Report on the RRFS-Smoke Model and its Contribution to Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary

A new experimental smoke forecasting model, the Rapid Refresh Forecast System-Smoke (RRFS-Smoke), has been developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This report analyzes the model’s capabilities and its significant contributions to achieving several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those concerning health, sustainable communities, and climate action. The model provides high-resolution, hourly-updated forecasts of wildfire smoke, enabling proactive measures to protect public health and enhance community resilience against climate-related environmental hazards.

Advancing Good Health and Well-being (SDG 3)

Mitigating Health Risks from Air Pollution

• The RRFS-Smoke model directly supports SDG 3 by providing advance warnings of high concentrations of PM2.5, fine particulate matter from wildfire smoke that poses severe health risks.
• These risks include asthma attacks, heart problems, and other respiratory and cardiovascular conditions, especially for vulnerable populations such as children, the elderly, and individuals with pre-existing health issues.
• By forecasting near-surface smoke levels, the model enables public health officials to issue timely alerts, allowing individuals and communities to take protective measures and reduce exposure to harmful pollutants.

Enhancing Public Health Management

1. Informed Decision-Making: Health departments can use the forecasts to advise on school closures, cancellation of outdoor events, and the opening of clean air shelters.
2. Workplace Safety: Businesses, particularly those with outdoor workers like construction and agriculture, can adjust schedules and provide protective equipment, safeguarding employee health.
3. Targeted Alerts: The model’s high resolution allows for precise, localized warnings, ensuring that interventions are targeted where they are most needed, maximizing their effectiveness in protecting community well-being.

Fostering Sustainable Cities and Climate Action (SDG 11 & SDG 13)

Building Resilience to Climate-Related Disasters

• Wildfires are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change. The RRFS-Smoke model is a critical tool for climate adaptation, directly addressing SDG 13 (Climate Action).
• It enhances the capacity of communities to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change by providing lead time to prepare for and respond to hazardous air quality events.
• This predictive capability is fundamental to building resilient infrastructure and communities (SDG 11) capable of withstanding and recovering from climate-related disasters.

Supporting Sustainable Urban Management

1. Local Planning: The model’s 1.9-mile resolution helps municipal authorities make granular decisions, such as rerouting traffic or closing specific parks, contributing to safer and more sustainable urban environments.
2. Emergency Services: Forecasters combine model data with local knowledge to provide tailored briefings for emergency managers, ensuring a coordinated and effective response.
3. Public Awareness: Accessible smoke maps and forecasts empower citizens to take personal action, fostering a culture of preparedness and resilience within the community.

Leveraging Innovation and Infrastructure (SDG 9)

Technological Advancements in Environmental Forecasting

• The development of RRFS-Smoke represents a significant innovation in scientific infrastructure (SDG 9), building upon the operational HRRR-Smoke model.
• Key features of this advanced system include:
• Hourly updates for near-real-time guidance.
• High-resolution mapping to resolve smoke gradients across towns and valleys.
• Vertically integrated smoke fields to distinguish between surface-level air quality and smoke plumes higher in the atmosphere.

Integration of Satellite Technology

1. The model’s accuracy is enhanced by integrating near-real-time satellite data, which detects active fires and estimates their emissions.
2. This reliance on advanced satellite platforms showcases the use of innovative technology to monitor and manage environmental challenges.
3. The synergy between satellite intelligence and atmospheric modeling provides a robust framework for delivering reliable and actionable forecasts.

Conclusion: A Tool for Sustainable Development

Future Outlook and Continued Improvement

The RRFS-Smoke model is undergoing continued testing and refinement with the goal of becoming a fully operational tool for the National Weather Service. Its implementation is a direct contribution to creating a more sustainable and resilient society. By providing forecasters and public officials with a fast, reliable, and detailed picture of smoke pollution, this innovation directly supports community-level decisions that protect health, enhance safety, and build resilience in the face of growing environmental challenges linked to climate change.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

• SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being

  The article extensively discusses the health dangers of wildfire smoke, specifically the fine particles known as PM2.5. It states these particles “can reach deep into the lungs and the bloodstream, raising risks for asthma attacks, heart problems, and early deaths.” This directly connects to ensuring healthy lives and promoting well-being for all ages.

• SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

  The focus on air quality and its impact on urban and local life links directly to this goal. The article explains how the smoke model helps “local officials decide where to cancel games, shift outdoor work, or open clean air spaces” and how it informs city-level health alerts. This relates to making cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable, particularly concerning environmental impacts like air pollution.

• SDG 13: Climate Action

  While not explicitly mentioning climate change, the article addresses a key climate-related hazard: wildfires. The development and use of the RRFS-Smoke model is a measure to “strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters.” The model provides an early warning system that allows communities to adapt to the immediate impacts of these events.

• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure

  The core of the article is the introduction of a new technological innovation, the RRFS-Smoke model. This model is described as “NOAA’s next flagship, hourly updating system.” This represents an advancement in scientific and technological infrastructure used for public safety and weather forecasting, which is central to SDG 9.

• SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

  The article mentions the impact of air quality on the workforce. It notes that “Construction crews, farm workers, and delivery services can adjust shifts or provide protective gear when the forecast shows unhealthy air.” This connects to promoting safe and secure working environments for all workers.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

1. Target 3.9: Substantially reduce deaths and illnesses from pollution

   The article’s entire premise is based on mitigating the health effects of air pollution from wildfire smoke. It explicitly mentions that the danger from smoke is driven by PM2.5 particles that cause “asthma attacks, heart problems, and early deaths.” The smoke model is a tool designed to help prevent these illnesses by providing warnings.

2. Target 3.d: Strengthen early warning and risk reduction for health

   The RRFS-Smoke model is a clear example of an early warning system for a national health risk. The article highlights how forecasters used the model to “brief agencies before the thickest air arrived,” demonstrating its role in strengthening the capacity for risk reduction and management of health threats.

3. Target 11.6: Reduce the adverse environmental impact of cities, especially air quality

   The model provides high-resolution (1.9 miles) smoke forecasts that help “local officials” and “public health departments” manage air quality. By predicting where near-surface smoke will be most concentrated, it allows cities to take targeted actions like issuing health alerts and opening “clean air spaces,” directly addressing the need to pay special attention to urban air quality.

4. Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards

   Wildfires are a major climate-related hazard. The smoke forecasting model is a tool that builds resilience and adaptive capacity. It gives “forecasters a fast, trustworthy smoke picture” which allows communities to make informed decisions about “health, mobility, and safety” in the face of a natural disaster, thereby adapting to its impacts.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

• Indicator 11.6.2: Annual mean levels of fine particulate matter (e.g. PM2.5)

  This indicator is directly and repeatedly referenced in the article. The text identifies “fine particles known as PM2.5” as the primary danger from smoke. The entire purpose of the RRFS-Smoke model is to forecast the concentration and location of PM2.5, which is the specific metric used to measure air pollution and issue health alerts. The model’s output showing a “surge in PM2.5 levels” is the direct trigger for public action.

• Implied Indicator: Existence and effectiveness of early warning systems

  While not a formal UN indicator number, the concept is central to Targets 3.d and 13.1. The article describes the features and validation of the RRFS-Smoke and HRRR-Smoke models. Their operational use by the National Weather Service, their hourly updates, high resolution, and the “lead time” they provide are all measures of the country’s capacity for early warning against health and climate-related hazards.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: earth.com