Global crop yield declines will not discriminate between rich and poor nations – Earth.com

Report on Climate Change Impacts on Global Crop Yields and Sustainable Development Goals

A new global dataset released on the UNDP Human Climate Horizons platform, developed with the Climate Impact Lab, reveals a direct correlation between rising global temperatures and declining crop yields. This trend poses a significant threat to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those related to hunger, poverty, and climate action.

SDG 2 (Zero Hunger): Direct Threats to Global Food Security

The primary finding indicates a severe risk to global food supplies, directly challenging the objectives of SDG 2. Climate-induced stress on agriculture undermines efforts to end hunger and ensure food security.

• Caloric Reduction: Each degree Celsius of global warming is projected to reduce the global food supply by approximately 120 calories per person per day. A 3°C rise is equated to the loss of an entire meal for every individual.
• Staple Crop Vulnerability: The analysis projects significant yield declines for six essential staple crops by the year 2100 under high-emissions scenarios.
  1. Corn
  2. Wheat
  3. Soy
  4. Cassava
  5. Sorghum
  6. Rice (lesser decline)
• Amplified Hunger: With over 800 million people already facing food insecurity, shrinking agricultural yields will exacerbate this crisis, creating ripple effects on health and human development, which are central to SDG 2 and SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being).

SDG 13 (Climate Action): The Critical Role of Emissions Mitigation

The report underscores the direct link between policy decisions on emissions and agricultural outcomes, highlighting the urgency of SDG 13. The severity of the impact on global food systems is contingent on the world’s commitment to climate action.

• Net-Zero Scenario: If nations achieve net-zero emissions, global crop yields are projected to fall by approximately 11%.
• High-Emissions Scenario: If emissions continue to climb, the projected decline in crop yields doubles to 24%.

This data demonstrates that while mitigation does not eliminate all losses, it can halve the projected damage, making robust climate policy essential for safeguarding food production.

SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities) and SDG 1 (No Poverty): Asymmetrical Impacts on Vulnerable Nations

The analysis reveals a significant disparity in how climate change will affect agricultural systems, threatening to widen inequalities (SDG 10) and reverse progress on poverty reduction (SDG 1).

• Geographic Disparity: The most severe agricultural losses are concentrated in the world’s poorest regions, particularly sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia, where median national yields could be cut by 25-30%.
• Economic Vulnerability: These regions often lack the financial resources and infrastructure to adapt to yield shocks, increasing the risk of widespread economic crises and threatening livelihoods dependent on agriculture (SDG 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth).
• Threats to Major Exporters: Developed nations are not immune. Major agricultural producers, including the United States, face potential yield drops of up to 40% for crops like wheat and soy, which could destabilize global trade and food prices.

SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure) and SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals): Pathways for Adaptation

The report emphasizes that targeted adaptation, driven by innovation and collaboration, is crucial for building resilience. This aligns with the goals of SDG 9 and SDG 17.

• Limited Efficacy of Current Adaptation: Farmer-level adjustments, such as changing crop varieties and fertilizer strategies, are projected to offset only one-third of climate-related losses if emissions remain high.
• Innovation in Forecasting: Initiatives like the Human-Centered Weather Forecasts Initiative use AI to provide actionable, location-specific weather intelligence to millions of farmers, enabling better decision-making.
• Strategic Investments: To effectively blunt climate impacts, targeted investments are required in:
  1. Heat- and drought-tolerant seed systems
  2. Advanced irrigation technologies
  3. Financial support and instruments for farmers

Analysis of the Article in Relation to Sustainable Development Goals

1. Which SDGs are addressed or connected to the issues highlighted in the article?

The article primarily addresses issues related to the following Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs):

• SDG 2: Zero Hunger

  The core theme of the article is the threat to global food security due to climate change. It directly discusses shrinking crop yields, the impact on the global food supply, and the fact that “More than 800 million people already experience periods without enough to eat.” This aligns perfectly with the goal of ending hunger and ensuring food security.

• SDG 13: Climate Action

  The article is fundamentally about the consequences of climate change. It explains how “each additional degree Celsius of global warming cuts the global food supply” and emphasizes the need for mitigation through “net-zero emissions” and adaptation strategies to “blunt impacts.” This directly connects to the goal of taking urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.

• SDG 1: No Poverty

  The article highlights the disproportionate impact on the world’s most vulnerable populations. It states that “Many of the world’s poorest nations face steep agricultural losses,” which threatens not only food security but also “sustain livelihoods.” This links the climate crisis to poverty, as agricultural decline can trap people in poverty or worsen their economic situation.

• SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

  The article mentions several collaborations aimed at addressing the crisis. These include the partnership between the UNDP and the Climate Impact Lab to create the dataset, and the “Human-Centered Weather Forecasts Initiative” at the University of Chicago partnering with the Indian government. These examples illustrate the importance of global and multi-stakeholder partnerships to achieve sustainable development.

2. What specific targets under those SDGs can be identified based on the article’s content?

Based on the article’s content, the following specific SDG targets can be identified:

1. Target 2.1: End hunger and ensure access to safe, nutritious and sufficient food

   The article directly relates to this target by highlighting the growing threat to food access. It states that warming “cuts the global food supply by about 120 calories per person per day” and notes that over 800 million people already face food insecurity, a situation that shrinking yields will “amplify.”

2. Target 2.4: Ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices

   The article discusses the vulnerability of current agricultural systems to climate change, with projections of yield declines for staple crops like corn, wheat, and soy. It also points towards resilient practices, such as developing “heat- and drought-tolerant varieties,” improving irrigation, and providing farmers with better weather intelligence to make adaptive decisions.

3. Target 13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards

   This target is addressed through the discussion of adaptation measures. The article mentions farmer-level adjustments like “switching varieties, shifting planting dates, and changing fertilizer strategies” and highlights initiatives like providing 38 million Indian farmers with “early, actionable guidance on monsoon timing” to help them adapt to changing weather patterns.

4. Target 1.5: Build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events

   The article emphasizes the “unequal climate costs,” noting that “the world’s poorest nations face steep agricultural losses,” particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia. It points out that these regions have “smaller financial cushions and weaker infrastructure,” making them highly exposed to yield shocks and increasing their vulnerability.

5. Target 17.16: Enhance the Global Partnership for Sustainable Development

   The entire report discussed in the article is a product of a partnership between the “UNDP Human Climate Horizons platform” and the “Climate Impact Lab.” This collaboration to produce and disseminate critical data is a clear example of a global partnership working towards sustainable development goals.

3. Are there any indicators mentioned or implied in the article that can be used to measure progress towards the identified targets?

Yes, the article mentions and implies several quantitative and qualitative indicators that can be used to measure progress:

• Percentage decline in global crop yields

  This is a primary indicator used throughout the article. It provides specific figures, such as a projected fall of “about 11 percent” with net-zero emissions versus a “24 percent” decline if emissions continue to climb. This directly measures the resilience of agricultural systems (Target 2.4) and the impact of climate action (Target 13.1).

• Per capita daily calorie supply

  The article quantifies the impact of warming on food availability, stating that “each additional degree Celsius of global warming cuts the global food supply by about 120 calories per person per day.” This metric can be used to track progress towards ensuring sufficient food for all (Target 2.1).

• Number of people experiencing food insecurity

  The article provides a baseline figure: “More than 800 million people already experience periods without enough to eat.” Tracking this number over time would be a direct indicator of progress towards ending hunger (Target 2.1).

• Number of farmers receiving climate and weather information

  The article mentions a specific project that gave “38 million farmers early, actionable guidance on monsoon timing.” This number serves as an indicator for the implementation of adaptation strategies and building resilience among vulnerable agricultural communities (Targets 13.1 and 1.5).

• Level of global warming (in degrees Celsius)

  The article frames its projections based on different warming scenarios, such as a 3-degree warming scenario. The global average temperature is a fundamental indicator for measuring the scale of the climate crisis and the effectiveness of mitigation efforts (Target 13.1).

4. Summary Table of SDGs, Targets, and Indicators

Source: earth.com