Global greenhouse-gas emissions are still rising: when will they peak? – Nature

Report on Global Carbon Emissions and Alignment with Sustainable Development Goals

1.0 Executive Summary: Current Emissions Trajectory and SDG 13

A recent analysis presented at the COP30 UN climate summit indicates that global fossil-fuel emissions are projected to reach a new record high. This trend poses a significant challenge to the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 13 (Climate Action). However, data also suggests that the rate of increase is slowing, indicating a potential peak in global emissions may be approaching. This report assesses the current emissions landscape, regional disparities, and future projections in the context of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

2.0 Global Emissions Status

The Global Carbon Project, an international research consortium vital for SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals), has released its latest findings. The data highlights a persistent gap between current emission levels and the targets set by the Paris Agreement, which is a cornerstone of SDG 13.

• Emissions from fossil fuels and cement production are projected to increase by 1.1% this year, reaching 38.1 billion tonnes of CO₂.
• This continued rise in emissions directly conflicts with the urgent need for climate mitigation outlined in SDG 13.
• Overall greenhouse-gas emissions are approximately 10% higher than they were when the Paris climate agreement was signed, underscoring the scale of the challenge.
• Some projections suggest that total greenhouse-gas emissions, including methane and nitrous oxide, could begin to decline by 2030.

3.0 Regional Analysis and Implications for SDGs 7 and 9

Emission trends vary significantly by region, reflecting different stages of industrial development and energy transition. This divergence has profound implications for achieving SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure) on a global scale.

3.1 Industrialized Nations

Major industrialized countries have demonstrated a decline in emissions over the past two decades, aligning with efforts to transition towards cleaner energy systems (SDG 7) and more sustainable industrial practices (SDG 9).

3.2 Developing Nations

Emissions are rising in many low- and middle-income countries as they pursue economic growth and expand energy access. This highlights a critical tension between development aspirations and climate responsibilities under SDG 13.

4.0 Case Study: China’s Impact on Global Sustainability Goals

China’s role is central to the global emissions narrative, as it currently accounts for nearly one-third of the world’s greenhouse-gas emissions. The country’s policies and economic shifts have a direct impact on multiple SDGs.

1. Industrial Emissions and Infrastructure (SDG 9): China’s extensive use of coal-fired power plants and its large-scale cement and steel production have been primary drivers of its emissions. A recent collapse in the real-estate market has reduced demand for these materials, leading to a coincidental decrease in associated emissions.
2. Transition to Clean Energy (SDG 7): In a positive development for SDG 7, China is now a global leader in the clean energy sector. The country is rapidly adopting electric vehicles, wind power, and solar energy, demonstrating a commitment to decarbonization.
3. Peak Emissions Debate (SDG 13): There is an ongoing debate about whether China’s emissions have already peaked. Some data suggests a peak occurred in 2024, while other models project it will happen closer to 2030. The timing of this peak is a critical variable for the world’s ability to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.

5.0 Conclusion and Outlook

The latest data presents a mixed outlook. While the continued rise in fossil-fuel emissions is a setback for SDG 13 (Climate Action), the slowing growth rate and significant progress in renewable energy adoption, particularly in China, offer signs of a potential turning point. Achieving a global emissions peak and subsequent rapid decline requires intensified international cooperation under SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals) to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy (SDG 7) and infrastructure (SDG 9) worldwide.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy – The article discusses the transition from fossil fuels (coal) to clean energy sources like wind and solar, particularly highlighting China’s role in leading the clean-energy sector.
• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure – The text mentions emissions from industrial processes, specifically “cement production,” and the impact of the real-estate market on demand for cement and steel, linking industrial activity directly to carbon emissions.
• SDG 13: Climate Action – This is the central theme of the article. It focuses entirely on global carbon and greenhouse-gas emissions, climate summits (COP30), the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5 °C, and the need for climate policies to reduce emissions.
• SDG 15: Life on Land – The article makes a direct reference to the impact of land use on carbon emissions, mentioning a “projected drop in deforestation and other land-use changes” as a factor that could contribute to an overall decline in emissions.
• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals – The article refers to global collaborative efforts to address climate change, such as the “COP30 UN climate summit,” the “Paris climate agreement,” and the “Global Carbon Project, an international consortium of researchers.”

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

• Target 7.2: By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.
  
  The article supports this by highlighting that China is “leading the global clean-energy sector” and is “rapidly turning to electric vehicles as well as wind and solar energy,” which are key actions to increase the share of renewable energy.
• Target 9.4: By 2030, upgrade infrastructure and retrofit industries to make them sustainable… with all countries taking action in accordance with their respective capabilities.
  
  The article discusses emissions from “cement production” and the role of China’s industrial sector (coal-fired power plants, steel) in global emissions. The shift to clean energy and potential peak in emissions imply efforts to make these industries more sustainable.
• Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning.
  
  The article references the “Paris climate agreement” and national commitments, such as China’s goal to “reduce overall greenhouse-gas emissions by at least 7% from peak levels by 2035.” This shows the integration of climate measures into national planning.
• Target 15.2: By 2020, promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation, restore degraded forests and substantially increase afforestation and reforestation globally.
  
  This target is relevant due to the article’s statement that “Overall carbon emissions could decline slightly if a projected drop in deforestation and other land-use changes is factored in,” directly linking forest management to climate goals.
• Target 17.16: Enhance the global partnership for sustainable development, complemented by multi-stakeholder partnerships that mobilize and share knowledge, expertise, technology and financial resources…
  
  The article mentions several examples of such partnerships, including the “COP30 UN climate summit” where scientists announced their findings, and the “Global Carbon Project,” described as an “international consortium of researchers who track carbon emissions.”

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• Indicator 13.2.2: Total greenhouse gas emissions per year.
  
  The article is replete with this indicator. It explicitly states that “Emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production are projected to rise by 1.1%, to 38.1 billion tonnes of CO2 this year,” and that “greenhouse-gas emissions are around 10% higher than a decade ago.” It also tracks regional emissions, noting that China “accounts for nearly one-third of the world’s greenhouse-gas emissions.”
• Indicator 9.4.1: CO2 emission per unit of value added.
  
  While not calculated per unit of value added, the article directly measures a key component of this indicator by tracking “emissions from… cement production.” The discussion of the collapse of the real-estate market leading to “less demand for cement and steel” implies a link between economic activity (value added) and emissions.
• Indicator 7.2.1: Renewable energy share in the total final energy consumption.
  
  The article implies progress on this indicator by stating that China is “rapidly turning to electric vehicles as well as wind and solar energy.” This shift away from fossil fuels like coal directly contributes to increasing the renewable energy share.
• Indicator 15.2.1: Progress towards sustainable forest management.
  
  The article implies this indicator by mentioning a “projected drop in deforestation and other land-use changes.” A reduction in deforestation is a primary measure of progress towards sustainable forest management.

SDGs, Targets, and Indicators Summary

Source: nature.com