submit a highly ambitious NDC, uphold the European Green Deal, and demonstrate commitment to SDG 17 by securing climate finance and strengthening partnerships with developing nations.

Conclusion: Evolving the COP for the Implementation Era

COP30 in Belém offers a crucial opportunity to begin a necessary evolution of the UNFCCC process. By shifting the focus from negotiation to implementation, improving the effectiveness of formal proceedings, and building stronger institutional links to the broader UN system, the COP can become a more effective driver of progress not only for SDG 13 (Climate Action) but for the entire 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Analysis of SDGs in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

1. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • This is the central theme of the article. It directly addresses the climate crisis, referencing the fact that 2024 is the “hottest year on record,” the surpassing of the “1.5°C threshold,” and the urgent need for “rapid and sustained reductions” in emissions. The entire discussion is framed around the UNFCCC, the Paris Agreement, and the COP climate conferences, which are the primary international mechanisms for addressing climate change.
2. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals
   • The article heavily emphasizes the importance of global cooperation and multilateralism. It discusses the evolution of the COP process, the challenges posed by geopolitical tensions and the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, and the need to “reaffirm commitment to multilateral climate action.” It also highlights the role of the “action agenda,” which involves partnerships with “non-state actors like cities, businesses, and civil society.”
3. SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
   • The article explicitly mentions progress in clean energy as a positive outcome since the Paris Agreement. It states there has been significant “deployment of renewable energy, with costs falling,” which is a core objective of SDG 7.
4. SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
   • The article mentions that a key decision expected in Belém is “guiding the just transition work program.” The concept of a “just transition” is directly linked to SDG 8, as it aims to ensure that the shift to a green economy is fair, inclusive, and creates decent work opportunities while mitigating negative social and economic impacts.
5. SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
   • The article identifies “cities” as crucial non-state actors participating in the “action agenda.” This acknowledges the vital role of urban centers in implementing climate initiatives and contributing to global climate goals, which aligns with the aims of SDG 11.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning.
   • The article’s extensive discussion of “nationally determined contributions (NDCs)” for 2035 directly relates to this target. It highlights the political challenge of ensuring the “collective ambition of these new climate targets” is sufficient to meet the 1.5°C or 2°C pathways.
2. Target 13.a: Implement the commitment undertaken by developed-country parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to a goal of mobilizing jointly $100 billion annually by 2020 from all sources to address the needs of developing countries.
   • The article discusses the contentious nature of climate finance, mentioning the need for a “meaningful follow-up to last year’s new financial goal” and the challenge to “build up finance for developing countries despite cuts in support from developed countries.” This reflects the ongoing efforts to implement financial commitments under the UNFCCC.
3. Target 17.16: Enhance the Global Partnership for Sustainable Development, complemented by multi-stakeholder partnerships.
   • The entire article is an analysis of the global partnership for climate action, centered on the COP process. It discusses the need to overcome “geopolitical tensions” and strengthen the “multilateral, rules-based order” to drive implementation of the Paris Agreement.
4. Target 17.17: Encourage and promote effective public, public-private and civil society partnerships.
   • The article explicitly points to the growth of the “action agenda,” which it defines as an “ecosystem of initiatives involving non-state actors like cities, businesses, and civil society alongside governments.” This directly corresponds to the promotion of multi-stakeholder partnerships.
5. Target 7.2: By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.
   • The article cites the “deployment of renewable energy” as a key area of progress since the Paris Agreement was signed, directly aligning with this target.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

1. Indicators for Adaptation (Relating to SDG 13):
   • The article explicitly states that one of the “Key decisions” expected at the Belém conference is on “establishing indicators to track progress on the global goal on adaptation.” This is a direct mention of a formal process to create a measurement framework.
2. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Levels (Relating to SDG 13):
   • This is strongly implied as a primary indicator. The article’s references to the “1.5°C threshold,” the need for “rapid and sustained reductions,” and the goal of reaching a “peak in global emissions” all point to the measurement of total greenhouse gas emissions (Indicator 13.2.2) as the core metric for success.
3. Financial Flows to Developing Countries (Relating to SDG 17):
   • The discussion around the “new financial goal” and the need to “demonstrate a pathway to build up finance for developing countries” implies that the amount of climate finance mobilized is a critical indicator (related to Indicator 17.3.1). Progress is measured by tracking these financial commitments and disbursements.
4. Share of Renewable Energy (Relating to SDG 7):
   • The statement about progress in the “deployment of renewable energy” implies that the share of renewables in the energy mix (Indicator 7.2.1) is being used as a key performance indicator to measure progress since the Paris Agreement.

4. Summary Table of Findings

Source: ifri.org