Impacts of climate adaptation on food production and environmental sustainability across metacoupling systems – Nature

Report on the Impacts of Climate Adaptation on Food Production and Environmental Sustainability Across Metacoupling Systems

Introduction

Climate change poses significant challenges to global food security, ecological balance, and sustainable development. The increasing global population and rising living standards intensify the demand for stable agricultural production, while arable land availability declines and environmental risks escalate. This report emphasizes the critical role of climate adaptation behaviors in mitigating these challenges by analyzing their effects on the food–water–energy–carbon (FWEC) nexus within the Loess Plateau region of China. The study aligns with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), and SDG 13 (Climate Action).

Methodological Framework

A dynamic Climate Adaptation–Environmental Multi-factor Feedback Framework was developed, integrating life cycle assessment (LCA), scenario modeling, and metacoupling analysis. This approach enables tracking climate-driven dynamics of the FWEC nexus and evaluating how adaptation reshapes this nexus across input, output, and spillover systems. The metacoupling framework considers interactions among sending systems (central government), receiving systems (Loess Plateau), and spillover systems (major grain-exporting countries), facilitating a comprehensive understanding of cross-regional environmental and socioeconomic flows.

Findings

1. Food–Water–Energy–Carbon Nexus on Loess Plateau

1. Environmental Footprints (2020):
   • Grain production: 55.7 million tons
   • Cultivated land: 9,081 kha
   • Water footprint: 391 million m³
   • Energy footprint: 201 PJ
   • Carbon footprint: 13.1 million tons CO₂
2. Spatial Variability: Southern and northern sub-regions along the Yellow River Basin exhibit the highest FWEC intensities due to irrigation dependence, terrain constraints, soil characteristics, and water allocation policies.
3. Water’s Pivotal Role: Water footprint positively correlates with energy and carbon footprints; irrigation dependency is a key sustainability indicator.
4. Decoupling of Yield and Resource Use: Recent ecological restoration and land management projects have improved productivity without increasing resource footprints, supporting SDG 15 (Life on Land).

2. Impacts of Climate Change on Food Production

1. Projected Changes by 2050 under SSP Scenarios:
   • Cultivated area expansion: 22.4% to 31%
   • Grain yield decline: 10% to 15.8%
   • Food production center shifts 41–62 km northwestward and 43–115 m upward
   • Yield losses of 47–65% in most counties
2. Geographical Variability: Eastern counties may experience yield increases due to favorable climatic and soil conditions, whereas western counties face yield declines due to aridity and erosion.
3. SDG Relevance: These projections underscore the urgency of SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 13 (Climate Action) in regional planning.

3. Assessment of Climate Adaptation Strategies

1. Scenario Analysis: Twelve adaptation scenarios were evaluated, including irrigation upgrades, conservation tillage, dietary shifts, and land consolidation.
2. Key Outcomes:
   • Scenarios combining drip irrigation, land consolidation, and dietary shifts (e.g., S13) achieve the lowest water, energy, and carbon footprints while maintaining high yields.
   • Reduced irrigation alone limits water footprint but depresses yields, challenging food sustainability.
   • Advanced irrigation technologies and conservation tillage offer synergistic benefits but require balancing energy and carbon footprints.
3. Sensitivity to Climate Stress: Integrated adaptation packages demonstrate resilience to hot–dry conditions, supporting SDG 6, SDG 7, and SDG 13.

4. Environmental Costs of Climate Adaptation Behaviors

1. Life Cycle Assessment of Land Consolidation Projects:
   • Total water footprint: ~746 million m³ (80% during construction)
   • Total carbon footprint: ~6.81 million tons CO₂ (mainly from material manufacturing and land reshaping)
   • Total energy footprint: ~146 PJ (concentrated in mechanized construction and transportation)
2. Short-Term vs. Long-Term Trade-offs: While land consolidation imposes near-term environmental pressures, it contributes to long-term climate adaptation and sustainability, aligning with SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure) and SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production).

5. Spatial Spillover Effects of Climate Adaptation Behaviors

1. International Grain Trade Implications: Enhancing grain self-sufficiency on Loess Plateau reduces China’s dependence on imports from major exporters such as Australia, the USA, Canada, Kazakhstan, and France.
2. Global Environmental Benefits:
   • Annual reductions of ~43 million m³ in water use
   • ~0.08 PJ decrease in energy consumption
   • ~17 million tons CO₂ emissions avoided
3. SDG Integration: These spillover effects contribute to global progress on SDG 2, SDG 6, SDG 7, and SDG 13, emphasizing the importance of international cooperation.

Discussion and Recommendations

Key Insights

• Climate adaptation behaviors significantly influence the FWEC nexus and food security while generating both local and global environmental impacts.
• Dynamic metacoupling analysis reveals complex interactions and spillover effects, highlighting the need for integrated policy approaches.
• Short-term environmental costs of adaptation measures must be balanced against long-term sustainability gains.
• Supply-side interventions alone are insufficient; demand-side measures such as dietary shifts and food waste reduction are critical.

Policy Recommendations

1. Optimize Land Consolidation: Implement water-efficient construction practices and use low-carbon materials to minimize short-term environmental burdens.
2. Promote Advanced Irrigation and Conservation Tillage: Expand adoption of drip and sprinkler irrigation combined with soil conservation to enhance resource efficiency.
3. Encourage Sustainable Consumption: Introduce eco-labeling, public procurement standards, and dietary guidelines to reduce resource footprints.
4. Strengthen International Cooperation: Integrate climate adaptation considerations into global grain trade policies, including adaptive tariffs and technology transfer mechanisms.
5. Support Comprehensive Research: Address data gaps in trade policies, socio-economic factors, and household-level adaptation behaviors to inform inclusive strategies.

Alignment with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

• SDG 2 (Zero Hunger): Enhancing food security through climate adaptation and sustainable agricultural practices.
• SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation): Improving water use efficiency and managing water footprints in agriculture.
• SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy): Promoting energy-efficient irrigation and farming technologies.
• SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure): Supporting sustainable land consolidation and infrastructure development.
• SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production): Encouraging sustainable consumption patterns and reducing food waste.
• SDG 13 (Climate Action): Implementing adaptation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on food systems.
• SDG 15 (Life on Land): Enhancing ecological restoration and land management to combat soil erosion.

Conclusion

This comprehensive analysis demonstrates that climate adaptation behaviors on the Loess Plateau are pivotal for achieving sustainable food production and environmental conservation. By employing a dynamic FWEC metacoupling framework, the study elucidates the complex interdependencies among climate adaptation, resource use, and environmental impacts, both locally and globally. The findings provide actionable insights and policy directions that support multiple SDGs, emphasizing the necessity for integrated, multi-scalar approaches to address the intertwined challenges of climate change, food security, and sustainability.

1. Relevant Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Addressed in the Article

1. SDG 2: Zero Hunger
   • The article discusses food security challenges due to climate change impacts on agricultural productivity and food production systems.
   • It emphasizes the need for climate adaptation behaviors to ensure stable and sustainable food production.
2. SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation
   • Water footprint and water sustainability are key components analyzed in the article.
   • Climate adaptation strategies include water-saving irrigation and water resource management to address water scarcity.
3. SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
   • The article evaluates energy consumption footprints associated with food production and land consolidation projects.
   • Energy efficiency improvements and reduced energy use are part of sustainable adaptation measures.
4. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • The core focus is on climate adaptation behaviors to mitigate adverse climate change impacts on agriculture.
   • Reduction of carbon footprints and greenhouse gas emissions through adaptation strategies is highlighted.
5. SDG 15: Life on Land
   • Ecological conservation and land restoration efforts on the Loess Plateau, such as land consolidation and erosion control, are discussed.
   • These contribute to sustainable land use and ecosystem protection.
6. SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production
   • Dietary shifts and food waste reduction are mentioned as consumption-side adjustments to reduce resource footprints.
7. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals
   • The article discusses international cooperation and trade policies related to grain trade and climate adaptation strategies.
   • It highlights the importance of global partnerships to coordinate food security and environmental sustainability.

2. Specific Targets Under the Identified SDGs

1. SDG 2: Zero Hunger
   • Target 2.3: By 2030, double the agricultural productivity and incomes of small-scale food producers through sustainable food production systems and resilient agricultural practices.
   • Target 2.4: Ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, help maintain ecosystems, and strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change.
2. SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation
   • Target 6.4: By 2030, substantially increase water-use efficiency across all sectors and ensure sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater to address water scarcity.
3. SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
   • Target 7.3: By 2030, double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency.
4. SDG 12: Responsible Consumption and Production
   • Target 12.3: By 2030, halve per capita global food waste at the retail and consumer levels and reduce food losses along production and supply chains.
5. SDG 13: Climate Action
   • Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries.
   • Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning.
6. SDG 15: Life on Land
   • Target 15.3: By 2030, combat desertification, restore degraded land and soil, including land affected by desertification, drought, and floods, and strive to achieve a land degradation-neutral world.
7. SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals
   • Target 17.16: Enhance the global partnership for sustainable development, complemented by multi-stakeholder partnerships that mobilize and share knowledge, expertise, technology, and financial resources.

3. Indicators Mentioned or Implied in the Article to Measure Progress

1. Food Production and Security Indicators
   • Grain yield (tons per hectare)
   • Cultivated area (hectares)
   • Food sustainability index (implied through yield and production stability)
2. Water Use Indicators
   • Water footprint (cubic meters of water used in food production)
   • Green water ratio (proportion of rainwater in total water use)
   • Water sustainability (assessment of water resource availability and use efficiency)
3. Energy Use Indicators
   • Energy footprint (megajoules or petajoules of energy consumed in food production)
   • Energy consumption related to irrigation and machinery use
4. Carbon Emissions Indicators
   • Carbon footprint (tons of CO₂ equivalent emissions from agricultural activities)
   • CO₂ emissions associated with land consolidation and food production
5. Climate Adaptation and Vulnerability Indicators
   • Spatial shift of food production centers (distance and elevation changes)
   • Yield reduction percentages under climate scenarios
   • Sensitivity of water, energy, carbon footprints to temperature and precipitation changes
6. Trade and Spillover Effects Indicators
   • Volume of grain imports and exports (million tons)
   • Reduction in global water, energy, and carbon footprints due to adaptation-induced trade changes

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: nature.com