Global trade overdependent on US and China, WTO head says – DW

Report on Global Trade Dynamics and Sustainable Development

Addressing Overdependence to Foster Sustainable Economic Growth (SDGs 8, 9, 10, 17)

• Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the World Trade Organization, has identified a critical imbalance in the global trading system. The system, originally designed for interdependence, now exhibits characteristics of overdependence.
• Specific vulnerabilities highlighted include an over-reliance on United States markets and an overdependence on China for critical supplies.
• This situation poses a direct challenge to several Sustainable Development Goals. It undermines the objective of achieving inclusive and sustainable economic growth (SDG 8) by creating economic instability.
• Furthermore, it hinders the development of resilient infrastructure and inclusive industrialization (SDG 9) and exacerbates global economic disparities, working against the goal of reducing inequalities (SDG 10).
• Realigning the system towards balanced interdependence is crucial for revitalizing the global partnership for sustainable development (SDG 17).

The Role of Artificial Intelligence in Global Trade and the Risk of Widening Inequalities (SDGs 8, 9, 10)

1. Potential for Economic Advancement: Artificial intelligence (AI) presents a significant opportunity to advance global trade, with studies predicting a potential boost of nearly 40% by the year 2040. This technological advancement aligns with the aims of SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) by offering new avenues for economic expansion.
2. Risk of Increased Inequality: A significant concern was raised regarding the equitable adoption of AI. Without a globally inclusive approach, there is a substantial risk that developing regions will be left behind the United States and China, thereby widening the technological and economic gap. This directly threatens the progress of SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities).
3. Imperative for Inclusive Innovation: To ensure that AI contributes positively to the 2030 Agenda, its adoption must be equitable. This supports SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure) by promoting access to new technologies and fostering inclusive innovation, ensuring that the benefits of technological progress are shared globally.

Analysis of the Article in Relation to Sustainable Development Goals

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article touches upon several interconnected Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to global economic systems, technological advancement, and inequality.

• SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth: The discussion revolves around global trade, which is a primary driver of economic growth. The prediction of a “nearly 40% boost by 2040” due to artificial intelligence directly relates to increasing economic productivity.
• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure: The article explicitly highlights the role of a key innovation—artificial intelligence—in transforming global trade. It addresses the need for technological upgrading to boost economic activity.
• SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities: A central theme is the risk of growing inequality between nations. The warning that without equitable adoption of AI, “other regions risk being left behind China and the US,” directly addresses the potential for new technologies to widen the gap between countries.
• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals: The article is framed within the context of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and a G20 summit, which are fundamental platforms for global partnerships. The comments from the WTO Director-General on the “world trading system” and interdependence are directly related to strengthening the means of implementation and global partnership for sustainable development.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the issues discussed, several specific SDG targets can be identified:

1. Target 8.2 (under SDG 8): “Achieve higher levels of economic productivity through diversification, technological upgrading and innovation…” The article’s focus on artificial intelligence as a tool to create a “nearly 40% boost” in global trade directly aligns with this target of leveraging technology for economic productivity.
2. Target 9.b (under SDG 9): “Support domestic technology development, research and innovation in developing countries…” The warning that other regions could be “left behind” implies a need to support their technological capacity to ensure they can also benefit from AI, which is the core of this target.
3. Target 10.a (under SDG 10): “Implement the principle of special and differential treatment for developing countries, in particular least developed countries, in accordance with World Trade Organization agreements.” The statement is from the head of the WTO, discussing the structure of the global trading system. The concern about inequitable adoption of AI is a modern challenge to ensuring the trading system benefits all, which is the spirit of this target.
4. Target 17.10 (under SDG 17): “Promote a universal, rules-based, open, non-discriminatory and equitable multilateral trading system under the World Trade Organization…” The Director-General’s comments on the challenges of “overdependence” within the “world trading system” are a direct reflection on the health and equity of the multilateral trading system this target aims to promote.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

The article does not mention official SDG indicators, but it provides data and concepts that can be used as or imply indicators for measuring progress:

• Implied Indicator for Target 8.2: The article provides a specific quantitative forecast: “a nearly 40% boost [in global trade] by 2040.” The rate of growth in global trade volume, particularly growth attributed to technological efficiency, can serve as a direct indicator of progress.
• Implied Indicator for Targets 9.b and 10.a: The article implies a comparative indicator by contrasting “China and the US” with “other regions.” Progress could be measured by the rate of AI adoption in trade-related sectors across different economic regions (developed vs. developing). A narrowing gap would indicate progress, while a widening gap would signal a failure to achieve equitable adoption.
• Implied Indicator for Target 17.10: The mention of “overdependence on maybe the US for markets and on China for critical supplies” suggests an indicator related to trade concentration. Progress towards a more balanced and equitable system could be measured by a decrease in trade concentration ratios and an increase in the diversification of trade partners for developing countries.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: dw.com