From cold war to ‘hot conflict’: Michael Kovrig on confronting the Communist threat – Yahoo News Canada

Report on Geopolitical Challenges and Sustainable Development Goals: An Analysis of Michael Kovrig’s Perspective

1.0 Introduction and Background

This report analyzes the geopolitical challenges posed by the People’s Republic of China, as detailed by Michael Kovrig, a former Canadian diplomat and senior advisor at the International Crisis Group. The analysis focuses on the implications for several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those concerning peace, economic stability, and international partnerships.

• Michael Kovrig was arbitrarily detained by Chinese authorities for 1,019 days, an experience he describes as being held hostage.
• His detention is widely seen as a retaliatory measure for Canada’s arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou.
• This event highlights significant challenges to international norms and the rule of law, directly impacting the framework of the SDGs.

2.0 Violations of SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

Mr. Kovrig’s ordeal serves as a case study in the erosion of principles central to SDG 16, which aims to promote peaceful and inclusive societies, provide access to justice for all, and build effective, accountable institutions.

• Arbitrary Detention: The abduction and prolonged confinement of Mr. Kovrig, including nearly six months in solitary confinement, represent a severe breach of justice and human rights.
• Erosion of International Norms: The use of “hostage diplomacy” undermines the foundational institutions and agreements that ensure global peace and security.
• Failure of Engagement: Mr. Kovrig notes that the long-held belief that economic engagement would lead to political liberalization in China has proven to be a “fantasy,” indicating a failure to foster the institutional changes envisioned by SDG 16.

3.0 Economic Strategy and its Impact on SDG 8 and SDG 9

The report details China’s economic strategy, which presents significant risks to SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) and SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure) for other nations.

3.1 Risks to Sustainable Economic Growth (SDG 8)

• China’s geopolitical goals are intrinsically linked to its economic activities, with the potential to weaponize trade for political leverage.
• The stated ambition is to monopolize global production, which threatens to hollow out the industrial base of Western economies, jeopardizing sustainable economic growth and decent work.

3.2 Threats to Industry and Innovation (SDG 9)

• Cooperation in high-technology sectors is deemed untenable due to a consistent pattern of siphoning advanced technology for military purposes.
• This practice directly undermines efforts to build resilient infrastructure and foster inclusive and sustainable industrialization.
• The dominance achieved in strategic industries, such as shipbuilding, demonstrates a critical national security concern that compromises the industrial capacity of other nations, which is essential for deterrence and stability.

4.0 Geopolitical Ambitions and Global Security

China’s overarching goal is to reshape the global order, which poses a direct threat to the peaceful, collaborative environment required to achieve the SDGs.

• Regional Dominance: The primary objective is to establish dominance in East Asia and the Western Pacific, challenging the existing security architecture.
• Reshaping Global Governance: China seeks to alter the international system to align with its authoritarian preferences, creating a hostile environment for the liberal values underpinning many SDGs.
• Increased Risk of Conflict: The military buildup and strategic industrial hollowing-out of potential adversaries increase the likelihood of conflict, fundamentally opposing the core mission of SDG 16 to promote peace.

5.0 Recommendations for a Sustainable Path Forward through SDG 17

Mr. Kovrig proposes a strategic response for Canada and its allies, centered on the principles of SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals), to build a more resilient and sustainable international order.

1. Strengthen Alliances: Double down on partnerships with like-minded, democratic nations to reinforce the multilateral, liberal order through trade agreements and cooperation on standard-setting.
2. Diversify Economic Partnerships: Prioritize stronger trade and investment relations with partners in Europe, the Indo-Pacific (e.g., Japan, South Korea), ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa to reduce economic dependency and build a stronger negotiating position.
3. Establish Clear Boundaries: Approach relations with China from a position of confidence and strength, with a clear understanding of non-negotiable principles and values.
4. Promote a Positive Alternative: Develop and promote a compelling narrative for developing countries, backed by substantive partnerships, that presents a more attractive model for development and cooperation than that offered by China.

Analysis of Sustainable Development Goals in the Article

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article discusses issues of international relations, justice, economic competition, and security, which connect to several Sustainable Development Goals. The primary SDGs addressed are:

• SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions: This is central to the article, focusing on the arbitrary detention of individuals, the nature of authoritarian regimes, and the risk of international conflict.
• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals: The article repeatedly emphasizes the need for international alliances, trade partnerships, and cooperation among like-minded nations to address geopolitical and economic challenges.
• SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure: The discussion on monopolizing global production, hollowing out industrial bases, and competition in strategic industries like technology and shipbuilding directly relates to this goal.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the article’s content, several specific SDG targets can be identified:

SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

• Target 16.1: Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere. The article addresses this target by highlighting the risk of a “hot conflict with China in the next decade or two” over issues like Taiwan or the South China Sea. It emphasizes the importance of “deterrence” to prevent such a conflict from happening.
• Target 16.3: Promote the rule of law at the national and international levels and ensure equal access to justice for all. This target is directly relevant to Michael Kovrig’s personal experience. He describes being “abducted,” held “hostage for 1,019 days,” and subjected to “relentless interrogation.” This account illustrates a severe violation of the rule of law and a lack of access to justice.
• Target 16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions at all levels. The article critiques China’s “Communist authoritarian one-party state” and its ambition to “reshape global governance so that it’s more amenable to its own authoritarian preferences.” This stands in direct opposition to the goal of developing accountable and transparent institutions.

SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

• Target 17.10: Promote a universal, rules-based, open, non-discriminatory and equitable multilateral trading system. The article discusses the “fantasy” that bringing China into a “liberal trading order” would lead to democratization. It contrasts this with China’s approach where “everything can be potentially weaponized for leverage,” undermining a rules-based system.
• Target 17.16: Enhance the global partnership for sustainable development, complemented by multi-stakeholder partnerships. Kovrig explicitly advocates for this target, stating, “We need to double down on alliances with like-minded partners to try to shore up as much of the multilateral liberal order as possible through trade agreements.” He suggests prioritizing relations with “Europe, with the Indo-Pacific countries, with ASEAN, Latin America, Africa.”

SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure

• Target 9.2: Promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization. The article raises concerns about this target being undermined in Western countries. It mentions China’s geopolitical goal to “monopolize global production and hollowing out the industrial base of western economies,” which threatens the industrial capacity of nations like Canada.
• Target 9.5: Enhance scientific research, upgrade the technological capabilities of industrial sectors. This target is addressed in a cautionary way. The article warns that “the Chinese government will siphon off any advanced technology that it doesn’t already have and then turn it to military purposes,” which discourages the open cooperation needed to advance technology for sustainable development.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

The article provides several qualitative and quantitative points that can serve as indicators for the identified targets:

SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

• Indicator for Target 16.3: The specific duration of Michael Kovrig’s detention, “1,019 days,” serves as a stark, concrete indicator of arbitrary detention and the absence of due process. The number of individuals subjected to similar politically motivated detentions can be a measure of the state of the rule of law.

SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

• Indicator for Target 17.16: The article explicitly mentions the “Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement” as an example of a beneficial alliance. The number and scope of such multilateral trade and security agreements formed by Canada and its allies can be used as an indicator of progress in strengthening global partnerships.

SDG 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure

• Indicator for Target 9.2: The article points to a specific metric of industrial dominance by stating that China’s navy “now has more ships in the water than the U.S. navy does,” a direct result of its control over the “ship-building” industry. The share of global manufacturing output in strategic sectors like this serves as a key indicator of industrial concentration and potential vulnerabilities.

4. Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: ca.news.yahoo.com