Deaths from air pollution could cost Southeast Asia nearly $600 billion by 2050, says new study – Fortune

Report on Air Pollution in Southeast Asia and its Implications for Sustainable Development Goals

Executive Summary

A recent study published in the Environment International journal projects that deaths linked to air pollution in Southeast Asia could increase by up to 10% by 2050. This trend is anticipated despite an overall decrease in regional pollution levels. The associated economic cost is estimated to be between $447 billion and $591 billion, representing a significant social value loss from premature mortality. These findings present a substantial challenge to the achievement of several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those concerning health, economic growth, and climate action.

Impact on Health and Well-being (SDG 3)

The projected increase in mortality directly threatens the progress of SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being), which aims to reduce premature deaths from non-communicable diseases. Key health-related findings include:

• Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ground-level ozone is linked to severe health conditions, including ischemic heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).
• Currently, over 90% of the 2.5 billion people in East and Southeast Asia are exposed to unsafe air quality levels, as defined by the World Health Organization.
• While overall PM2.5 concentrations are projected to decrease, pollution is expected to intensify in climate-vulnerable areas such as southern Thailand and the southern islands of Indonesia, leading to a net increase in pollution-related deaths.

Economic Repercussions and Sustainable Growth (SDG 8)

The substantial economic costs associated with air pollution undermine SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth). The economic impact is multifaceted, encompassing lost productivity, diminished economic output, and the intangible cost of premature death. The projected costs are detailed under different climate scenarios:

1. Low Emission Scenario: An estimated economic cost of $447 billion.
2. High Emission Scenario: An estimated economic cost of $591 billion.

These figures compound existing economic pressures, such as the World Bank’s estimate that Central, South, and Southeast Asia lost as much as 11% of their 2019 GDP due to PM2.5 exposure.

Environmental Factors and Climate Interconnectivity (SDG 11, SDG 13)

The report highlights the critical link between air quality, urban living, and climate change, impacting SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) and SDG 13 (Climate Action). Major sources of pollution include:

• Vehicle exhaust
• Forest fires
• Coal power plants

Climate change exacerbates the problem by altering weather systems that control the formation and dissipation of pollutants. For example, reduced rainfall can lead to the accumulation of airborne pollutants, directly compromising efforts under SDG 13 to combat climate change and its impacts.

Policy Responses and Regional Cooperation (SDG 7, SDG 17)

In response to these challenges, governments in the region are implementing measures that align with SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals). Notable initiatives include:

• National Policies: Singapore established a government advisory committee to set national air quality targets, and an Indonesian court has mandated more stringent air quality standards.
• Regional Partnerships: The development of the ASEAN Power Grid aims to integrate clean energy sources across the region. This initiative promotes a transition away from polluting sources like coal, directly supporting SDG 7, and exemplifies the regional cooperation essential for achieving the goals, as outlined in SDG 17.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. SDGs Addressed or Connected

   The article on air pollution in Southeast Asia addresses and connects to several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) due to its focus on health, economic, environmental, and energy-related issues.

   • SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being

     This is the most prominent SDG in the article. The text directly links air pollution to a projected 10% rise in deaths by 2050 and lists specific associated diseases such as “ischemic heart disease, stroke, lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).”

   • SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth

     The article quantifies the severe economic consequences of air pollution. It estimates the cost of pollution-linked deaths to be between “$447 billion” and “$591 billion” by 2050. This cost is described as a “broader welfare loss, such as lost productivity, economic output,” directly impacting economic growth.

   • SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities

     The article highlights that air pollution is a critical issue for the vast population of the region, stating that “Over 90% of East and Southeast Asia’s 2.5 billion people currently breathe air with unsafe levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5).” Since much of this population lives in urban areas, and sources include “vehicle exhaust,” the issue is directly tied to the environmental quality and sustainability of cities.

   • SDG 13: Climate Action

     The article explicitly connects climate change with air pollution. It explains that “Climate change affects the weather systems that control how air pollution forms, spreads, and dissipates,” citing reduced rainfall as an example. The study’s use of different “emissions scenarios: low, medium and high” further links the analysis to climate action and mitigation strategies.

   • SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy

     The article identifies “coal power plants” as a significant source of air pollution. In response, it mentions the “ASEAN Power Grid, an initiative that will promote the development and integration of clean energy sources,” which directly relates to the goal of transitioning to cleaner energy systems.

2. Specific Targets Identified

   Based on the article’s content, several specific SDG targets can be identified:

   • Target 3.9

     “By 2030, substantially reduce the number of deaths and illnesses from hazardous chemicals and air, water and soil pollution and contamination.” The article’s central theme is the projected increase in “deaths linked to air pollution” and the specific illnesses caused by it, making this target directly relevant.

   • Target 8.4

     “Improve progressively, through 2030, global resource efficiency in consumption and production and endeavour to decouple economic growth from environmental degradation…” The article’s discussion of the massive economic losses—up to “$591 billion” and “11% of its 2019 GDP”—due to environmental degradation (air pollution) highlights the urgent need to decouple economic well-being from pollution.

   • Target 11.6

     “By 2030, reduce the adverse per capita environmental impact of cities, including by paying special attention to air quality…” The article’s focus on the unsafe air breathed by over 90% of the population and the mention of urban pollution sources like vehicle exhaust directly align with this target’s emphasis on improving urban air quality.

   • Target 13.2

     “Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning.” The article mentions several government actions that represent this integration, such as Singapore’s “government advisory committee on ambient air quality” and Indonesia’s court-ordered establishment of “more stringent national and regional air quality standards.”

   • Target 7.2

     “By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.” The mention of the “ASEAN Power Grid” initiative to integrate “clean energy sources” is a direct example of a regional strategy aimed at achieving this target, as it aims to move away from polluting sources like coal.

3. Indicators Mentioned or Implied

   The article mentions or implies several indicators that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets:

   • Indicator for Target 3.9

     The article directly implies Indicator 3.9.1: Mortality rate attributed to household and ambient air pollution. The entire study is based on projecting the number and rate of “pollution-linked deaths” and identifying the specific diseases that cause them.

   • Indicator for Target 8.4

     While not a formal SDG indicator, the article provides a clear metric for the economic impact of environmental degradation: the economic cost of pollution measured in monetary value and as a percentage of GDP. The figures “$591 billion” and “11% of its 2019 GDP” serve as direct measures of this impact.

   • Indicator for Target 11.6

     The article explicitly refers to Indicator 11.6.2: Annual mean levels of fine particulate matter (e.g. PM2.5) in cities. It repeatedly mentions “fine particulate matter (PM2.5)” and “ground-level ozone” as the key pollutants and notes that their concentration is projected to decrease overall, even as it increases in vulnerable areas.

   • Indicator for Target 13.2

     The article implies progress through qualitative indicators, such as the number and scope of national policies and institutional mechanisms addressing climate change and air quality. The examples of “Singapore formed a government advisory committee” and “an Indonesian court ordered the country to establish more stringent… standards” serve as evidence of such integration.

   • Indicator for Target 7.2

     Progress towards this target is implied by the establishment of regional initiatives aimed at increasing the share of clean energy. The “ASEAN Power Grid” initiative itself serves as an indicator of commitment and action towards integrating renewable energy sources across the region.

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

   SDGs	Targets	Indicators
   SDG 3: Good Health and Well-being	Target 3.9: Substantially reduce deaths and illnesses from air pollution.	Indicator 3.9.1 (Implied): Mortality rate attributed to ambient air pollution (e.g., projected 10% rise in deaths).
   SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth	Target 8.4: Decouple economic growth from environmental degradation.	Indicator (Implied): Economic cost of pollution as a monetary value and percentage of GDP (e.g., “$591 billion” cost, “11% of its 2019 GDP” loss).
   SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities	Target 11.6: Reduce the adverse per capita environmental impact of cities, focusing on air quality.	Indicator 11.6.2 (Mentioned): Annual mean levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5).
   SDG 13: Climate Action	Target 13.2: Integrate climate change measures into national policies.	Indicator (Implied): Establishment of national policies and institutional mechanisms (e.g., Singapore’s advisory committee, Indonesia’s air quality standards).
   SDG 7: Affordable and Clean Energy	Target 7.2: Increase the share of renewable energy.	Indicator (Implied): Regional initiatives to integrate clean energy (e.g., the ASEAN Power Grid).

Source: fortune.com